Serie A Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 6-7

Serie A Match Betting Preview for May 6-7

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 6-7 Serie A match predictions including AC Milan vs Lazio and Torino vs Monza. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

AC Milan vs Lazio | Saturday 5/6 | 9:00am ET

AC Milan -110 | Draw +215 | Lazio +295
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Tight. That’s the one-word summary of how this game is going to play out. We are down to five matches remaining for these teams and race for the Top-4 and Champions League qualification for next season is going to be fantastic with six teams all within six points and battling for three positions behind Napoli.

Of those teams, AC Milan and Roma were the only two that dropped points on Wednesday, both settling for draws which leaves both of them on the outside looking in.

AC Milan also have the scheduling issue of playing in this season’s Champions League semifinals next week against fellow Serie A side, Inter, so there are certainly questions on how they will lineup for this. But, the simple truth is they cannot afford to drop anymore points in Serie A.

Milan’s defense has played great though. Since a 1-3 loss at Udinese on March 18, they have played eight matches, including two Champions League games vs Napoli, and have conceded a total of four goals.

They haven’t allowed more than one goal in any of those games and have kept four clean sheets. At the same time, their offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders which I’m sure has something to do with juggling their full schedule between Serie A and Champions League.

They scored four against Napoli in the first match of their current run, and two against Lecce, but haven’t scored more than one goal in any of their other six. Thus, seven of those eight have finished Under the total.

Lazio continue to play solid defense as will, allowing three goals to a red-hot Inter team as they only time they have allowed more than one in their last seven matches. They have also kept a league-high 19 clean sheets this season including 11 of 16 away matches.

Both teams are in very good defensive form while neither offense is scoring a ton, plus this match is crucial to how these teams will finish the season. I see a very cautious approach to this match from both sides.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -120

Torino vs Monza | Sunday 5/7 | 9:00am ET

Torino -105 | Draw +220 | Monza +280
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.5 | Total: 2.0

I’ve been covering both teams’ games quite a bit the last few weeks, riding Torino Unders, while backing Monza every chance I can get including another midweek cover as +0.25 home underdogs to Roma.

In what I (and oddsmakers) expect to be a low-scoring match, getting a head start on the Double Chance of +0.5 is huge for Monza.

Since March 4, Monza is tied for third in the league with 16 points while Torino is not too far behind with 14. Both teams have been doing it on the defensive side of the ball.

Monza allowed two goals to Lazio, their only loss during this stretch, and two goals to Fiorentina which they won 3-2. Otherwise, they have held their opponents to one goal or less in seven of their nine matches. They have allowed 1.14 xGA per 90 minutes during this stretch, compared to 1.54 in their first 24 matches this season.

Torino has similar defensive numbers, allowing four goals to Napoli and two goals to Atalanta, but have held their opponents to one goal or less in seven of their last nine. Yet, they only have two wins over their last seven matches as they haven’t been scoring.

I’ve talked about it the last several weeks, the fact that they still have not scored more than two goals in any match this season, and over their last seven matches, they have scored two goals just one time which came on Wednesday vs the worst team in the league, Sampdoria.

I first looked to the Under for all those reasons, but oddsmakers, rightfully so, have the total set at a flat 2.0. Instead, I’ll take the head start once again on Monza in a match I expect to be tight, and one that Monza can pick up points as they have done in eight of their last nine.

Prediction: Monza +0.5 (DOUBLE CHANCE) -120

Lecce vs Verona | Sunday 5/7 | 2:45pm ET

Lecce +120 | Draw +195 | Verona +240
Asian Handicap: Lecce -0.25 | Total: 2.0

I was on the wrong side of Verona’s match with Inter on Wednesday, well not the side, but the total as I thought Verona would be able to contain Inter’s attack better than the did.

However, Inter has really looked good now for the last few games, so I’m going to give Verona the benefit of the doubt on this result as they have been very solid since the World Cup break otherwise.

Verona was on a four-match unbeaten run as they had improved defensively allowing a total of just three goals over those four matches on an average of only 1.03 xGA per 90 minutes. In fact, they have been excellent defensively since the WC break.

They have allowed more than one goal just twice in 17 matches, have kept five clean sheets, and have averaged just 1.15 xGA per match.

Compare that to before the WC where they allowed at least two goals ten times in 15 matches, didn’t keep a single clean sheet, and allowed an average of 1.52 xGA. Of course, now they did just concede six goals on 3.17 xG to Inter on Wednesday.

Lecce though is not Inter. They have one win in their last ten matches and have scored a total of just four goals, never more than one in a match, and were held scoreless six times.

On the season, Lecce have never scored more than two goals in any match and in a wild twist, they have also not allowed more than two goals in any match.

With an Under set at 2.0, I’ll once again skip that and take the head start on Verona in another match I expect to be very close. Lecce would be more than happy with a draw to stay four points clear of Verona and I don’t think we see them push the issue if they are tied late.

Prediction: Verona +0.25 -110