Shriners Children’s Open Prediction and Betting Odds | Oct 6-9
Shriners Children’s Open Betting Preview & Prediction
The PGA Tour heads to Sin City for this weekend’s Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin in suburban Las Vegas. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board and dives into some head-to-head matchups for this week’s event.
| 2022 Shriners Children’s Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | October 6-9, 2022 |
| Where: | TPC Summerlin outside of Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Defending Champ: | Sungjae Im |
| Current Favorite(s): | Patrick Cantlay +600 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
Sanderson Farms Championship Recap
In what seems like a rarity this year on the PGA Tour, a true longshot won last week as Mackenzie Hughes lifted the trophy while being listed as high as 125-1. The last winner with odds of at least 100-1 was KH Lee back in May at the Byron Nelson Classic.
With that miss, the trend of top-10 Strokes Gained winners on the PGA Tour drops to 23 of 36 tournaments (63%) in 2022. Now’s the time to hop back on the bandwagon though, as the last time two tournaments were won by winners outside the Top-10, was KH Lee once again following Max Homa back in May, before Homa became a regular inside the Top-10. Let’s take a look at this week’s Top-10…
Shriners Children’s Open Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#4] Patrick Cantlay +2.21 (+750) FD
[#19] Sungjae Im +1.91 (+1400) FD | MGM
[#36] Aaron Wise +1.72 (+3100) FD
[#17] Max Homa +1.70 (+2000) MGM
[#77] Taylor Montgomery +1.38 (+3500) DK
[#55] JT Poston +1.22 (+6500) DK
[#49] Mito Pereira +1.17 (+6600) B365 | MGM
[#38] Brian Harman +1.16 (+4500) B365
[#99] Taylor Pendrith +1.15 (+5000) B365 | DK | MGM
[#76] Matt Kuchar +1.13 (+7500) B365 | DK
Notables
[#66] Cameron Davis +1.09 (+4500) B365
[#21] Joohyung “Tom” Kim +1.07 (+2200) Everywhere
The Shriners Children’s Open Course & Field
TPC Summerlin doesn’t offer much of a defense to low scores with the winner likely to be at least 20-under par this week as last year’s field averaged 2-under per round. The par-71 is only 7,255 yards featuring easy-to-hit fairways (70% last year) and greens (75%), with rough topping out at barely 2.5 inches. The course was completely re-grassed since last year’s edition, but greens are expected to be slow by Tour standards at just around 11 on the Stimpmeter.
TPC Summerlin has been featured as a regular Tour stop for over 40 yards and was the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour victory. This year’s field is the strongest of the young PGA Tour season featuring several President’s Cup players. Cantlay headlines the field and like Tiger, TPC Summerlin just happens to be where he won his first Tour event. Sungaje Im, the defending champ, is the next favorite with three co-runner-up finishes to end last season.
It looks like fantastic weather is on the forecast all four days with temperatures in the low-90s and no rain in sight. Wind will also not be a factor with 10mph likely the stiffest breeze the field will see this week. That should only enhance the likelihood of a lower-scoring tournament than we saw last year.
Nick’s Shriners Children’s Open Betting Favorites
A shorter track with elevation also in play means plenty of shorter clubs into greens this week. Wedge play, and of course, finding the hot putter, will likely spell winner this week.
Outright Winner: Taylor Montgomery +3500 (DraftKings)
I put his name right here last week and I don’t see a reason to remove it this week. Montgomery is the only player to finish top-10 in both Tour events this season. The rookie now has finished inside the top-10 in six-straight events dating back to last year on the KFT.
I’ll include what I said last week as well: “Although Montgomery didn’t register a win last season, he still finished seventh on the money list while only playing in 17 events compared to 21-24 events for every other player in the top-10. He did that by finishing inside the top-10 in seven of this final eight starts of the season, ranking No. 1 in scoring average, No. 1 in birdie average, No. 2 in Total Strokes Gained and No. 3 in Putting.”
Montgomery will win this season. I just hope to time it right when he does.
Top-20: Cam Davis +200 (Bet365)
Davis missed the cut in his lone start this season at the Fortinet, but he was certainly distracted by his President’s Cup debut where he played well for the Internationals going 2-3.
Cam finished last season on a heater though with five Top-16 finishes over his last six starts. He also hits it far ranking #35 in Driving Distance last year which helps him make a lot of birdies at #34 in Birdie Average. That recipe should play very nicely this week in Vegas.
Shriners Children’s Open Best Bet
Taylor Pendrith (-120) over Tom Hoge: I’m a big fan of consistency when betting head-to-head matchups and Pendrith has been exactly that as he hasn’t missed a cut since February. Okay, so he missed four months due to a fractured rib, but since his return in July, he has made the weekend in all seven tournaments with only two finishes outside the top-13. Pendrith ranked No. 10 in driving distance, No. 10 in greens in regulation and No. 26 in birdie average last season.
Hoge flashed some brilliance at the Fortinet a couple of weeks ago finishing T12 which followed a T10 in the Tour Championship thanks to some hot play early in 2022. But during the summer, Hoge went on a run of seven missed cuts in eight tournaments before being guaranteed four rounds at the BMW (finished T48) and the Tour Championship. Hoge ranked outside the top-100 in driving distance, greens in regulation and putting last year and I’m not buying that he has figured it all out.
See you next week for the ZOZO Championship!
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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