College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets August 28

This is a free play on Hawaii.

Timmy Chang has completely turned around Hawaii's football program, and last year they won nine games for the first time in a long time. They come into 2026 with one of the top quarterbacks in the conference (Micah Alejado), and they are projected to compete for the Mountain West Championship. Stanford has a first time head coach, and a transfer quarterback (Davis Warren). It may take a while for the Stanford offense to start clicking, and I am expecting them to tread water in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

9-0 (100%) active CFB run (+42% PROFIT).

46-25 (65%) CFB L 365 Days (+71% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked Handicapper Overall L Calendar Year= Over (+100%) PROFIT.

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Under.

The Tar Heels defense showed promise at the tail end of last season, and despite all his shortcomings I still have faith in Belichick to recruit and develop defensive talent. The Horned Frogs are breaking in a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, so a slow start might not be a surprise. The weather in Ireland might also be a factor, so it might be tough for either team to pile on the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

North Carolina +9.5

SP+ treats the two defenses as essentially interchangeable, TCU 37th and Carolina 36th, and gives Carolina the special teams edge, 32nd against TCU's 87th. Every bit of the projected gap is offense: TCU 30th, Carolina 79th. That gap rests on two projections pulling in opposite directions. Carolina's offense finished 124th last season and is being marked up 45 spots, while TCU's is held basically in place, 31st to 30th, after losing a three year starter Josh Hoover to Indiana. He threw for over 3,000 yards with the Horned Frogs. His replacement is Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer who has never taken an FBS snap, working under a new offensive coordinator.

For the Tar Heels, Billy Edwards Jr. was named the starter days before kickoff out of a competition Bill Belichick described as having "no leader in the clubhouse,”. However Bobby Petrino is now the OC in Chapel Hill.

DC Steve Belichick is on indefinite medical leave and is not traveling with no interim named, and the general manager is on administrative leave. Both teams are unknowable. The market is pricing only one of them that way, and it is doing that because the public remembers TCU 48-14 last season.

Some venue history: Unders are 4-1 at Aviva Stadium, favorites are 1-3-1 against the number, underdogs have won outright in three of the last four, and the last three games in Dublin all landed on exactly 45 points. There are books at 8.5, so check the Oddslogic screen and shop it. But the cleaner expression is the moneyline. Carolina is +255 and my number says fair is closer to +200. That is a value I look for each and every week in college football.  You are laying a premium, on a neutral field, internationally with an unproven Quarterback if you are betting TCU.

North Carolina +9.5

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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USC enters Saturday’s opener with a massive advantage in overall talent, depth and returning quarterback production, making the Trojans an attractive play even as a substantial favorite. Quarterback Jayden Maiava returns after throwing for a Big Ten-best 3,711 yards in 2025, and USC finished fifth nationally at 296 passing yards per game while averaging 35.8 points. Lincoln Riley’s offense should have an excellent matchup against a San Jose State defense that surrendered 32.5 points per game last season and ranked 115th nationally against the pass at 245.3 yards allowed per game. The Spartans were particularly vulnerable to explosive passing attacks, allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, while USC generated an outstanding 9.2 yards per pass last season.

San Jose State enters 2026 in major transition after a 3-9 season. Third-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo is essentially overseeing a full reset, with the Spartans ranking 137th in returning production and sitting in the bottom third of VSIN’s Stability Score. That lack of continuity is a serious concern against a USC team that can build an immediate multi-score lead. Offensively, San Jose State averaged only 21.4 points per game last season, ranked 111th nationally in rushing, and committed 27 turnovers. USC also added veteran defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, who inherits a deep linebacker group that should allow him to attack an offense likely to become one-dimensional. If the Spartans cannot establish the run, their quarterback could be forced into obvious passing downs against a defense built to create pressure and negative plays.

USC has also dominated this series historically, winning all six meetings by double digits, including a 56-28 win under Riley in 2023. Riley has consistently overwhelmed this level of competition, with USC scoring 73, 48, 56 and 66 points in its recent games against its first non-Power Conference opponent of the season. Since 2013, college football favorites of -36 or more are 23-0 SU and 18-5 ATS (78.3%) in the opening weeks of the season. Even better, large favorites of greater than -37 are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, winning by an average of 49.5 points and covering the spread by an average of 8.7 points per game. Over the last four seasons, college football teams with seventeen or more returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the regular season versus opponents returning fewer starters.

With USC owning substantial advantages in quarterback play, offensive explosiveness, defensive personnel and overall depth, the Trojans have the profile to seize control early and turn this into a one-sided season opener. Lay the points with USC as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 29.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(307) New Mexico State at (308) Florida State: Total

Total Over 52.5 (-112)

WEEK 0

New Mexico State @ Florida State

OVER 52.5

Florida State needs a strong start and big year for coach Mike Norvell as he sits squarely on the HOT SEAT.

Florida state showed the ability to put up points last season vs weak competition

77 vs East Texas A&M and 66 vs Kent State. Starter Ashton Daniels and back up Malachi Marshall should have the Noles offense moving up and down the field all night long.

Total was sitting at 53 the last few days and has ticked up. Grab it now.

Prediction: FSU 42 New Mexico State 14

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Hawaii enters Saturday’s matchup with the continuity and experience advantages I want when backing a road underdog in a season opener. Timmy Chang is entering his fifth season, and the attached material notes that his slow rebuild took a significant step forward in 2025, improving from 5-7 to 9-4 with a bowl victory while climbing from 107th to 94th in SP+ and 68th overall. The Warriors are projected 84th in SP+ for 2026 with 7.3 average wins, giving them a solid statistical foundation entering the season. Hawaii also brings back quarterback Micah Alejado, who developed into a productive starter last season, along with running back Pofele Ashlock, giving Chang proven pieces in his offense. The offensive line returns three big, experienced seniors, another important advantage in an opener where continuity up front can determine whether an offense stays on schedule. The Warriors also return productive defensive pieces, including linebacker Jamih Otis, who is one of the Mountain West's better tacklers. Stanford, meanwhile, is essentially beginning another rebuild under new head coach Tavita Pritchard, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new starting quarterback in Michigan transfer Davis Warren. That amount of change creates legitimate execution concerns in Week 0, particularly against an experienced Hawaii team that already knows exactly what it wants to do schematically.

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, college football teams with new defensive coordinators are 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the season versus opponents with returning defensive coordinators. Moreover, Power 4 home favorites of -30 or fewer are 17-29 ATS (37%) versus Group of 5 teams in Weeks 0 and 1 over the last three seasons. Hawaii also has a psychological edge after beating Stanford 23-20 last season, despite giving the Cardinal 10 early points and allowing Stanford to control possession for more than 36 minutes. Chang specifically emphasized avoiding another slow start, and the Warriors have even practiced on grass to prepare for Stanford's playing surface, showing attention to detail on this road assignment. With greater coaching continuity, an established quarterback, an experienced offensive foundation, and a Stanford program adjusting to wholesale changes, take the points with Hawaii as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 29.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Lincoln Riley and the Trojans still have a lot to learn about traveling in the Big Ten (1-5 ATS away from home last year), but it appears that USC did make one notable adjustment in 2025 while playing in its new environment. Recognizing that the college football season has transformed from a 12-game sprint to a potential 16-game marathon if you make a deep playoff run, several of the country's top teams have turned the tempo down a notch. Ohio State and Notre Dame were at the forefront of the "slow it down" movement, and Riley joined them last season. The Trojans' offense went from averaging 70.2 plays per game in 2024 to 66.0 plays per game last year. In 2024, USC averaged 25.9 seconds in between plays. Last year, the Trojans took an average of 27.3 seconds between plays. USC is expected to bring back 15 starters from last year's squad including QB Jayden Maiava, but some analysts are glossing over the handful of losses a little too quickly in our opinion. Makai Lemon caught 79 passes for 1,156 yards with 13 touchdowns last season and was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Eagles. If you've been following NFL training camps and preseason games, you already know that Ja'Kobi Lane (49 catches with four touchdowns at USC last year) has been turning plenty of heads with the Ravens over the last month. Maiava is a very talented quarterback and appears to be a great fit in Riley's system, but the Trojans still need to replace a pair of bonafide NFL receivers. On the San Jose State side, Ken Niumatalolo has his work cut out for him. The Spartans are only expected to return 24-percent of their production from last year, including just two projected starters. Former QB Walker Eget has left for Duke and Hawaiian transfer Luke Weaver will get the nod for the opener against the Trojans. USC opened last season with a pair of gaudy wins over Missouri State and Georgia Southern, but in the end, what did that get the Trojans? They went 3-8 against the spread after those two wins. Riley recognizes that he has a playoff-caliber roster, but in order to survive the grind of the Big Ten schedule, he probably needs to apply some brakes in these early-season contests. San Jose State held Texas to 38 points in Week 2 last season as a 36.5-point underdog. Many of the players that were involved in that game are no longer with the Spartans' program, but Niumatalolo and his coaching staff showed that they can make life a little difficult for a superior program. The Longhorns only had 18 first downs in that contest and time of possession was almost dead-even. San Jose State turned the ball over four times in that contest. If Weaver can protect the ball and not gift the Trojans some easy points, we believe this final score will stay under the lofty total.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

This is a free play on GT.

These teams played at Colorado last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago