Updated European Soccer Relegation Prediction, Picks and Odds

European Soccer Relegation Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Bryan Power shares his European soccer relegation prediction, picks and odds across the Premier League, La Liga, German Bundesliga and Serie A. With the multiple seasons heading into their home stretch see which club odds of being relegated are most valuable!

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European Soccer Relegation Betting Preview

After an International Break, domestic action is set to resume in all of Europe’s big soccer leagues this weekend.

As many of you know, I joined the esteemed Stoppage Time panel at WagerTalk TV a few months ago. Our focus is typically on the big matches and top clubs throughout Europe each week.

The clubs at the bottom of the table deserve a shout as well. So what I am going to focus on here are the relegation battles in the English Premier League, Bundesliga (Germany), La Liga (Spain) and Serie A (Italy).

In all four of these leagues, the relegation battle is tight and it seems (to me) that there are more clubs in danger of dropping than a typical year. So let’s go league by league and I’ll offer a best bet on these relegation battles.

As a reminder, with the exception of the Bundesliga, it’s the bottom three in each league that get relegated.

Premier League Relegation Prediction

DraftKings currently lists nine clubs with +450 or better odds of being relegated.

This makes sense as there’s now an 11-point gap separating the top 11 from the bottom nine. Incredibly, the bottom nine are separated by just four points. So this is the most wide open race of the four.

Southampton (-300) are overwhelming favorites to drop down. Given that the Saints have a better expected goal differential than 9th place Fulham, I think those odds are crazy.

Southampton may currently be last in the table, but they’d be out of the drop zone entirely with a win over West Ham this weekend. They do have to face both Manchester City and Arsenal in April, however.

Bournemouth (-160) and Nottingham Forest (-110) are the two other clubs with a minus next to their odds. Bournemouth has the worst GD and fewest xPts (expected points) in the league and Nottingham is second worst in both categories.

I do expect both of these clubs to be sent back down to the Championship after just a one-year stay in the English top flight.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that West Ham (+400), Leicester City (+400) and Leeds United (+300) all avoid the relegation fate. I say that based on the underlying metrics, which say this trio has underperformed to this point and are due for better results.

Leeds has gotten the “new manager bounce,” winning two of four under Javi Gracia. The one issue for West Ham is also navigating the Europa Conference League.

That leaves us with Everton (+175), Wolves (+330) and Crystal Palace (+450). That price on Palace looks juicy considering they are one of just two sides across England’s top four tiers that have yet to win a league match in 2023 (and have yet to score more than one goal!).

The Eagles’ next six fixtures are all against bottom nine sides. So they have a chance to save themselves.

Everton still has five matches remaining at Goodison Park – the home faithful certainly seemed to play a role in last year’s survival bid. Wolves desperately need points this weekend at Nottingham Forest, otherwise home affairs against Palace and Everton basically become “must wins.”

Prediction: Nottingham Forest to be Relegated (-110)

La Liga Relegation Prediction

Elche, 14 points clear of safety and on their fourth manager this season, is a lock for relegation. So much so that DraftKings isn’t even offering odds on it anymore. Say hello to the Segunda Division.

That leaves us with two more spots to consider in Spain. Seven sides are separated by just three points. It is shocking to see Sevilla (+800) and Valencia (+550) among them. Valencia is the most underperforming side in the league, based on xGD and xPts.

I am stunned that Cadiz (+160) has escaped the bottom three for the time being. The Yellow Submarine currently occupies 15th position. But they are second worst in the league in both xGD and xPts.

They’ve been one of the weakest sides in each of the three seasons back in the top flight and survived by just a single point in 2021/22.

Real Valladolid (+150) and Almeria (-110) are the other sides to consider here. Valladolid were joint favorites with fellow newly promoted side Girona to be relegated at the start of the season.

While Girona has clearly overperformed, Valladolid has not. and Opta has the White & Violets with the second highest probability of being relegated.

Opta also doesn’t really like Espanyol (+170) or Getafe (+300) relative to some of these other sides that I’ve discussed. But I’m not betting against either at the current prices.

Prediction: Real Valladolid to be relegated (+150)

German Bundesliga Relegation Prediction

The bottom two here are automatically relegated while whoever finishes 16th (third to last) faces the third place finisher from the 2 in a two-leg relegation playoff.

Less than a month ago, I would have had Schalke (-250) and Bochum (+170) as the locks for the two automatic relegation spots, but the former has shockingly gone unbeaten over its last eight matches with two wins and six draws (including four 0-0).

Since the halfway point of the season, Schalke has posted the league’s best defensive record with only four goals conceded 8.5 xGA. Oddsmakers still aren’t buying them though, nor am I.

Bochum has beaten Koln and RB Leipzig over its last two matches and is now 14th, four points clear of safety, but considering they are last in xGD, xPts and actual GD, I love the idea of betting them at the current price.

Despite the consecutive clean sheets, they’ve still conceded more goals (56) than any other Bundesliga side this season.

Hoffenheim (+170), Stuttgart (+100) and Hertha Berlin (-125) are the other considerations here. Believe it or not, Hoffenheim was actually fourth in the league following matchday 10. Since then, they have just one win and collected five points (both league worsts).

Stuttgart, currently last for the first time all season, have been incredibly unlucky. They are sixth in the league in xGA, but have conceded 10 more goals than expected. Their luck has to turn, no?

Hertha is the only side in the bottom five to have stuck with the same manager all season, but the clock is ticking on Sandro Schwarz as his team has the worst defensive record in the league (28 goals allowed) since the World Cup break.

Last year, they had to win the relegation playoff against Hamburg to stay in the top flight. It may be a similar fate at the end of this season.

Prediction: Bochum to be relegated (+170)

Serie A Relegation Prediction

OK, so there’s a lot less drama over in Italy where Sampdoria and Cremonese are virtual locks to be relegated.

Those two sides currently face 11 and 9 point gaps to safety. Considering Cremonese has just one win all season, it’s all over but the shouting for them. Samp has the worst goal differential (-28) in the league.

So can Hellas Verona (-200 to be relegated) survive? They have to make up a five-point gap on Spezia. Verona actually has a much better xGD than the other teams in the bottom five of the table. So they’ve been unlucky to this point. The remaining set of fixtures, save for a trip to Cremonese, are not all that favorable though.

But I think betting against Spezia (+250) is the better option. Spezia has the fewest number of xPts (per Understat) in Serie A. Taking a flier on Salernitana (+550) is really tempting as they have the worst xGD in the league.

Prediction: Spezia to be relegated (+250)

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About The Author

Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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Meet the Author

After spending the previous decade at Covers Experts, Bryan Power has wasted little time establishing himself here at WagerTalk. A consistent winner since first emerging on the scene back in 2011, Power didn’t have a single losing calendar year in his first decade as a pro handicapper! In April & May of this year (2022), he went on an amazing 154-99-2 (+$41,322) with all plays! October is when he truly made his mark at WT, at one point cashing 22 of 26 plays (85%).

Power handicaps football (both NFL & College), basketball (NBA & College), MLB, Soccer (most major European leagues) and the UFC. He uses a personal set of power ratings, combined with situational handicapping to make his selections. Multiple bets per day, across multiple sports, are the norm. Client plays are rated 3%-5%.

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