Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series Betting Analysis
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his expert Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns series betting preview providing predictions and betting odds before Game 1 tip off April 29. The Nuggets and Suns split their regular season head-to-head matchups 2-2 heading into their Western Conference semi-final showdown.
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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series Betting Odds
| Series Betting | NBA Betting Notes, Courtesy of DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Moneyline to Win Series: | Denver Nuggets +120 vs Phoenix Suns -140 |
| Series Spread: | Nuggets +1.5 (-150) / Suns -1.5 (+125) |
| Series Total Games: | 4 Games (+550), 5 Games (+310), 6 Games (+185), 7 Games (+195) |
| Series Correct Score | Suns 4-2 (+295), Nuggets 4-3 (+380), Suns 4-3 (+500) |
| Featured Prop Bet: | Buzzer Beater in series (FG as time expires to give team win) +2500 |
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series Betting Analysis
After taking care of business in the opening round, the top-seeded Denver Nuggets are set to face the #4 seeded Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semifinals.
The Nuggets punched their ticket to the 2nd round on Tuesday, outlasting the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-109 in Game 5 behind 28 point triple-double by Nikola Jokic and a game high 35 points from Jamal Murray.
The Suns ousted the injury-riddled Los Angeles Clippers in Game 5 of their series just hours later. Devin Booker tied a playoff career high with 47 points including 25 points in the 3rd quarter of a 136-130 victory.
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Regular Season Results
-December 25th: Nuggets 128, Suns 125 (OT)
-January 11th: Nuggets 126, Suns 97
-March 31st: Suns 100, Nuggets 93
-April 6th: Suns 119, Nuggets 115
These teams split their regular season series 2-2 with the home team prevailing in all four contests. When these teams originally met on Christmas Day, Booker attempted to play with a groin strain but left the game after only 4 minutes of action.
Booker would miss the next 21 games including the January loss in Denver. Booker and Kevin Durant were both in the lineup when the Suns took care of business at home in March.
However, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr all missed the game for the Nuggets. Denver was again without its trio of key players during a meaningless Phoenix victory in April.
Point being, these Western Conference superpowers haven’t locked horns at full strength yet this season, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the series.
Battle of the Bigs
Nikola Jokic and De’Andre Ayton are both 7-7 in their head-to-head matchups, however Ayton has a 4-0 post-season edge.
The last time they met in the playoffs, Phoenix swept Denver in the 2021 Western Conference Semifinals. Jokic was ejected in Game 4 after committing a Flagrant 2 foul in the second half.
The Joker did dominate Ayton throughout the series, outscoring him 100-57 and winning the rebounding battle 53-42.
Shooters Shoot
During the four meetings in the regular season, the Suns actually made 11 more three’s than the Nuggets but four of Denvers starters missed two of those games.
Phoenix took only 27.3% of their shots from three-point land in the first-round. It was the lowest rate seen by any team in any series in the last four post-seasons.
This was partially due to the Suns having three of the best mid-range shooters in the game in Booker, Durant and Paul.
The Nuggets aren’t a high volume three-point shooting team as they took only 36.9% of their shots from beyond the arc (4th lowest rate in the first round).
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Bench Play
After the first round, the Nuggets bench has the 2nd best net rating at 4.3 while the Suns ranked 9th at -1.1 in that category.
Despite losing the series, the Clippers bench ran circles around the Phoenix reserves in pretty much every game.
The Suns bench issues are the reason Devin Booker and Kevin Durant rank #1 & #2 respectively in post-season minutes. Head coach Monty Williams makes sure to leave at least two of the starters on the floor which could lead to fatigue down the stretch.
Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series Prediction
The winner of this series seems very likely to end up in the NBA Finals as both teams are stacked and the other two series have turned into dogfights.
Both sides have plenty of post-season experience and plenty of offensive firepower. However Denver has the better bench and better overall cohesiveness as head coach Mike Malone is the leagues fourth-longest tenured coach.
The Nuggets also have homecourt advantage which is huge as they are absolutely dominant in the Denver altitude. This series sets up to go at least 6 or 7 games but give me the top team in the Western Conference at plus money.
Expert Prediction: Denver Nuggets Win Series +120 Draftkings
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NBA Tip-Off Show | April 28
Join a rotating panel of WagerTalk handicappers for the NBA Tip-Off Show as we preview tonight’s NBA Playoff card from a betting perspective. We’ll go well beyond the Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Series.
Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, stats, analysis, and predictions with our panel of pro sports bettors as they offer some of their favorite NBA best bets, player props and DFS recommendations on tonight’s slate.
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Meet the Author
Andy Lang has lived in Indianapolis his whole life, and like most people from the Hoosier State, he became fascinated with motor sports. That interest in motor sports turned into a desire to make money off the sport through fantasy contests and sports betting. Like most, he took his lumps when he first got started, but now he is one of the most respected NASCAR bettors in the industry. Andy has expanded that sports betting experience to become profitable in a number of other sports, transforming this interest from a side hobby to a major source of income.
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