Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Odds | La Liga Jan 8
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Betting Preview
Atletico Madrid under Diego Simeone has been one of Europe’s best teams over the last decade, but beating Barcelona has always been his toughest task. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman shares his thoughts on Sunday’s clash at the Camp Nou between two of Spain’s best.
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Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Betting Odds
| Sunday, January 8 | Spanish La Liga Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Barcelona: | +125 |
| Atletico Madrid: | +205 |
| Draw: | +230 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT |
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Betting Analysis
Atletico has five wins, 11 draws and 16 losses in 32 matches with Barcelona under Simeone. They did kick off the second half of the season with a nice 2-0 win over Elche to move them up to fourth in the table and into the final Champions League qualification spot.
Barcelona, on the other hand, stumbled out of the post-World Cup break with a very disappointing 1-1 home draw vs Espanyol. To make matters worse, they also lost Jordi Alba for this match against Atletico due to a red card he picked up against Espanyol. Robert Lewandowski is also serving a three-game suspension and will miss this match with Madrid.
Best in the Back
Jordi Alba missing for Barcelona will certainly hurt their defense, but I don’t think it’s enough to warrant overthinking this. Barcelona is No. 1 in the league defensively, allowing a paltry 0.71 xGA per match while also allowing just 7.3 shots with 2.4 on target, both also leading the league. In 15 league matches this season, they have kept 11 clean sheets!
Unfortunately for Atletico, this isn’t the same defensive side we have seen in years past where they always seemed to lead the league in fewest goals conceded. They have allowed 14 this season in 15 matches, which is still good, it just pales in comparison to Barcelona’s six.
Atletico is allowing 1.19 xGA which ranks seventh on 11.5 shots with 3.3 on target, ranking eighth and third, respectively. At home, all those numbers do lower slightly.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
When it comes to these teams getting together in Madrid, we generally see very tight matches with each of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals. It’s also worth noting that at home, Atletico tends to be the aggressor in terms of fouls and cards.
In the last eight meetings at home dating back to the 2016 Champions League, Atletico has been handed an average of 3.875 cards per match, accumulating at least four cards in six of eight matches.
Card props aren’t yet out for this match, but when they do come out, if we can get over 3.5 cards for Atletico at a decent price, I’ll look to play that and likely parlay it with the under total.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction – The Betting Pick
My top betting selection for this game is under 2.5 goals (-110), but keep an eye out for the cards market when that becomes more widely available closer to game time. For more free soccer picks, check out WagerTalk’s free picks page.
Stoppage Time | European Soccer Preview Jan 7-8
The race for the La Liga crown should be a great one as Barcelona and Real Madrid enter Match Day 16 tied atop the table. Join Carmine, Nick, Kevin and Bryan for Stoppage Time as we preview this weekend’s European soccer action from a variety of betting angles. We cover this Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid showdown at the 24:00 timestamp.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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