England vs Wales Prediction and Betting Odds | World Cup Group B

England vs Wales Betting Preview

Most of the stakes have been removed from Tuesday’s England vs Wales match in Group B, but don’t tell that to either fanbase. Energy and enthusiasm will still be high between these border rivals. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman shares his thoughts on the Match Day 3 clash.

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England vs Wales Betting Odds

Tuesday, November 29	World Cup Group B Betting Notes
England:	-210
Wales:	+650
Draw:	+330
Total:	2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT

England vs Wales Betting Analysis

Wales’ only chance of advancing to the knockout round is to erase the goal differential hole that they dug themselves into by losing 2-0 to Iran. Wales doesn’t just need to win this match as a +650 underdog, they need to win it with margin, as well. 

That is definitely not something that Gareth Bale and Co. are used to doing. Across Wales’ last ten matches, they’ve only scored 2+ goals on one occasion.

Lions Licking Their Chops

England was out-played by the United States on Friday, and the Three Lions were fortunate to walk away from that match with a draw. Everything that worked against Iran in Match Day 1 failed to work against the United States. So which version of England will we see on Tuesday afternoon?

The group dynamics and the pressure on Wales to move forward should play right into England’s hands. England will gladly let Wales have the ball and control the pace of play before capitalizing on a mistake and running a counterattack. 

Wales just competed in the UEFA Nations League against Poland, Belgium and Netherlands. Wales had the minority share of the possession in all five of those matches, including 32-percent in their last match against Belgium at the end of September. Wales is not used to having the ball and controlling the match. England will gladly hand it to them and capitalize on mistakes.

England vs Wales Prediction

I first looked at the Asian handicap for England but I wasn’t a huge fan of the -1.25 number (you have to pay over -150 to buy down to -1.0 which is where I would be interested in taking it). If the Lions play the same way they did on Friday against the US, I’m not convinced they can win this match by more than one goal.

Then, I looked at England’s team total over 1.5 goals, but that number was even higher at -180 at most sports books. Again, that wasn’t a price that I was willing to lay on a team that has some Jekyll and Hyde characteristics.

Ultimately, I believe the best bet in this match is over 2.5 goals, which is widely available at -105. Wales probably can’t erase the -4 goal differential that they need to in this match, but they are certainly capable of scoring at least one. Wales has scored in 13 of its last 15 matches, and that includes games against Belgium (three times), Netherlands (twice), Poland, Austria, Ukraine and the US. 

If this game does come to a grind in the second half, England has a wealth of fresh legs available on the bench, all of whom would love a chance at a World Cup goal. This should be an entertaining affair between United Kingdom neighbors.

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Stoppage Time | 2022 World Cup Betting Preview

Belgium enters Match Day 3 sitting in third place in Group F behind Croatia and Morocco. Can the Red Devils avoid early elimination and advance to the knockout round? Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we preview the marquee midweek matchups from a variety of handicapping angles.

2022 World Cup Group Predictions

• Group A
• Group B
• Group C
• Group D
• Group E
• Group F
• Group G
• Group H

About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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