MLS Predictions, Picks and Odds Saturday May 27

Betting Preview for MLS May 27

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Saturday May 27 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Orlando SC vs Atlanta United and New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Orlando SC vs Atlanta United | Saturday May 27 | 7:30pm ET

Orlando +125 | Draw +230 | Atlanta +200
Asian Handicap: Orlando -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Atlanta is the highest scoring team in the MLS netting 28 times already through 14 matches. Orlando, after a slow start to the season in terms of scoring, have picked up the pace as of late as they have netted six goals over their last three matches earning a win and two draws.

As expected, Atlanta has an 11-3 Over-Under record this season averaging a whopping 3.7 goals per match and this looks like a good spot for that trend to continue.

Atlanta isn’t as strong offensively on the road as they are at home but still lead the league in that department with 12 away goals. They have earned the most points on the road in the East which is odd to say considering they have also allowed the 2nd most goals per match away from home, now 17 through just seven matches.

While juggling Champions League duties early in the season, Orlando was unable to get their offensive foot going as they scored just three goals in their first four matches and never more than one in any match. However since then, they have scored 14 goals in nine matches with five matches scoring at least two goals.

xG shows a similar trend for Orlando as they averaged 0.88 per 90 minutes over their first four matches which has now increased to 1.20 per match since then. Certainly not on the level of Atlanta’s offense, but a significant improvement, nonetheless.

Now as they face one of the league’s leakiest away defenses, they should find plenty of chances to score in this match. Atlanta has allowed an average of 1.55 xGA per match over their last six and have scored in every match this season.

I don’t play ‘Overs’ very often, but I won’t shy away when I think the opportunity is there.

Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals -105

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire | Saturday May 27 | 7:30pm ET

New England -120 | Draw +255 | Chicago +280
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 2.75

By the eye test, this already looks like a no-brainer to grab New England at a fair price as the Rev sit 3rd in the East with a 7-3-3 record and +5 goal differential while Chicago is 14th in the table with a 3-6-4 record and -3 goal differential, but when you factor in the teams’ home/away splits, it really makes sense.

New England has not lost at home this season with a 4-2-0 record and 12:3 goal differential. Those three goals allowed represent the fewest allowed at home in the East and the 2nd fewest at home in all the MLS behind only Houston’s one!

In all honesty, they have overachieved on that a little bit as they allow 1.33 xGA per 90 minutes which does reduce to 1.03 at home, but that’s suggesting an average of allowing 1.0 goal per match, not 0.5.

However, this isn’t totally based on their defense, in fact, it’s their offense that has been even better at home as their 2.03 xg home average per match ranks 5th in the MLS and gives them a smooth +1.0 xG differential per home match.

Chicago is just 1-0-4 on the road this season which is something they struggle with every season. Admittedly, they have had a tough schedule having played Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Nashville on the road already, losing all three. New England will certainly not be any easier though. The Fire also lost at Charlotte while they did manage a win in Miami.

xG doesn’t show terrible numbers for Chicago away as they have averaged 1.30 xG while allowing 1.52 which does rank in the top-half of the league, but when facing a team like New England who can be so dangerous at home, it’s the difference in numbers that suggests we should see a clear advantage to the home side in pure volume of chances.

Chicago has also not beaten New England in eight straight matches and have also not won in New England since 2017.

Prediction: New England ML (or -0.5) -120

Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls | Saturday May 27 | 10:30pm ET

Seattle +100 | Draw +245 | NYRB +260
Asian Handicap: Seattle -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Well, last week was the rare miss on a NYRB Under, but I see this as a great spot to jump right back on the train as two good defenses do battle.

Three goals were scored in that first half in the NYRB-Montreal matchup, but then in typical Red Bulls fashion, the 2nd half produced nothing as they game finished 2-1.

New York has finished Under the total in 12 of 14 matches this season as they continue to own the league’s best defense according to xG while allowing the 2nd fewest actual goals per match behind only Nashville.

Those two teams also are the only two teams that allow fewer than 1.0 xGA per 90 minutes with New York leading the way at just 0.81 per match.

Seattle came roaring out of the gates this season in terms of scoring goals scoring 15 goals in their first seven matches. However, they have slowed significantly scoring just five goals over their last seven matches and never more than one goal in any game including each of the last three at home.

Like New York, their defense has remained solid as they only allow 1.01 xGA per 90 minutes which drops to 0.77 at home. What has changed is they went from averaging 1.94 xG per match in their first seven matches to now just 1.34 over their last seven.

I mentioned before that as NYRB sat bottom of the table in the East, they were a “buy” team as you can’t have a defense that good and miss out on the playoffs.

They are within two points of a playoff position now after two wins and a draw in their last three matches and Seattle is clearly a threat to win the West as they sit 2nd in the Conference behind only LAFC.

Often when two of the best teams meet, most bettors are quick to think goals will be scored but that is often not the case. Defense tends to shine more in the bigger matchups and that is certainly what I expect here.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -125