Nuggets vs Lakers: Western Conference Finals Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

Nuggets vs Lakers Series Betting Analysis

WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his expert Nuggets vs Lakers series prediction providing betting insights and analysis before Game 1 tip off May 16. The Nuggets were the best Western Conference regular season team with the Lakers finishing fifth in the Pacific Division.

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Nuggets vs Lakers Series Betting Odds

Series Betting	NBA Betting Notes, Courtesy of DraftKings
Moneyline to Win Series:	Denver Nuggets -155 vs Los Angeles Lakers +130
Series Spread:	Nuggets -1.5 (+150) / Lakers +1.5 (-185)
Series Total Games:	4 Games (+600), 5 Games (+310), 6 Games (+205), 7 Games (+170)
Series Correct Score	Nuggets 4-3 (+300), Lakers 4-2 (+380), Nuggets 4-1 (+475)
Featured Prop Bet:	Anthony Davis to average 25+ points and LAL wins series +250

Nuggets vs Lakers Series Betting Analysis

The No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers will meet the No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs to determine which team will go to the NBA Finals.

The Lakers and Nuggets met in the Conference Finals during the 2020 bubble, with the Lakers winning the series 4-1. These teams split their four regular season meetings during the 2022-23 campaign 2-2.

Los Angeles started the regular season 2-10 and became the fourth team to reach the Conference Finals after falling that far behind .500 since the 1970-71 season.

They took care of business in the play-in tournament, then beat the Memphis Grizzlies and defending champion Golden State Warriors to advance. The Nuggets raced out to the NBAs best record, securing the top seed behind two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Denver dismantled the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns en route to the Conference Finals.

Bookmakers are leaning towards Denver advancing to the NBA Finals as they are -125 favorites to win the series while the Lakers sit at +110. The Nuggets are -5.5 home favorites for Game 1 with a total set at 222.5.

 

No.1 Offense vs No. 1 Defense

The Los Angeles Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency through the first two rounds of the NBA postseason, allowing only 106.5 points per 100 possessions.

They were able to do that against two teams that ranked top 11 offensively during the regular season in Memphis and Golden State. On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions through the first two rounds which is the best mark for offensive efficiency in the playoffs.

That was against Minnesota and Phoenix, two teams that ranked top 10 defensively during the regular season. Both sides will be tested down low as they have ranked 1 and 2 in point in paint during the post-season. These teams love to get out and run, ranking 2 and 3 in fast break points.

 

Battle Of Big Men

For the first time in the NBA Playoffs, two elite big men will get the ultimate test. Overall, this isn’t your classic big-man matchup, but it will be outstanding nonetheless.

Davis didn’t see a tough matchup against Memphis with Steven Adams out and Golden State opted to go small. Jokic was somewhat tested by Rudy Gobert and De’Andre Ayton but those pale in comparison to AD.

Both players have different skill sets but both have tremendous impacts. Davis will have to deal with Joker’s footwork and soft touch around the rim.

Jokic will be dealing with tons of pressure as he doesn’t have Lebron James to lean on and he also has to counter ADs athleticism and ability to stretch the floor. This will be interesting to watch and could easily be the deciding factor in this series.

 

Nuggets vs Lakers Series Prediction

The Nuggets were better than the Lakers during the regular season and have played better in the post-season. Considering the home-court advantage, Denver should be considered the clear favorite to advance to the NBA Finals.

The Lakers will be hard pressed to steal a game in Denver as the Nuggets are a league best 40-7 in the altitude at home. If the Nuggets are able to steal a game in Los Angeles, that should be enough to avoid a winner take all Game 7.

The Nuggets have the superior supporting cast so it’s highly unlikely that Lonnie Walker IV or Rui Hachimura steal a game like they did earlier in the post-season.

Ultimately, the Lakers defense won’t be able to slow down the Denver offense enough to win the series. They were able to contain the Warriors offense largely because of ADs role as a helper and he won’t be able to do that against Jokic.

James and Davis don’t play like top-five players on a nightly basis due to age and inconsistency. Jokic does, and he will finally break into the NBA Finals.

Expert Prediction: Denver Nuggets Win Series -125 Caesars

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NBA Tip-Off Show | May 15

Join a rotating panel of WagerTalk handicappers for the NBA Tip-Off Show as we preview tonight’s NBA Playoff card from a betting perspective. We’ll go well beyond the Nuggets vs Lakers Series.

Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, stats, analysis, and predictions with our panel of pro sports bettors as they offer some of their favorite NBA best bets, player props and DFS recommendations on tonight’s slate.

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Meet the Author

Andy Lang has lived in Indianapolis his whole life, and like most people from the Hoosier State, he became fascinated with motor sports. That interest in motor sports turned into a desire to make money off the sport through fantasy contests and sports betting. Like most, he took his lumps when he first got started, but now he is one of the most respected NASCAR bettors in the industry. Andy has expanded that sports betting experience to become profitable in a number of other sports, transforming this interest from a side hobby to a major source of income.

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