Atalanta vs Bologna Expert Prediction and Picks | Serie A Betting April 8
Atalanta vs Bologna Betting Preview
Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his prediction and picks for this Atalanta vs Bologna Serie A match before start time at 10:30am ET Saturday, coming from Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, Italy. Both Atalanta and Bologna both sit top 10 of the Serie A standings heading in.
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Atalanta vs Bologna Betting Odds
| Saturday, April 8 | Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Bologna: | +450 |
| Atalanta: | -155 |
| Draw: | +290 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 10:30am ET / 7:30am PT |
Atalanta vs Bologna Betting Analysis
If history tells us anything, it simply says bet on Atalanta in this series as they have won 11 of the last 14 meetings dating back to 2016 with two draws and just one win from Bologna.
That trend is just as strong at the Bergamo as well. Although Bologna was able to play out a 0-0 draw last year, Atalanta had won seven straight at home over Bologna prior to that. It’s easy to look at the table this season and see only eight points separate these teams.
Atalanta, especially, has been struggling with their home results as they have just four wins this season which is remarkably low for a Top-6 team. But diving deeper into it, their underlying metrics are there, they are just simply underperforming.
Atalanta Advanced Data
If we look at xG (expected goals) numbers, Atalanta rank in the Top-6 of the league averaging a +0.60 xG differential per 90 minutes and the rest of the league falls off significantly from there.
Over recent years it’s always been their offense that gets the attention, but their defense has been very good as well.
The last three seasons their defense ranked 3rd, 2nd, 8th and now 5th this season allowing just 1.11 xGA per match.
Bologna Sports Poor xG Differential
When looking at the opposite end, the bottom five in xG differential are drastically worse than the rest of the league and while Bologna doesn’t fall into that category, they are the next worst team on the list ranking 15th with a -0.35 xG differential per 90 minutes.
Their main issue has been their offense, generating just 1.13 xG per match which they also struggled with last season averaging 1.20.
They ended last year on 46 points with a -11 goal differential but this season they are already on 40 points with an even goal differential. They have been overperforming their metrics earning nearly 7 more points than expected.
Atalanta vs Bologna Expert Prediction
Going even further, Atalanta average a +1.04 xG differential per match at home while Bologna average a -1.02 xG differential away.
I don’t want to pay the current price of -160 or higher on Atalanta because they haven’t been getting results, but I do think they will be the better team in this match.
So, I’ll pair them to win with Under 4.5 goals to basically buy down the price as the chances of going over that total seem very low. Only a combined five of 56 matches between these teams have finished Over 4.5 goals.
Prediction: Atalanta + Under 4.5 Goals -125
Soccer Betting Tips
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.
Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.
Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.
Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.
Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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