Army vs Navy Picks, Predictions and Betting Odds Dec 11

Army vs Navy Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Army vs Navy betting preview for Saturday, December 11 at MetLife Stadium in The Meadowlands. At the time of posting, the Black Knights are holding steady as a 7-point favorite over the Midshipmen, with the total down to 35 points.

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Army vs Navy Predictions

• Army Black Knights -7 vs Navy Midshipmen
• Total: 35 Points
• The last 15 games meetings in this series have gone under the total.

This Army/Navy game has been a similar story year in and year out, that is at least up until the last five seasons. We have seen 15-straight games go under the total, we have seen Navy win every game from 2002-2015 but in the last five meetings, Army is 4-1.

This year we get an Army team that is coming into this game with an 8-3 record, on top of being one of the most balanced teams in the FBS. The Golden Knights are in the top 20 in scoring, on top of having a top 20 defense, while also leading the country in time of possession. The extensive time of possession may stem from the fact that Army is converting on 49% of 3rd down attempts & capitalizing on 71% of 4th down attempts.

Army is coming into this game on a 4 game winning streak, while they look to continue that streak, they will also look to continue a streak of 7-2-1 ATS in the L10 games H2H w/ Navy. This year the teams are facing off at MetLife Stadium for the fifth time in their history, Army is 13-4 straight-up as a favorite, but Navy has won 3 out of the 4 previous games in East Rutherford.

This year, Army has shocked the ranking in the FBS, while these armed forces teams continue to pound the triple option, and usually sit atop the rushing yard rankings, the Golden Knights have posted 4.95 YPC (#32 in the FBS) but the defense has been remarkable. Army is #39 in points allowed per game (22.8), which stems from the fact that they are allowing just 324 yards to the opposition (#18 in the FBS).

The defense has also learned a lot from going against this rush attack so frequently in practice, not only are they one of the best teams rushing the ball offensively, the defense is #11 allowing just 104 rushing YPG (on just 3.65 YPC). Navy is still in the top half defensively against the rush, but overall they are allowing 6.12 YPP (#107 in the FBS), and 4.1 YPC to the opposition.

Even though we all know this game is going to be decided on the ground, Army may want to think about that for just a second, they are #1 in the country in yards per pass attempt (12.1) even w/ their limited attempts, while Navy ranks #130 (last in the FBS) in passing yards per game allowed.

Stats aside, Navy actually has the upper hand this season against the spread. The Midshipmen are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games, after starting the season 0-2. They have really protected the ball, losing just five turnovers in those eight games, while forcing ten takeaways. They may be 0-3 in non-conference games, but Army is 5-5 ATS in their last ten. Army has finally found some life in the last four games, going 3-1 against the spread, and allowing just 14.3 points to the opposition.

The biggest similarity between these two teams may be the lack of points these two teams put up. The under is 6-2 in Army’s last eight games, with four-straight unders when the total is under 50, and keeping both games so far under with a total less then 40.

The under is 5-2 in Navy’s last seven games. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that when these two teams face off, the result is very similar. The last meetings between these two teams has resulted in the game going under the total. Although, in this historic run, this is only the second time that this game has had a total under 40 points (LY total = 37.5). The average total in those prior 15 matchups is 48.7, but as I mentioned before. This is the third time Army has seen a total under 40, and both have cashed.

Top Prediction = Under 35
Sides Opinion = Army -7

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Army vs Navy Analysis from The GoldSheet

Last season, the Black Knights won a grim defensive battle 15-0 that was sitting at 3-0 into the 4th Q, with these opposing option attacks combining for less than 300 yards. It’s the scoreline, however, that continues to intrigue in this and all Commander-in-Chief games, with the Black Knights and Midshipmen now “under” an astounding 15 straight against one another, all very familiar in Commander-in-Chief games, which including Air Force are now “under” 40-9-1 the last fifty renewals, including both earlier this season when involving Troy Calhoun’s Falcons.

The combination of ground-centric options and few incomplete passes continues to contribute to fast-moving games with few clock stoppages; only 96 total plays were run in last December’s slow-moving battle. All setting the perfect parameters for “under” results. We see no reason things will be different this week, again each ranking near the top of the nation in rush stats (Army 2nd at 301 ypg, Navy 7th at 228 ypg; you guessed it, Air Force ranks first!), so the pace will look familiar.

After losing 14 in a row to that Annapolis lot, West Point has won 4 of 5 since 2016, mostly due to stop-unit edges on Todd Monken’s side which appear in place once more as the Black Knights rank 16th nationally in total defense. But hold on before considering laying points; though not a vintage Ken Niumatalolo Navy edition, the Mids have proven a tough out with covers in seven of their last nine, as soph Tai Lavatai has emerged as a serviceable option pilot. So we might rather take the points, but make no mistake, the featured call remains “under” (don’t get spooked if the “total” drops below 35, either!).

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football bowl games, plus this weekend’s Army vs Navy showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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