MLS Predictions, Picks and Odds For June 17

Betting Preview for MLS June 17

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his June 17 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC and Nashville SC vs St Louis City SC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC | June 17 | 7:30pm ET

New England -125 | Draw +260 | Orlando +295
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Going for the Florida sweep here in back-to-back weeks as the Rev made easy work of Miami last weekend and now face Orlando City on Saturday night.

Prior to their win over Miami, the Revolution were on a slide going winless in five matches, however, four of those were on the road. At home they have been excellent.

New England has not lost at home going 5-3-0 with a +11 goal differential. They average the most xG per match at 2.00 and have the 4th best xG differential at +0.93 per 90 minutes.

Over their last five home matches, they have been particularly strong at creating chances, averaging 2.54 xG. On the defensive side, they allowed 2.10 xGA to Cincinnati in a 1-1 draw, but aside from that, have allowed only 0.93 xGA in their other seven home matches.

Orlando has been the best team away from home in the entire league this season earning 14 points, so why would we want to fade them here?

Results don’t always tell the full tale and the warning signs are there for the Lions. They may have earned the most points this season, but they have also been the biggest overperformer in the league away from home as their 14 points have come on an xP (expected points) total of just 8.5 which ranks 19th in the league and is a more telling sign of what to expect going forward.

Then there’s that little issue to deal with called the international break. Orlando will be without their starting keeper Pedro Gallese, midfielder Wilder Cartagena and most importantly, and negatively impactful, their leading goalscorer Facundo Torres.

The Revolution will also be without their starting keeper but that is their only meaningful loss. Advantage, New England.

Prediction: New England Revolution ML (or -0.5) -120

Nashville SC vs St Louis City SC | June 17 | 8:30pm ET

Nashville -155 | Draw +295 | St Louis +370
Asian Handicap: Nashville -0.75 | Total: 2.75

St Louis has surprised everyone this year as the expansion side leads all of MLS with 33 goals scored and sit atop the Western Conference table at the halfway point of the season. They are allowing an average of only 1.06 goals per match which ranks as the 8th best, however the worrisome number for STL is they are allowing 1.51 xGA per 90 minutes which ranks 28th.

This gives us another overperformance for a side that likely only has one direction to go from here. Their +14 goal differential compared to an xG differential of -2.8 is the largest in the league by a wide margin. +16.8 better than expected with the next closest coming in around +5.0.

Meanwhile, Nashville is having a very good year themselves, but their results have been warranted, at least when compared to expected. Nashville leads the MLS defensively allowing only 0.94 xGA per match and own the 4th best xG differential per 90 minutes at +0.38. At home, that increases to +0.91 with a much-improved attack.

Nashville has a 16:5 goal differential at home leading to a 6-2-1 record and have won six straight games including two US Open Cup matches. St Louis, after a 3-0 away start, are now winless in their last five in all competitions scoring a total of just two goals.

In their last four MLS matches, they have created only 0.75 xG per match while allowing 1.75. In Nashville’s last four home MLS matches, they have created 2.85 xG per match while allowing only 0.85.
Talk about two teams trending in opposite directions. Don’t overthink it, just ride along with it.

Prediction: Nashville SC -0.75

San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers | June 17 | 10:30pm ET

San Jose +100 | Draw +235 | Portland +250
Asian Handicap: San Jose -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Last week’s win over Philadelphia only solidified what the data had already shown. The Quakes are good…when they play at home.

San Jose is one of only two teams in the West that is unbeaten at home (the other is LAFC). They have six wins and two draws with a 13:5 goal differential, but it’s not a fluke. xG shows San Jose averaging 1.73 per match while allowing just 0.91 which is the 6th best differential in the league.

They have also beaten the defending champion and CCL runner-up, LAFC, along with last season’s other finalist, Philadelphia. They big key for them has been their defense which has not allowed more than one goal in any home match.

Portland has been an odd team this year. Though they have scored 20 goals, they have struggled to score more often than not.

During a 5-match span from mid-April thru mid-May, the Timbers scored 12 goals including four vs Seattle and three vs Vancouver, though those both came at home. In their other 12 matches they scored a total of just eight goals and only once did they score more than one. They have been blanked in three of their last five.

On the road, Portland has won just one match this season with three draws and five losses. They are creating only 0.92 xG per 90 minutes while allowing 1.56. They have created more xG than their opponent just one time which came in their 2-1 win at St Louis.

Finally, the Quakes have been undervalued by bookmakers all season as they stand at 11-5-1 against the spread including 6-2 at home and 5-2 in the favorite role. I was honestly expecting to see this price north of -140 so I’m pleasantly surprised at the number and will gladly pay around even money.

Prediction: San Jose ML (or -0.5) +100