John Deere Classic Predictions, Picks and Odds July 6-9
John Deere Classic Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the John Deere Classic teeing off from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the John Deere Classic starting July 6!
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| John Deere Classic | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 6-9 |
| Where: | TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois |
| Defending Champ: | J.T. Poston |
| Current Favorite: | Russell Henley (+1400 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | GOLF & CBS |
John Deere Classic Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)
The Course & Field – TPC Deere Run (Silvis, Illinois)
From Nick Borrman:
Typically, one of the weakest field events of the year, the John Deere Classic gives residents in the Quad Cities of Iowa and Illinois their only taste of the PGA TOUR.
It’s certainly an odd scheduling spot as most of the big names align their schedule to travel across the pond for the next two weeks to play in the Scottish Open and of course, the Open Championship.
The tournament will play out very much like we have seen the last two weeks with the winning score likely in the mid 20-under par range. It is also likely that a first-time winner could emerge here which has happened in five of the last 11 years.
Headlining the field this week is Cameron Young, the TOUR Rookie of the Year last season, still in search of his first TOUR win. He is clearly using this week to build some momentum as he typically only plays in the big events but has been struggling as of late and hasn’t posted a Top-10 finish since the Masters.
In addition, there are only a handful of the Top-50 players in the world teeing it up at Deere Run which will bring many names into play as potentional winners.
It also drastically reduces the prices on guys that you would normally consider longshots in the 80 to 100-1 range, now being priced in the 20 or 30-1 area.
TPC Deere Run plays to a par-71 at just under 7,300 yards. The course features wider-than-average fairways as well as large greens.
The rough can be long if you miss big enough at upwards of 4 inches or more, but the field averages nearly 13 greens per round so there isn’t a lot of missing. As per usual, ball-striking numbers are what you should focus your attention on this week.
I wouldn’t worry too much about course history though. Sure, there are a few players like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker who have made careers out of just this tournament, but many young stars play this event early in their career before cutting it out of their schedule in future seasons.
First-timers have had plenty of success including joint runners-up last year, Emiliano Grillo and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
Weather looks fantastic with temps in the upper 70s all week. There is a chance of some thunderstorms on Saturday/Sunday but nothing to give any advantage to the Thursday or Friday draws.
John Deere Classic Predictions
This is another great week to sprinkle a few more names on your Outright card at slightly lower risk but with much bigger reward.
There are several names in the 40-1 to 60-1 range that can win. Don’t shy away from them. However, I’ll start with one of the favorites.
John Deere Classic Outright Winner
Denny McCarthy +1600 (FanDuel)
His first TOUR win is coming and at a venue where five first-timers have won in the last 11 editions, this seems like a good time to take a chance.
McCarthy has finished inside the Top-20 in ten of his last 15 starts including four Top-10s with a Runner-up at the Memorial.
He has gained strokes putting in eight straight starts including gaining nearly 32 strokes over just his last six. He is not long but is very accurate off the tee and his approach play has been very solid including gaining over 9 strokes on approach over his last three starts.
In what is likely to turn into a putting contest this week, I’m good with backing the 4th best putter on TOUR this season who also ranks 1st in putting inside of 10 feet.
Finally, he is coming here with good mojo from last year’s T6 finish.
John Deere Classic Leaderboard Finish
Emiliano Grillo Top-10 +370 | Top-20 +190 (FanDuel)
Grillo has only played this event once, but he made it count with a T2 here last year and he combines that with good form coming into this week.
He has five Top-23 finishes in his last eight starts including three Top-10s, one of those of course being his win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He has gained strokes on approach in six of his last eight starts with the only two events he didn’t gain strokes being the two majors, the US Open and PGA Championship. In his six other most recent TOUR starts, he has gained a total of over 33 strokes on approach for an average of 5.5 per start.
Like McCarthy, Grillo isn’t long, but he is accurate and based on the total distance of TPC Deere Run, that should leave him in the 150-175 yard approach range very often which has proven to be an effective distance as Grillo ranks 10th in proximity from that range.
John Deere Classic Top-10 Player to Avoid
Cameron Young +2000
There is a part of me that wants to take Young because he is, on paper, head and shoulders above this field in talent. But he is not in good form, and I don’t want to bet on a guy that is struggling coming into an event.
Young doesn’t have a Top-10 since the Masters, a run of seven events played. During those seven tournaments, his best finish was a T32 along with two missed cuts. His putting has been woeful during that run.
Young’s strength is his distance off the tee which is only behind Rory. That is always an advantage but with none of the rest of his game clicking right now, I’ll be perfectly content if he happens to right the ship and win this week because I won’t feel like I missed out on a guy I ‘should’ have been on.
See you next week for the Genesis Scottish Open!
John Deere Classic Betting Preview From WagerTalk Extra!
Tune in later as Nick Borrman and Andy Lang collaborate on WagerTalk Extra to give their individual John Deere Classic betting predictions and picks before this event tees off on Thursday morning. Get their outright winner plays, golfers to fade and even DFS options to take advantage of.
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