College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets October 27

Moving on Middle Tennessee State at the open of trading for week #9 college football. This is a Wednesday kickoff and the market is mostly at (-3). Do note if you shop around you can get down on MTSU at -2.5 (-120). I will be back with analysis on why.

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Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

It’s purely accidental that San Diego State got involved with a scoreline last week at Fort Collins that looks pulled from the basketball game between Brian Dutcher's Aztec hoopsters and Ali Farokhmanesh's Colorado State. Rather, that eye-popping 56-49 loss to the Rams was more down to the oddities of this particular CSU edition team that plays games more resembling video football, and not suggesting some return to the Air Coryell roots of the SDSU program back to the glorious 60s and early 70s. Unfortunately for Aztec QB Jayden Denegal, an ankle injury prevented him from gaining some confidence and padding his stats last week against the Rams, instead allowing freshman Stone Saunders to pretend he was Don Horn, Dennis Shaw or Brian Sipe for 60 minutes against CSU’s non-defense and pass for a whopping 369 yards and a couple of TDs. As Denegal has only passed for as many as 200 yards five times the past two seasons, with 256 the high, head coach Sean Lewis has already made the call to stick with Saunders at least for this week as the 3-5 Aztecs are running out of time to secure bowl eligibility. That carrot has already been removed from 1-7 Washington State, but the Cougs really haven’t played that badly in recent weeks, hanging within earshot of possible playoff contenders like Arizona, Oregon State, and Boise State, and actually level with the Pac-12 frontrunner Broncos at 10 apiece into the fourth quarter last week at Pullman before Boise broke loose for three late TDs in a deceiving 31-10 final. After hiding freshman QB Owen Eshelman for the first half of the season, first-year head coach Kirby Moore has turned him loose the past two weeks. Eshelman passed for 480 yards as the Cougs have at least been displaying a sharper edge than when UC Davis transfer Caden Pinnick was glad to dink-and-dunk to his heart’s content without really throwing the ball downfield the first month of the campaign. Wazzu has also been facing some better teams than San Diego State and making a fist of it in recent weeks; against the Aztecs, that sort of effort can possibly get rewarded at Snapdragon. Play Washington State

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Tulane offers value as a double-digit road favorite against a Charlotte team plagued by offensive inefficiency, defensive deficiencies, and turnovers. The 49ers allow 40.6 points and 465.1 yards per game, ranking 137th nationally in scoring defense. Charlotte's secondary is particularly vulnerable, allowing 71.8% completions, 9.0 yards per attempt, and 17 passing touchdowns. The 49ers also rank 136th in passing success rate allowed (51.8%), providing Tulane opportunities to exploit mismatches through the air. The Green Wave should also find success on the ground, ranking first nationally in rushing explosiveness (1.41) against a Charlotte defense surrendering 187.1 rushing yards per game.

Charlotte's offense is equally problematic, averaging just 19.1 points and 310.9 yards per game while ranking 131st nationally in offensive success rate (36.2%). The 49ers rank 129th in rushing success rate (36.6%) and 137th in stuff rate (25.7%), making sustained drives difficult. Tulane owns a substantial defensive advantage, allowing just 24.6 points per game compared to Charlotte's 40.6. The 49ers have also committed 16 turnovers and own a -12 turnover margin, ranking 138th nationally. Despite last week's 38-31 upset victory at Temple, Charlotte remains winless at home and has scored just 15 combined points in its previous two home games. The 49ers' slow offensive tempo (28.9 seconds per play) further limits their ability to overcome substantial deficits. Tulane's favorable offensive matchups, superior personnel, and Charlotte's inability to protect the football create an attractive opportunity to lay the points.

My technical database provides additional support for Tulane:

• Road favorites priced between -6.5 and -19 points, coming off a game as favorites against opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, have gone 692-577 ATS (54.5%) since 2013 under qualifying conditions, generating a +4.1% ROI;

• Charlotte has produced a 5-22 ATS record (18.5%) at home since November 2021, generating a -55.6% ROI for 49ers backers;

• Home teams coming off an outright victory as double-digit underdogs, when not favored by 19 points or more in their next game, have gone 125-152 ATS (45.1%) since 2009, generating a negative ROI;

• Home underdogs coming off an upset win as underdogs of more than 17 points have gone 20-31 ATS (39.2%) since 1989, generating a -16.0% ROI;

• American Conference favorites priced between -7 and -12 points have gone 118-94 ATS (55.7%) since 2014, generating a +6.3% ROI;

• Double-digit conference home underdogs coming off a conference win have gone 97-142 ATS (40.6%) since 2009, generating a -13.4% ROI;

• Conference home underdogs priced between +10 and +21 off a conference win have gone 83-123 ATS (40.3%) since 2009, generating a -14.0% ROI;

• Conference home underdogs of more than +3 entering off an upset road win as double-digit underdogs have gone 31-43 ATS (41.9%) since 2012, generating a -10.9% ROI;

• Home teams losing by an average of at least seven points per game, coming off a contest in which the teams combined for at least 60 points, have gone 534-669 ATS (44.4%) since 2009, generating a -6.2% ROI;

• Home teams trailing by an average of at least six points at halftime, coming off a game in which the teams combined for at least 60 points, have gone 506-651 ATS (43.7%) since 1989, generating a -7.4% ROI.

Tulane's offensive matchup advantages and superior personnel provide a favorable foundation for laying the points, while Charlotte's historically poor home ATS performance and turnover problems strengthen the technical case. Take Tulane as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, October 30.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Miami Florida Hurricanes (ATS) | Good until -16.5.

Miami might be on the road this weekend. But, that shouldn't deceive you from what to expect. The Hurricanes are ranked as the #1 team in the country and are averaging 44.3 points per game which is also #1 in FBS. North Carolina has maneuvered it's way to a 4-3 season (solid). But the Tar Heels just lost in OT against Syracuse at home and could be feeling the effects of that game today. Go with Miami.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

After two straight losses, the Longhorns got back on track against Ole Miss last week. They jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead but allowed the Rebels to come all the way back to tie the game at 24-24. Unphased, the Longhorns marched down the field to reclaim the lead. In the end, they won 34-27. It may not have been pretty but I like the way they responded to Mississippi's comeback. With order restored and stepping down in class to host the Bulldogs, I expect a much bigger win for Texas this week. The Bulldogs are 0-3 their last three games and they've been outscored by a combined score of 110-38. The last time (2024) that the Longhorns hosted the Bulldogs, they won by 22 points, 35-13. Expect them to win by at least that many one again.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago