Premier League Predictions - Best EPL Bets for November 22

2-Team Parlay: Chelsea ML & Genk ML
Odds at Time of Release: +122
Line Parameter: Line good to +100

Leicester vs Chelsea
EPL, Saturday, 7:30am ET

Early kickoff in the EPL, and those are always tricky, but Leicester are hit with a lot of injuries and suspensions, with 4-5 midfielders and forwards being at least questionable to play (Vardy, Fatawu are questionable, Buonannotte is suspended). Even with those players on the pitch it would be quite hard to stop Chelsea. 

Chelsea might have won just 1 of L/4 in all competitions, but two of those were away matches at Newcastle and Manchester United, and the other one was a home draw against Arsenal. Chelsea are finally playing good soccer under Maresca, they have found a solid starting lineup without the experiments of seasons past, and they are eager to return to winning ways against Leicester here. 

Leicester have the 2nd worst home xG difference with -0.75/game, while Chelsea have been overperforming a little bit on the road, they have a -0.41 xG difference/game but with a significantly tougher schedule (Liverpool, Man United) than Leicester at home (Nottingham, Bournemouth, Everton, Tottenham). 

Chelsea are sitting 3rd and have tough matches coming up, so if they want to stay inside the top-4 they need to beat teams like Leicester (who, again, have a LOT of injury concerns up front). 

Take Chelsea ML as the first leg of our parlay

Genk vs Charleroi
Belgium, Saturday, 2:45pm ET

Belgian league leaders Genk met a tough loss on the road prior to the international break, but they are now back home, where they have won 6 in a row (and 6 of 7 home matches so far in the season). They are hosting Charleroi (#10), who are bad on the road (W1 D1 L5), and are missing two of their three goalkeepers, forcing an inexperienced 20-year-old to start. 

Genk have the 3rd best home xG difference/game with +10.7, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 5. Charleroi have a -0.01 xG difference/game on the road, scoring 7 and conceding 12 goals. 

Genk have won 8 of L/9 home matches against Charleroi and are having a really strong season this year, with Charleroi struggling mightily on the road. Genk win this one, the question is by how much. We don't want to get involved with the spread here, just taking Genk to win as a parlay piece.

Take Genk ML as the second leg of our parlay.

Take 3% on a 2-Team Parlay with Chelsea ML and Genk ML (+122), line good to +100

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

England Premier League

(200005) Brentford at (200006) Everton

Everton had a brutal start to the season, allowing 3-4-3-3 goals in their first four matches.  Granted, the schedule was rough facing Brighton, Tottenham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa, respectively.  However, since then, Everton has allow a total of just four goals in their last seven matches, and never more than one in any match.  That has led to just one loss in those seven matches.

The Toffees success, or rather, ability to stay up in the EPL the last few seasons, has relied on them doing just enough against bottom half sides like they have faced earning wins or draws by their defense.  I expect this match to play out very similarly even though Brentford has played in many more higher-scoring games.

On the road though, Brentford has faced Liverpool, City, Tottenham, United and Fulham, losing all five and conceding at least two goals in each.  Fulham obviously the outlier there, but a rough schedule that will lighten up and their defense should do better against weak offensive teams like Everton.

TAKE UNDER 2.5 GOALS

Line Parameter: 3% to -120, 2.5% to -130

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago