Alabama vs Georgia Picks and Odds | SEC Championship Game

Alabama vs Georgia Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Alabama vs Georgia betting preview for the SEC Championship on Saturday, December 4 at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. At the time of posting, the Bulldogs are holding steady as a 6.5-point favorite over the Crimson Tide, with the total sitting at 49.5 points.

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Alabama vs Georgia Predictions

• Georgia Bulldogs -6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide
• Total: 49.5 Points
• Alabama has not been an underdog since 2015, when they were a 1-point underdog to Georgia (and rolled 38-10).
• This point spread is the largest that Alabama has faced since the 2008 SEC title game vs. Tim Tebow and the Gators.
• Alabama has won the last seven SEC Championship Games that it has appeared in.
• Georgia has covered the spread in all six of their games away from home this season.

There may not be a more exciting game, or a more anticipated match-up in this entire college football season. When Georgia played as good as they were, even early in the year, it became apparent that we were in for a huge SEC Championship game this season. This is just the 5th time since 2015 that these two teams have faced off, and the significance of October 3rd, 2015?? That was the last time the Alabama Crimson Tide was an underdog, 2,254 days ago.

Amazing to think about that Alabama has had 4 QB’s that never played a game as an underdog since that game, Blake Barnett, Jalen Hurts, Tua and Mac Jones NEVER played a game in an Alabama jersey as a dog!! In the L3 meetings between these two teams on a neutral field have all gone to Georgia against the spread, but even more amazingly, the Crimson Tide has lost 3 games ATS in the L4 (failing to cover by an average of almost 10 points per in those 4 games!).

The biggest story coming into this game is definitely the Georgia defense. We know that both these teams have a powerhouse offense, Georgia is #6 in PPG (40.7), #3 in YPP (7.06), on top of being #5 in yards per pass attempt (9.50 yards!). While Alabama ranks #5 in PPG (42.7), #7 in YPG (492.2), on top of being #7 in passing YPG and yards per pass attempt (341.8 & 9.30). Yet if this Bulldog’s defense is as good in this game as it has been all year, Georgia shouldn’t be too worried about the rankings and stats.

Georgia is allowing an unbelievable 6.9 PPG (#1 in the nation by a long shot), allowing just 230 yards per game (#1), alongside being #1 in yards/pass attempt allowed, giving up just 4.9 yards per attempt. Although the most amazing defensive stat is the fact that they are allowing just 3.67 yards per play this season! They are the only team in the country that is allowing under 4 yards per play, w/ Wisconsin coming in at 4.10 yards at No. 2. Alabama is #8 in  yards per play allowed, and they are almost a full yard behind Georgia!

This Georgia defense is obviously the best in the FBS this yeae, they only allowed double-digit points 4 times this season (out of 12 games), while Alabama only held the opposition to single digits 2 times all season. The Bulldogs defense also helped the team win the yardage battle in every game except 1, and that was the game against Florida, who only out-gained Georgia BY 1 YARD! On top of the fact that this defense has had at least 2 sacks in every game except the game against Vanderbilt, and they have greater than 2 sacks in 9 out of 12 games!

When you look at a H2H comparison, both teams have faced off against 4 common foes, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida and Tennessee, and while both teams went 4-0 SU, there are some massive differences. Georgia went 4-0 ATS in those 4 games, they were favorited by 16.125 points on average but they covered by an astounding 11.9 points on average. The Bulldogs posted 36.5 PPG on average, while allowing an amazing 8.5 points per game! They out-gained their opponents by 99 yards on average and won the TO battle by a margin of 6-3.

Alabama on the other hand only covered 1 of those 4 games (vs. Tennessee in week 8), while they were favorited by an average of 20.125 points (a little bigger margin then Georgia), they failed to cover by an average of 3.625 points! Alabama may have put up more points and yards on average then Georgia did in those 4 games, but the defense against becomes the difference. The Crimson Tide put up 37.25 PPG, while allowing 27.5 (19 more points then Georgia), they also average 489.25 yards against the 353.25 yards they allowed on average. Alabama gave up more points to Arkansas then Georgia did to all 4 teams combined!

What can Oregon do differently to reverse the drubbing they received from Utah two weeks ago? Join Joe, Dave, Adam and Bryan for College Football Daily as we preview this weekend’s NCAAF conference championship games. https://t.co/wRkrItY6DY

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 30, 2021

Alabama vs Georgia Analysis from The GoldSheet

Fundamentally, there seems to be a valid case for the Bulldogs, whose raucous defense has looked like a college version of the old Pittsburgh Steel Curtain from the 70s, top-ranked in the nation while allowing less than seven points per game and wrecking opposing offenses almost every week with a tidal wave-like push up from led by NT Jordan Davis and friends. On the surface, that looks like real trouble for Nick Saban, whose OL has been a recurring issue throughout this campaign and has not dominated like past Bama forward walls.

We caution, however, reading too much into the supposed optics, as the Tide also has a lot more offense than any attack Kirby Smart’s defense has seen all season, and a somewhat-similar stop unit a year ago couldn’t slow a generational Tide offense led by QB Mac Jones, which scored 41 points in a handy Tide win at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It might be a mistake to short-change the Georgia offense, too, which has responded to rough-hewn QB Stetson Bennett, whose ability to improvise has kept alive many Bulldog drives.

But the much-sharper edge belongs to Bama and Heisman hopeful QB Bryce Jones, who was able to pull last week’s valiant upset attempt by Auburn out of the fire on the road, and has fired 40 TD passes to the usual collection of Tide big-play targets, who just might be able to exploit the one possible shortcoming in this miserly Dawg stop unit (vulnerability to the deep pass).

Admittedly, Alabama is getting dangerously thin at RB if top ground-gainer Brian Robinson can’t bounce back from a lower-body injury suffered last week (only two scholarship RBs, Robinson & Trey Sanders, were on the active roster at Auburn last week). We suspect we haven’t heard the past from Bama yet this season…and maybe see a rematch between these two five weeks hence.

NCAAF Conference Championship Previews

Can Georgia slam the door on Alabama’s playoff dreams, or can the Crimson Tide ensure that the SEC gets two representatives in the final four? Join Drew Martin, Rob Veno and Ralph Michaels for The Best Damn College Football Show every Wednesday at 3:15pm ET / 12:15pm PT. On this week’s episdoe, we preview the Conference USA title game between UTSA and Western Kentucky; Alabama vs Georgia in the SEC Championship Game; and Cincinnati vs Houston for the AAC title.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this Alabama vs Georgia showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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