Bundesliga Best Predictions - Best German Bundesliga Betting Tips for January 11

Gladbach vs Bayern Munich
Bundesliga, Saturday, 12:30pm ET

Play: Gladbach +1.5
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Gladbach have been a thorn in Bayern Munich's side in recent years, losing just 2 of L/7 H2H matches regardless of venue (W3 D2 L2), and always doing well when hosting them. In fact, Gladbach have won 4 of L/6 home matches against Bayern Munich (W4 D1 L1), and have lost just 3 of L/11 home matches against Bayern Munich (W6 D2 L3). 

2 of those 3 losses coming by exactly 1 goal, and today Gladbach are +728 underdogs, the Draw is at +470 and Bayern Munich are -289 favourites, with the Asian Spread set at 1.5, a spread that Gladbach have covered in 9 of L/10 home matches against Bayern Munich. 

I completely disagree with these odds, especially since Bayern Munich are missing several key players (Upamecano, Musiala, Palhinha), and the only game that Upamecano missed was the 2-1 loss at Mainz, and Musiala's illness will surely cut something out of Bayern's creativity and threat (Muller will sub in for him). 

I wouldn't bet that -289 on Bayern Munich even if they had Musiala and Upamecano, this match-up has traditionally been one of the trickiest for Bayern Munich, as Gladbach is the team that has caused the most upsets in recent years. 

Gladbach have stood well at home this season (W5 D1 L2), forcing a 1-1 draw against Dortmund, losing by just 1 goal to Leverkusen, and the only home match where they lost by 2 or more was a 1-3 to Stuttgart (where they actually had more shots, more xG and were better in almost all statistical categories). BIG chance of an upset here, and there are several ways to bet on this match. We split 3% in three bets for a “ladders” tactic:

2% Gladbach +1.5 (-105)
0.5% Gladbach Double Chance (+245)
0.5% Gladbach Draw no Bet (+583)

Worst case scenario, Gladbach lose by 2 goals or more and we lose 3%. Acceptable, and we can still make that 3% back from the other two plays on Saturday. 

If Gladbach lose by exactly 1 goal, we win the 2%, lose the other two bets and still make +1%. Decent. 

If it's a Draw, we win the 2% on Gladbach +1.5 and the 0.5% on Gladbach Double Chance for +3.2%. Pretty good. 

If Gladbach win, we win all 3 bets for +6%. 

Take 2% on Gladbach +1.5 (-105), line good to -115
 

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago