UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 24

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for June 24 with Illia Topuria and Josh Emmett headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL.

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Ilia Topuria vs Josh Emmett Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, June 24	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Ilia Topuria -320 vs Josh Emmett +250
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over +180 / Under -220)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL
TV:	ABC

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Decent week of betting for our picks last week, but my biggest regret was not playing Costa ITD over Jimmy Flick. It was the most obvious play on the UFC card, and I only played the ML in a parlay so that was money left on the table. Still a nice week, and we’ll look to add to the winnings of an already solid 2023.

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UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Tatsuro Taira -300 v Kleydson Rodrigues +250

Taira is a big favorite in this fight, and it’s justified. His takedown game and submission game is elite, and I don’t think Kleydson can stay out of harms way.

He lost a split decision to CJ Vergara two fights ago, and Vergara did well against him on the ground, and Taira submitted Vergara late in 2022. Taira is undefeated and five of his last six fights he’s won by submission.

Rodrigues is coming a dominant victory, but the opponent was lackluster and I don’t see how Rodrigues stays off the ground. Taira’s money line is a bit pricey, but if you want to take a shot on him to win by submission, I think he can get there against Rodrigues.

Jamall Emmers -165 v Jack Jenkins +140

Very fun fight here that should be exciting, and I’m a Jack Jenkins fan mostly because I cashed on him in Contender Series and in his UFC debut, but I think he comes up just a bit short here.

I love his skillset, he’s come up through a really good league in Australia, and his fight IQ is off the charts as him and his team do a great job taking advantage of his opponents weaknesses, but I think Emmers has a bit too much athleticism for Jenkins.

Emmers is 2-2 in the UFC losses against Giga Chikadze and Pat Sabatini, which aren’t bad losses especially considering the loss to Giga was a split decision in Emmers debut, but his scrambling, cardio and overall game looked good in February against Akhabov.

If the fight stays on the feet, I think Emmers has the movement and speed advantage, and on the ground I think Emmers can get out of Jenkins wrestling and implement his own ground offense. I won’t bet on this fight, but it will be a great scrap and I lean Emmers.

Trevor Peek -125 v Chepe Mariscal +105

I went into this fight thinking I would bet on Peek, but I’ve completely changed my mind. Mariscal is stepping in on a bit of short notice from the LFA, and I loved what he showed in his last fight as he put on a great show and got the finish in the second round with great striking, ground and pound and cardio.

I think the cardio is where he pulls away from Peek in this one. Peek is a warrior and throws strikes to finish guys, and his backstory is pretty incredible, but in his UFC debut that he won by first round knockout, he put all his effort into the early finish and he got it, but he was tiring.

Both these guys are brawlers, and taking this fight to not go the distance is the best parlay piece on the card, but if Peek doesn’t get Mariscal out early, I think he fades and Mariscal eventually gets the finish.

Tabatha Ricci -125 v Gillian Robertson +105

No bets on this fight for me and I would advise everyone to stay away. Ricci likes to push the pace, and has solid cardio, she can strike, work takedowns and fight with a lot of pressure while Robertson loves working off her back searching for arm bars and other submissions.

I can see anything in this fight happening. Ricci could outwork Robertson for three rounds, or Robertson could take advantage of her aggressive fighting style and lock up a quick submission.

No opinion on the outright winner or distance, but I think this could be a really fun, entertaining fight.

Randy Brown -230 v Wellington Turman +205

On paper, Randy Brown should dominate Turman as he has has the better skillset everywhere, but Brown just can never seem to put it together.

He won a split decision against Chaos Williams, and then barely beat a 43 year old Francisco Trinaldo in a fight he could’ve lost, and then he got KO’d by Jack Maddellena. Turman is 3-3 in the UFC, but his three wins are against bad opponents.

I really don’t see what Turman does that well as his striking is not sharp, his wrestling is ok, but he can be taken down pretty easily, and his cardio isn’t great. If Brown is fighting with the upside that he has, he should piece Turman up on the feet en route to victory, and I think he will.

He needs to put on a good performance to justify he’s spot on the roster as he’s fallen quite a bit the last two fights, and I think he wins a fairly boring fight that stays on the feet.

Justin Tafa -170 v Austen Lane +145

Fight fans know the name Justin Tafa, but Austen Lane has six more pro fights than Tafa, just not in the UFC. I like Lane here, which is probably not a popular opinion, but I don’t like Tafa’s skill set.

He is 3-3 in the UFC with his three wins being against the worst of the worst in this division (Parker Porter, Harry Hunsucker, Juan Adams).

Austen Lane is a former NFL player who has great cardio, and I think he uses his size to close the distance against Tafa, and if he doesn’t get sparked, he’ll wrestle Tafa and try and get him to the ground, and if he gets it there he has a big advantage with his par power and size.

All of Tafa’s UFC wins came by first round knockout and I think it shows that Tafa is a one trick pony. I’ll trust Lane’s natural athleticism to stay out of harms way and grind out a win in his UFC debut against Tafa, who I just don’t believe in.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov -180 v Joshua Van +155

I don’t have a whole lot to say about this fight as Van is taking this fight short notice, but his last fight was in 2022, and we’ve seen plenty of fighters in his position have success this year coming in from “lesser” organizations and having success against UFC talent.

He’s a good fighter everywhere, has finished all seven of his wins, and it should be a good fight against Zhalgas who I just don’t trust.

He doesn’t have an exciting fighting style, the judges don’t reward his slow pace, his last fight he managed to take breaks by milking some low blows, I just don’t like him as a fighter despite his new haircut. This is stay away from me.

Neil Magny -165 v Philip Rowe +145

It’s a pretty big step up in competition for Rowe here, and Magny has lost two of three, but they were to two beasts in Burns and Rakhmonov. Magny just doesn’t have a high ceiling, and he appears to be a gate keeper at this point.

Rowe hasn’t fought the greatest competition, and he’s at his best when he’s going toe to toe on the feet against fighters, and I think Magny will see Rowe’s lack of ground game/wrestling/grappling as his weakness.

Rowe got a couple takedown against Niko Price last fight, but did nothing with the first one and instead pieced him up on the feet. I think Magny’s fight IQ wins out in this fight and he makes this a dirty boxing, wrestling, ground game fight.

I like overs in this fight as both guys will be really tough to finish in this one. Lean Magny to win, but I like this fight to last a while so I would look at props like the fight to start round 2 or round 3.

David Onama +195 v Gabriel Santos -230

This is a stay away fight for me. Obama hasn’t fought since last August when him and Nate Landwehr put on a war for the ages, and while it appears Landwehr has recovered, it was the kind of fight that changes a fighter permanently and I want to take a wait and see approach with him.

Gabriel Santos put on a great showing against Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut showing good forward pressure into takedowns where he is at his best. He can win for sure if Onama isn’t sharp, but I’ll not bet on this fight.

Cody Brundage -180 v Sedriques Dumas +155

The only way to bet this fight is to not go the distance or take an under 2.5 or even 1.5. Dumas has never gone the distance, and got choked out in his UFC debut by Josh Fremd who isn’t great.

Cody Brundage has cardio for about one round, and then he’s done. I don’t know who wins this low level fight, but I do know it won’t take long. Play unders.

Maycee Barber +155 v Amanda Ribas -180

This should be a really close fight, and a high level womens fight where I really can’t
find a big advantage for either fighter. Both are good on the ground, but I do think Ribas is a big more aggressive in her ground game, and on the feet Ribas is a big quicker, but I think Barber has more power.

This isn’t a fight where I would bet on an outright winner, but because both women are so strong and technically sound I think this goes the distance as their skill sets end up cancelling each other out and the defense of each woman won’t allow the finish from the other.

I think you’ll see some really good stretches of striking, and some really good stretches of ground game, but I don’t see a finish in this fight so I’ll be taking it to go the distance.

UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction

Ilia Topuria -320 v Josh Emmett +250

I don’t understand why Topuria is such a favorite here. Because he beat the hell out of Bryce Mitchell who has no stand up game? Because Emmett lost to elite fighter, Yair Rodriguez? I don’t get it.

I’ll start with Topuria. He’s 13-0 in his career, but his opponents in the UFC haven’t been amazing. Last fight he exposed Bryce Mitchells lack of stand up game as he stuffed takedowns and pummeled him on the feet.

Before that he knocked out Jai Herbert, but in the fight he got smoked several times on the feet including a huge shot from Herbert that put Topuria down, and in survive mode. He then adjusted and got the KO in the second, but he absorbed shots.

Before that, he beat Ryan Hall and Damon Jackson, guys no where near the caliber of Josh Emmett. Topuria has lethal power, but he leaves himself wide open, and his ground game hasn’t truly been tested by someone as powerful as Emmett.

Josh Emmett’s last three opponents have been Dan Ige, Calvin Kattar, and Yair Rodriguez…all better than anyone Topuria has faced. Emett beat Ige and Kattar and was doing great against Rodriguez before Yair pulled off a fantastic triangle on the ground to surprise Emmett, but make no mistake, Emmett was on top because he caught a knee from Yair and took him down and the fight was close.

Emmett can be low volume, and he likes to close the distance to try and land big shots, and that can also be his Achilles heel because if he doesn’t land, he’s open to be countered and he’s not the fastest guy on the feet so really fast guys can move around and tire him out.

Topuria should have the speed advantage, but I’ll lean Emmett in this one as he’s been in wars and knows how to go into deep waters. I think he’ll land some big shots on Topuria, and take some of the sting out of Topuria’s power, and if makes this a slug fest, I like his chances to pull the upset.

Prediction: Josh Emmett Moneyline +250


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