World Cup 2023 Predictions, Sleepers, Busts and Best Bets

Rugby World Cup 2023 Betting Predictions

Rugby World Cup 2023 kicks off in France on September 8th and Rugby betting expert Kevin Dolan gives his thoughts on where the betting value lies with respect to who will come out on top in the tournament as a whole, who the potential dark horses are, and any teams worth avoiding also.

Below we’ll go over who we believe offer the best outright value in each market ahead of September’s Rugby World Cup.

Countries	Odds to Win Rugby World Cup 2023 (DraftKings)
France	+275
New Zealand	+300
Ireland	+400
South Africa	+450
Australia	+900
England	+1000
Argentina	+2800
Wales	+3000

Rugby World Cup 2023 Winner – Australia (+900)

In terms of sheer value, Australia offers the best outright price to lift this year’s Webb Ellis trophy in our view.

With the top four nations of Ireland, France, New Zealand, and South Africa all sandwiched in on one side of the draw, the Wallabies have a relatively straightforward path all the way through to the final, should they perform to what they’re capable of.

Obviously, England, Argentina, Wales, and Fiji might have something to say about that, but there’s no question, at least in our mind, that Australia presents the strongest chance of success on that side of the draw, especially with Steve Borthwick still putting the pieces together in his new role as England boss.

As we outlined previously in the group preview, Australia has serious depth in their squad with the likes of Michael Hooper, Rob Valetini, and Marika Koroibete, and when they’re at their best, employ a direct pressure style which should only grow further in confidence under new manager Eddie Jones.

Australia are coming into this tournament a little under the radar, winning just five of their last 14 tests overall, and getting beat for the first time ever by Italy last year also.

That should only add fuel to the fire for this Australian team come September however, and while they may run into a genuine elite-level team towards the end of the competition, +900 offers us enough value to potentially hedge out of our position should we need to.

Sleepers – Argentina (+3100) & Fiji (+12000)

Arguably one of the real dark horses ahead of this year’s tournament, Argentina have been playing some of the most impressive rugby out of any team on the planet over the last year, and it would not be at all surprising to see them top this group as a result.

Argentina beat both Australia and New Zealand in back-to-back games last August, following that up with an impressive win against the English in Twickenham as well.

Those successes have shown just how capable this Pumas side is, with not much separating the big boys in Pools C & D on this side of the draw, with England, Australia, and Argentina ranking 6th, 7th, and 8th in the world respectively.

In the likes of Marcos Kremer and Emiliano Boffelli, the Argentinians possess genuine elite-level talent, and with Steve Borthwick still finding his feet in the England role, Argentina will no doubt feel confident of upsetting the applecart in this group and handing England their second straight defeat in what’s set to be an extremely tantalizing opening day clash in Pool D on September 9th in Marseille.

Another potential dark horse at an absolutely huge price is Fiji who, if they can overcome a reeling Welsh squad in their opening game of Group C in Bordeaux, has a real shot of qualification and book their place into a quarter-final berth.

The Fijians have benefitted immensely from both the new eligibility rule changes, bringing in the likes of ex-All Blacks winger Seta Tamanivalu into the squad among others, and a restructured Super Rugby Pacific format that has allowed them to build up more cohesion in the squad ahead of this year’s World Cup.

Bust Teams – South Africa (+450) & Wales (+3000)

While it may appear counter-intuitive to fade the joint all-time record World Cup winners and current holders South Africa, there are enough reasons going into this World Cup in which to do so.

South Africa just look a half-step behind their other three big competitors right now on their side of the draw, namely France, New Zealand, and Ireland.

Ireland have beaten the Springboks in back-to-back test matches, including four of the last six also, with South Africa losing to both France and New Zealand over the last 12 months as well.

While the Springboks always present a difficult proposition in big tournament-type atmospheres, with an ongoing injury crisis happening right now among some of their top players, along with the firm guarantee of running into either New Zealand or host nation France in the quarter-finals as well, +500 just doesn’t offer enough value currently to back South Africa at this kind of price.

Wales meanwhile are a huge price, especially considering the men from the valleys went all the way to the semi-finals back in 2019, but a lot has changed in the intervening four years.

Wales struggled mightily during the recent Six Nations tournament, posting just one win total, and had the worst points differential out of any team in the entire competition as well at -63.

After former coach Wayne Pivac was fired from his role at the end of last year, returning boss Warren Gatland has since taken over the job once again, trying to get this team back to the highs of where he left them at the end of 2019.

However, in a recent interview Gatland made no secret of the fact that if he had known the full extent of all the issues going on in the Welsh camp right now, he simply wouldn’t have re-taken the job.

Sexism scandals leading to the chief executive’s dismissal, contractual disputes with top players, and long-standing experience leaving the squad in the form of Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric’s retirements, have left the Welsh set-up in a less-than-ideal state, and even at current odds of +3700, the Welsh simply offer no value in terms of making a deep run in this competition.

Rugby World Cup 2023 Best Bets

Outright Winner: Australia (+900)

Sleepers: Argentina (+3100) & Fiji (+12000)

Teams to Avoid: South Africa (+450) & Wales (+3000)

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the spreads, totals and betting percentages for Rugby World Cup 2023 and other sports leagues from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.