Serie A Predictions, Picks, Odds and Best Bets for May 27-28

Serie A Match Betting Preview for May 17-28

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 27-28 Serie A match predictions and best bets including Inter vs Atalanta and Juventus vs AC Milan. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Inter vs Atalanta | Saturday May 27 | 2:45pm ET

Inter -130 | Draw +270 | Atalanta +295
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.5 | Total: 2.75

Inter is coming off their Coppa Italia victory over Fiorentina on Wednesday and of course, have another opportunity at hardware in the Champions League final in two weeks’ time.

Add in the fact that Juventus was docked 10 points and it would take a lot to go wrong over their final two matches for Inter not to finish Top-4.

Of course, they can qualify for the Champions League also by beating Manchester City in the Champions League final, but by oddsmakers at least, they are a longshot to do so.

Speaking of Juventus’ 10-point reduction, that has subsequently opened the door for Atalanta to qualify for Champions League as they sit just three points back of AC Milan. Obviously, a win would be huge but because it’s directly against Inter, it would bring them within two points of Inter as well.

While that would clearly put more pressure on Inter in their final match, which they do not want as that is just one week prior to their Champions League final, they also do not need to win this match.

A draw will secure them Top-4 and a big reason why I like grabbing the head start on Atalanta. If they match is tied late, Inter is unlikely to go for the winner, rather just play it out to grab that important point and effectively put to bed their Serie A season.

By the numbers, Inter are worthy of their ‘favorite’ tag as they lead Atalanta in every major category, xG, xGA, Shots For and Allowed, including On Target, plus Corners For and Against. But when you get to this point of the season, most of that doesn’t matter as matches become so situational and this one is screaming to grab Atalanta.

Prediction: Atalanta +0.5 (DOUBLE CHANCE) +100

Monza vs Lecce | Sunday May 28 | 9:00am ET

Monza +170 | Draw +210 | Lecce +155
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.25

The Monza train keeps chugging along and with only two matches remaining, I see no reason to jump off now. Eight straight covers against the spread, though they were the underdog in all of them, this is the first time that they aren’t.

Over their last 12 matches dating back to the beginning of March, they have just one loss which includes wins vs Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina, plus a draw vs Roma. During their nearly three-month run, they lead Serie A with 23 points.

Monza conceded two goals to Lazio, their only loss during this stretch, and two goals to Fiorentina which they won 3-2.

Otherwise, they have held their opponents to one goal or less in ten of their 12 matches. They have allowed 1.13 xGA per 90 minutes during this stretch, compared to 1.54 in their first 24 matches this season.

While Monza have nothing to play for in their last two matches, they 100% are going to keep pushing for wins and try to finish in the top-half of the table which will give them some high belief heading into next season.

Lecce are the team that needs a result here as they continue to battle against relegation. However, they aren’t in a truly dire situation as they sit three points clear of Verona and two points up on Spezia.

I think that is factored into this line as Monza should be favorites in this match be at least a quarter of a goal so being able to get the Draw No Bet line at this current price is very good value in my opinion.

Lecce have one win in their last 13 matches. Suddenly now with only two matches remaining in a “must-win” situation they are going to do it? I don’t buy it.

Prediction: Monza +0 (DRAW NO BET) -105

Juventus vs AC Milan | Sunday May 28 | 2:45pm ET

Juventus +130 | Draw +235 | AC Milan +185
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Well, that was certainly a disappointing, err, embarrassing result for Juve losing 1-4 at Empoli in match that was extremely important for them to win to be able to finish Top-4 despite their 10-point reduction.

Still, they have hope. If they win this match, they will pull within two points of AC Milan, though Roma and Atalanta sit in between so the true gap will also depend on the results of those matches, but Juventus do have an outside chance.

Milan couldn’t have been handed an easier must-win match after being eliminated from the Champions League as they had to quickly turn around and get a result in Serie A to try and return to the Champions League again next season. Now their situation is simple. Win and they will qualify as they hold the tiebreaker over Atalanta.

So, with this match being basically the entire season for both teams, this is screaming Under to me. Both teams’ seasons have been ruled by defense.

Juventus have conceded 32 goals which is the 3rd fewest in the league while their 1.09 xGA per 90 minutes ranks as the 5th fewest. AC Milan have conceded more goals, 42, however, their xGA numbers are slightly lower than Juventus, allowing 1.07 per match which ranks as the 4th fewest.

Both teams reached the semifinals rounds of their respective European competitions because of their defense.

Juventus kept four clean sheets in eight matches in the Europa League, never allowing more than one goal in any match as seven of those eight finished Under the total.

AC Milan kept three clean sheets in six matches and even though they lost both semifinal matches vs Inter, they were the side that failed to score in those matches, so all six of their Champions League matches finished Under the total.

With this match likely to play out like a European knockout match, it only makes sense to play the Under in a must-win match for both sides.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -105