Serie A Predictions, Picks, Odds and Best Bets for May 13-14

Serie A Match Betting Preview for May 13-14

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 13-14 Serie A match predictions and best bets including Spezia vs AC Milan and Verona vs Torino. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Spezia vs AC Milan | Saturday 5/13 | 12:00pm ET

Spezia +300 | Draw +245 | AC Milan -120
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Obviously, the story of this match is a different match. What I mean by that is AC Milan plays Inter in the Champions League semifinals on Wednesday and of course this match is sandwiched in between Leg 1 and Leg 2 and will take a backseat in priority. However, I don’t think the result of Leg 1 will alter my opinion about this match.

For Milan, they go as their defense goes. Since a 1-3 loss to Udinese back in mid-March, they are now on a run of nine straight matches without a loss as their defense has conceded just four goals and never more than one in any match.

However, they have settled for five draws during that span as their offense has stalled scoring one goal or fewer in six of those nine matches.

They beat Napoli 4-0 in Serie A to start their current unbeaten run but have since played to eight straight Unders, including both UCL quarterfinal legs also against Napoli.

Then we have Spezia who is fighting for their Serie A lives. They are now in the bottom three thanks to a current run of eight straight matches without a win which has allowed Verona to leapfrog them.

They have been held scoreless four times in those eight matches scoring a total of just five goals. However, their defense hasn’t been too bad allowing just one goal four times, two goals twice, and three goals twice as six of eight have finished Under the total.

Looking at Spezia’s full season body of work, they are offensively challenged to say the least. They average just 1.06 xG per 90 minutes and have netted only 28 goals in 34 matches, 2nd fewest in Serie A ahead of only Sampdoria.

They have been blanked in nearly half of their matches, 16 times, including seven at home. Against the Top-6, they were blanked by Napoli twice, Juventus twice, Lazio twice, Inter, and Roma. However, they did get on the board in a 1-2 loss to AC Milan in the reverse fixture back in November.

Milan needs points though. They sit two points outside of the Top-4 to secure Champions League football next season and while winning the Champions League itself will qualify them again, they can’t put all their eggs in that basket.

I expect them to lock down Spezia defensively, grab a lead, and maybe push it up to two goals, then play this match out to conserve as many minutes on their starting XI as possible and be ready for Leg 2 vs Inter just four days later.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -115

Verona vs Torino | Sunday 5/14 | 6:30am ET

Verona +130 | Draw +205 | Torino +210
Asian Handicap: Verona -0.25 | Total: 2.0

Sure, Verona is still fighting against relegation while Torino is basically in no-man’s land, unable to qualify for European football next season while more than safe from relegation, but Torino is not mailing it in just yet with four matches still to go.

First instinct in this match was to look at the total as I have been taking as many Unders in Torino matches as I can.

They are not an offensive minded team and still have not scored more than two goals in any Serie A match this season, but oddsmakers have even taken away the hook now with another total set at a flat 2.0.

So, as I often like to do it what is expected to be a low-scoring match, is grab the head start, this time on Torino +0.25.

Verona is coming off a big win over Lecce on Sunday as they have finally climbed out of the relegation zone and now sit three points clear of Spezia.

That was only their 7th win of the season, but they have been a much better team the 2nd half of the season with six of their wins coming since the WC break, but they have not won back-to-back matches this season and I’m not buying that they should be favorites here.

Their list of opponents they have beaten includes Lecce twice, Bologna, Sassuolo, Salernitana, Cremonese and Sampdoria. Far from impressive.

Torino is the team that divides Serie A. Easily better than the bottom half of the table but a far cry from the talent at the top. If you look at their results on the season, you will see exactly that as they rarely grab points vs the Top-6 sides but almost always get something against the bottom half of the table.

A perfect example of that is they have just five losses in their last 16 matches and those came against Atalanta, Roma, Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan.

I think it’s safe to say Verona is not any of those teams. Further proof shows that Torino has a positive xG differential even on the road this season at +0.09, while Verona own a -0.35 xG differential at home.

1-1 seems like a very likely scenario for this match which will give us a half-win, but no matter what, I don’t see Torino losing this one.

Prediction: Torino +0.25 -125

Monza vs Napoli | Sunday 5/14 | 9:00am ET

Monza +360 | Draw +275 | Napoli -150
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.5

I’ve already said to myself that I’m done betting on Napoli this season. With the Scudetto wrapped up, there is just no reason to put money on a team that has no urgency to win. That being said, it doesn’t mean they are an automatic fade either. Unless they are playing Monza!

If you have been listening to anything I have said the last few weeks, you know I have been betting on Monza any chance I can get, and they have been delivering the results, covering the spread in each of their last six matches.

Over their last ten matches dating back to the beginning of March, they have just one loss which includes a win at Inter and a draw vs Roma, so they are more than capable of grabbing a result vs Napoli. During their two-month run, they are tied for 3rd in Serie A with 17 points, behind only Napoli and Fiorentina on 18.

Monza conceded two goals to Lazio, their only loss during this stretch, and two goals to Fiorentina which they won 3-2.

Otherwise, they have held their opponents to one goal or less in eight of their ten matches. They have allowed 1.10 xGA per 90 minutes during this stretch, compared to 1.54 in their first 24 matches this season.

Napoli has not been the same team over the last five weeks that we saw the rest of the season with just three wins in their last nine matches.

Perhaps it was the pressure of reaching the quarterfinals of the Champions League and being on the verge of their first Serie A title in 33 years or perhaps it had to do with the schedule of both competitions and basically playing every 3-4 days for five straight weeks.

Now with all of that behind them, perhaps they play more freely and win this thing by three goals. But I’m not betting on it. Let’s continue to ride the Monza train!

Prediction: Monza +0.75 -110