Serie A Match Predictions, Picks and Odds for 5/3/23

Serie A Match Betting Preview for May 3

Sportsmemo Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 3 Serie A match predictions including Monza vs Roma and Verona vs Inter. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Monza vs Roma | Wednesday 5/3 | 9:00am ET

Monza +235 | Draw +215 | Roma +115
Asian Handicap: Roma -0.25 | Total: 2.0

Low total means a tight match is expected and in that situation, I always love to grab the head start, especially on the home side.

Monza leads Serie A in points since March 4 with 15 as they have just one loss over their last eight matches. They have had a rather easy schedule during that run but did beat Inter 1-0. Other good results this year include two wins over Juventus and an additional draw vs Inter last fall.

Roma won the reverse fixture 3-0 way back in August but that was at home where they have been much more dominant.

On the road they were good to begin the year but have really fallen off with just one win over their last six away and two wins from their last nine.

They have had some tough games with losses to Atalanta, Lazio and Napoli along with a draw at AC Milan, but they have also failed to beat Cremonese, Lecce and Sassuolo during their current run.

Roma leads the league with a ridiculously low 0.79 xGA this season but have been conceding goals on the road including seven of their last nine. On the season, they have kept just four clean sheets away in 16 matches.

If Monza get on the board in this match, I think it will be enough to cash this ticket in what oddsmakers expect to be a low-scoring game.

Monza have scored in seven of their last eight overall and at home have been held off the sheet just three times in 16 matches this season. They are also playing with the most confidence they have all season.

Prediction: Monza +0.25 -115

Sampdoria vs Torino | Wednesday 5/3 | 12:00pm ET

Sampdoria +310 | Draw +235 | Torino -115
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Ten points back of a moving target is where last place Sampdoria sit right now with six matches remaining. While I suppose they haven’t mathematically been relegated yet, it would take more than a miracle to save them.

If they are to have any chance it’s 100% do or die now and Torino is a side I’m sure they believe they have a chance against as the visitors are not a high-octane offense.

I previewed their weekend match vs Atalanta and suggested taking the Under and while the match finished Over the total, I do believe it was the right play as there were three goals scored on a combined 1.39 xG.

Torino have gone 20-12 to the Under this season thanks to their defense that is allowing just 1.13 xGA which ranks 6th in the league and an offense that hasn’t scored more than two goals in any match.

One goal could be more than enough against bottom of the table Sampdoria who have scored the fewest goals in the league, just 20 thru 32 matches, and who rank dead last in xG per 90 minutes, averaging just 0.93.

Sampdoria’s defense is where the risk lies in taking this Under as they have now conceded 57 goals including five on Sunday to Fiorentina. Only Cremonese have conceded more at 58.

However, as I already alluded to, Torino is not the type of team to run up three or four goals themselves.
I think we see Sampdoria lay everything on the field one last time and focus their efforts defensively while Torino continue to do what they have all season.

Prediction Under 2.25 Goals -110

Verona vs Inter | Wednesday 5/3 | 3:00pm ET

Verona +380 | Draw +275 | Inter -150
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Inter played a great 2nd half over the weekend to grab the win over Lazio 3-1 and move themselves into the Top-4 ahead of both AC Milan and Roma on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Serie A is going to have the most exciting Top-4 race to finish the season and every point is going to be critical along the way. Travelling to Verona is not going to be easy, however.

Verona is battling against relegation and their four-match unbeaten run has them now tied on points with Spezia, but Spezia hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. Verona have been improved defensively allowing a total of just three goals over those four matches on an average of only 1.03 xGA per 90 minutes.

In fact, they have been very good defensively since the WC break. They have allowed more than one goal just twice in 17 matches, have kept five clean sheets, and have averaged just 1.15 xGA per match.

Compare that to before the WC where they allowed at least two goals ten times in 15 matches, didn’t keep a single clean sheet, and allowed an average of 1.52 xGA.

Inter are in a tough spot here. They obviously need to continue to win, but they travel to Roma on the weekend in a huge match, then of course will play Leg 1 of the Champions League semifinal next week.

While I don’t expect them to rest a ton of guys, I think we may see a little shakeup to the lineup, but more likely, if they have a 2nd half lead, maybe 1-0 or especially 2-0, I could see them sub their starting XI off to try to play the game out to conserve some minutes.

Verona played Inter very tough in the reverse fixture which Inter won 1-0, but only on a combined 0.79 xG for the match. I see this playing out very similarly in what is a very important match for both sides.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -125