Sean Alvarez

THE PLAY: Georgia -6.5 (-107)

While the Georgia Bulldogs are not the same type of Georgia team that we have seen in recent years, Georgia is still sitting on an 8-1 record with their only loss being a 3-point margin to Alabama. Gunner Stockton has been impressive on paper with a 15/2 TD/INT ratio and completing 69.4% of his passes but I would like to see him complete more passes in pivotal times within games. Nate Frazier leads the running game with a solid 5.7 YPC average and he is spelled by Chauncey Bowens who has a 5.5 YPC average while Gunner has been able to add production as well with his legs from quarterback. The Bulldogs will be without Colbie Young at receiver which is a blow to lose their 2nd receiver, but Dillon Bell and Noah Thomas have stepped up in recent games to add support to their #1 in Zachariah Branch. Texas has been vulnerable to the passing game this season while giving up 235 yards in the air per game, so Georgia can use the depth they have at receiver to support Gunner Stockton in the passing game.

Arch Manning has played well against weak defenses this year but has played “tight” against a solid team like they will face this Saturday against Georgia. Manning was able to throw for 328 and 346 yards against weak pass defenses in Vanderbilt and Mississippi State but struggled against Oklahoma and Kentucky while throwing for 166 and 132 yards. Arch adds a bit of production with his legs while averaging 2.9 YPC but they lean on Quintrevion Wisner at running back, however, he has averaged just 3.8 YPC this season and faces a tough Georgia run defense. The Bulldogs have a mediocre secondary, so the success for the Longhorns on offense is going to depend on Arch getting the ball to the biggest playmaker for the Texas offense in Ryan Wingo who is averaging 19.1 yards per reception on 31 catches this season. 

I don’t trust Arch in big spots, and I think this Georgia defense is going to send pressure all game rather than leaning on their secondary in a loud Athens environment. I think this is too many points to lay against a good Georgia defense at home, so I am going to lay the points with Georgia here.