UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 17

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for June 17 with Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier headlining the event. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, June 17	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Martin Vettori v Jared Cannonier
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -180 / Under +150)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

2-1 last week in UFC, but the big play lost so we’ll try and improve this week. This is a big betting week in MMA as there is an event in PFL, Bellator and UFC and I will have plays in all three.

Grab the plays here: http://wt.buzz/al

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Alessandro Costa Inside The Distance -130

Jimmy Flick makes his second fight since his return to the octagon, and I think this fight will go about as good as his fight against Charles Johnson went.

Johnson isn’t a great UFC fighter as he’s 2-3 in the UFC with one win being a split decision, and the other win being a a first round KO of Flick. Flick is known as a submission guy as he won by submission on Contender Series and in his UFC debut in 2020, but that’s all he has.

In his last 16 fights he’s won 10 of them, all by submission, and he’s lost all the others so if he doesn’t submit his opponent he loses.

He took time off, and came back to the UFC after he got divorced, lost his job, and his life outside fighting wasn’t going well at all. He looked terrible against Johnson, and Costa is no joke. He lost his UFC debut to Amir Albazi and that loss doesn’t look bad at all.

He took the fight on short notice and held his own in the first round before he got tired. With a full camp, he won’t have cardio issues and his striking will be dominant over Flick.

If he stays out of the submissions, he’ll piece Flick apart and eventually get the knockout, and based on what I saw from Flick in his last fight, staying out of Flick’s submission won’t be difficult.

Denys Bondar -130 v Carlos Hernandez

Lot of unknowns here, but I’m not very high on Hernandez’s skill set as he really doesn’t do much well. He won a split decision against Altamirano, and then got submitted in round 1 by Allan Nascimento, but beating Altamirano isn’t that impressive.

We had bet on Bondar in his UFC debut to beat Malcolm Gordon, but he broke his arm early in the fight in a scramble.

Bondar comes from a pretty violent league where they allow quite a few things that the UFC doesn’t allow so we know he’s tough, and he won his eight previous fights before his UFC debut all by finish.

I lean Bondar in this fight, but not enough for me to make an investment on him. This fight to not go the distance would be the way to go.

Modestas Bukauskas -195 v Zac Pauga

I’ve followed Pauga since week one on his season of The Ultimate Fighter, and he’s decent, but he got knocked out by Muhammad Osman, and won a decision against Jordan Wright by having over 8 minutes of control, but it wasn’t that impressive of a win.

I think Bucauskas has him covered in this fight, and I don’t see Bukauskas staying stationary to let Paugua control him. We correctly predicted Bukauskus to upset Tyson Pedro last fight by using his movement, speed and cardio to tire out Pedro and he did exactly that. I think he utilizes the same tools, and don’t underestimate the motivation of Modestas.

He was cut from the UFC, won some regional fights to get another chance in the UFC, and based on how good he looked against Pedro, I think he’s found new life and a real sense of controlled urgency. I think he wins here, and if you want a better price, take him to win by decision.

Ronnie Lawrence -180 over Dan Argueta

Two grapplers here so expect a long fight so I will say this fight is a To Start Round 2 parlay piece for sure. As for the side, I think it’s dog or pass.

Lawrence got dominated last fight when Kakhramonov pushed the offense forward, and while Argueta isn’t nearly as good as Kakhramonov, he will get aggressive early and he’ll try and crowd Lawrence and work his own wrestling game.

Argueta can gas himself so I don’t totally trust him, but I definitely don’t trust Lawrence at -180. I’ll take this fight to start round 2 and I’ll parlay it with a few other props.

Tereza Bleda -240 v Gabriella Fernandez

Fernandez lost her debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius by getting taken down four times, but that loss doesn’t look as bad now after Jasmine dominated Miranda Maverick.

Bleda’s style is similar to Jasmine’s in that she likes to grapple, get takedowns, and stay on the ground. However, I don’t think she’s as good as Jasmine. She’s only 21 years old and I wonder if she’s been elevated too early.

She got knocked out by Natalia Silva in her last fight, but the concern with Bleda is cardio. She gasses pretty easily, and Fernandes is a great striker that will torch Bleda on the feet if she stuffs takedowns.

I’ll take the underdog in this one as I think Fernandes can land enough strikes to damage Bleda, and Fernandes has one thing to work on in camp for this fight…takedown defense. If she’s able to make Bleda work hard for takedowns, Bleda will gas and if she keeps it on the feet look for a KO from Fernandes.

Christian Quinonez -161 v Kyung Ho Kang

Quinonez has a lot of stoppages in his short career, but I think Kang can use his jab and toughness to extend the fight. Christian will probably go for takedowns as that’s been a problem for Kang in the past.

I lean Quinonez in this fight, but the -161 is a bit steep. I also think the fight duration props are trouble because Quinonez has early stoppages, but Kang is better than those other opponents. My best advice is to stay away from this fight. It should be exciting, but unbeatable for me.

Raoni Barcelos -211 v Mies Johns

Barcelos is towards the end of this career and he’s lost some fights he wouldn’t have a few years ago, and there’s no way I’m betting on him at -211.

Miles Johns is a decent fighter, and even though Johns is listed as a wrestler, I think Barcelos might go for takedowns more in this fight.

I won’t bet a side on this one, but this is a must add to the To Start Round 2 parlays. Every fight for Miles Johns, 15 of them, has started round 2, and Barcelos has one fight since 2015 that’s finished in round 1.

Muslim Salhikov -182 v Nicolas Dalby

Salhikov is coming off a KO win, but it was against Andre Fialho who is being exposed as not a good UFC fighter. Salhikov is low volume, he can wrestle, but he’s 39 years old.

Dalby is 4-1 in the UFC, and will compete against Salhikov fairly even, but I think early on Salhikov will have the edge in the clinch and striking. That being said, this is another perfect fight to start round 2.

I lean Salhikov in this one, but I think it could be a bit sweaty in the third round as the 39 year old may slow down if the pace is good in the first two rounds.

Dalby would be wise to push Salhikov hard in round 1 and try and pull ahead late, but that’s asking a lot against a big, tough guy who can strike, clinch and wrestle. Just take this one to start round 2, or take it to go the distance at a much better price.

Pat Sabbatini -180 v Lukas Almeida

I’m wiling to lay the juice on this one with Sabbatini. Sabbatini had won six fights in a row before Damon Jackson sparked him in round 1 in September to get the win, but I expect a nice return from Pat here.

He’ll shoot for takedowns all fight, and if he gets Almeida down he should be able to keep him there for the rest of the round.

Almeida lost to a good fighter on the Contender Series, and got the win a year ago in his UFC debut, but I don’t see his takedown defense holding up. Take Sabbatini all day in this one.

Christian Leroy Duncan -147 v Armen Petrosyan

This fight worries me with Duncan being a favorite. We really haven’t seen him in a real fight with a legit fighter. Todorovic got hurt early into the fight in Duncan’s UFC debut, and before that he just hasn’t faced great competition.

You’re probably not going to tell everyone the story about an amazing, exciting Armen Petrosyan fight in the UFC, but you may cash a ticket on him this week as an underdog.

Petrosyan’s loss in the UFC is to Caio Borrallho, which doesn’t look bad at all now. He recently beat AJ Dobson by outlanding him 118-58 in significant strikes, and I think he’s going to give Duncan some strikes and power that Duncan hasn’t had before.

Duncan will no doubt push forward at the beginning trying to set the tone, but I think Petrosyan can weather the storm and take Duncan into deeper waters and if he does, I like Petrosyan to have the better cardio and energy in round 3. This fight is close to a coin flip in my opinion, I see Petrosyan winning a close decision.

UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction

Marvin Vettori -115 v Jared Cannonier

Just take the over in this one. I can’t tell you how not excited I am to watch this fight. It will be a standard Marvin Vettori fight with tons of clinching, and close fighting against the fence.

It will also be a Jared Cannonier fight with leg kicks, and somewhat low volume with punches. This is a guy who landed 57 head shots in five rounds against Sean Strickland.

The announcers will be talking about how tough Vettori is and how strong Cannonier is as these two sweaty guys are up against the fence trading clinch body shots for five rounds as the fans all nod off to sleep.

Cannonier is 39 years old and won’t be able to finish Vettori, and the last six fights of Vettori have gone the distance. Take the over in this fight.

Main Event Prediction: Over 4.5 Rounds -180


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