2021 American League Playoff Betting Preview

American League Playoff Predictions

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn offers his American League Playoff betting preview, which includes thoughts on Tuesday night’s AL Wild Card showdown between the Red Sox and Yankees; the Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox series; and why he thinks the Tampa Bay Rays will eventually lift the trophy.

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American League Playoff Odds

Odds below, courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday, October 4:

• Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game: Yankees (-120) at Red Sox (+110) with the total at 8 runs.
• The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays are co-favorites to win the American League pennant at +275.
• The Houston Astros have opened as -135 favorites over the Chicago White Sox in their ALDS series.

Red Sox vs Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are set for first pitch in the 2021 World Series tournament on Tuesday. The American League Wild Card Game wasn’t officially decided until late Sunday when both the Yankees and Red Sox victories went final.

The Yankees have a significant advantage in a seven-game series over the Red Sox because of New York’s deeper and more talented bullpen. In a one-game win- or go- home crying contest, what favors one franchise over and above another due to a specific variable means much less in a one-game winner advances scenario.

The Red Sox have scheduled starter Nathan Eovaldi to start Tuesday night’s Wild Card Game at Fenway. In 32 starts this season, he compiled a 3.75 ERA (126 ERA+) and a 5.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Right-hander Gerrit Cole won 16 games in his 29 starts and owns a 3.23 earned run average and 1.06 WHIP. In 181.1 innings of work, this season Cole struck out 243.

I can’t recommend either A.L. East wild card contestant to advance past this Tuesday’s wild-card game at Fenway.

Finn Factor AL Wild Card winner: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees -120

⚾Yankees. Red Sox. Playoffs. Should be a good one at Fenway tonight. @teddy_covers offers his thoughts on tonight’s AL Wild Card showdown.#SquadUp | #DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/vufnttgsBI

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 5, 2021

Tampa Bay Rays Outlook

ALDS No. 1 seed Tampa Bay Rays vs. A.L. Wild Card New York Yankees

The Tampa Bay Rays won 100 games; a feat never accomplished in the history of the franchise. Trade deadline acquisition Nelson Cruz went 4-for-5 with two home runs, three runs scored, and four RBI in a matchup between the two A.L. East rivals in early September. With that offensive showing, Cruz meandered his way past Babe Ruth in Fenway history. Cruz now owns a Green Monster OPS of 1.025, which tops Ruth’s 1.024.

Throw in the Tampa leftovers, a second consecutive A.L. East title, and the ownership of the season series edge vs. the Red Sox and the Yankees. If you believe history does repeat itself, then Tampa Bay is not just the favorite versus one of its brethren, the winner of the A.L. wild-card and member of the Eastern Division, the Rays win the Division Series before hosting either the Astros or the Pale Sox.

Finn Factor ALDS winner: Tampa Bay Rays in four games

Astros vs White Sox Preview

The Chicago White Sox will head to Houston for the first two games of their American League Division Series against the Astros, who clinched the No. 2 seed with a 10-4 home victory against the Oakland Athletics on Saturday.

The Junior Circuit Central Division champion White Sox are the No. 3 seed and square off in a Divisional Series against the Astros, who clinched the A.L. West earlier last week and are the No. 2 seed.

Games 1 and 2 of the Sox-Astros ALDS are slated for first pitch at 3:07 pm Thursday and 1:07 pm Friday, respectfully, at Minute Maid Park. Game 3 of the best-of-five series is slated for an evening tilt Sunday at Guaranteed Rate Field, and Game 4, if necessary, would be next Monday at Guaranteed Rate. If the series goes five games, a Wednesday deciding Game 5 would be played in Houston.

I won’t make any divine prophases about LaRussa, not today. However, it has become evident that Tony can’t sing like Bennett, lacks the gridiron knowledge to replace Romo on Monday Night Football, and never had the skill-set to hang five on a four-wheeled board like Hawk. The job opportunities for Chicago Tony to continue to use in building his legacy were limited. Thus taking on the task of managing the Chicago White Sox to a postseason berth and ultimately a world championship wasn’t necessarily a good fit but the only fit.

I do believe that Tony (fill in the blank) will have a 15-minute meltdown moment that offers evidence that holding the title of skipper in Major League Baseball across a 162 game regular season is too much for any man going on 80 to undertake. What the Southside skipper trips on in the Divisional Series is: Wait on it … wait on it … because ready or not, here it comes.

Finn Factor ALDS winner: Houston in five games

Props to our power-hitting lineup for a fantastic #MLB regular season. Check out our discounted playoff special⬇️
⚾Gianni @Greek_Gambler +128.9%
⚾Andy @BumpSports +49.4%
⚾Dave @davecokin +45.9%
⚾Marco @MarcoInVegas +45.2%
⚾Ralph @CalSportsLV +44.0%
➡️https://t.co/JnBFe2Ylsj pic.twitter.com/9YnM5G7Hj7

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 4, 2021

Potential ALCS Preview

If I believed with all that I know concerning the health of the Chicago White Sox combined with a doctor’s note from skipper Tony LaRussa’s primary care physician that a blood test revealed the White Sox manager is taking his memory meds, then I would pause and consider the White Sox.

After all, the Pale Sox lineup has the power; the pitching staff has a group of quality options. Know that the pause I mentioned before supporting the White Sox above would be for just a second, maybe two, before remembering that the Rays are the best team in the American League.

The Astros won five of seven against the White Sox in the regular season, including all four games at Minute Maid Park, so earning the home-field advantage for the ALDS was important for the Astros. It was also important in my decision to stay with the Rays to represent the A.L. in the World Series.

I spoke and wrote that Houston was the most balanced team in the American League. They improved their bullpen at the trade deadline, but they never hit any form of Katie Bar the Door run after the All-Star break.

The Astros’ final road trip of the season was a microcosm of who this team was in the last two months. Houston issued Oakland the broom, and the A’s players put it to work. Mark Canha crushed a pitch from Ryan Pressly for a 4-3 walk-off dinger. It wasn’t just a game-winning solo shot to ceremoniously send both teams to the clubhouse showers. The long ball was a bases-loaded home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Houston’s fourth consecutive loss was a game they would stew in on their flight home for the season-ending pair of series vs. Tampa Bay and Oakland at Minute Maid.

The Astros were a pedestrian 21-19 in one-run games this season. Houston scored a mere eight runs during the four-game losing streak outlined in the previous paragraph before catching their flight to Houston for a pair of series that will end the regular season. In that four-game slide against the L.A. Angels and Oakland A’s, the team batted .160 with 15 walks and 35 strikeouts. Houston’s staff ERA was 6.34, including 10.38 by the bullpen, which blew two saves in that four-game span.

The Rays were the best team in baseball against teams with winning percentages better than .501. After a slow start at the plate, a lineup that was dismal against left-handed pitching, the Rays finished second in baseball averaging 5.29 runs per game. The Dodgers check in with a 5.12 RPG rate entering postseason play. Tampa’s 26-man roster for the postseason will have a player who has appeared in at least 60 games. And the Rays roster a crazy-good 11 hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or better.

In conclusion, the Tampa bullpen is not just the best, but the rung of pitchers on the backend of the rotation is as good if not better than most casual fans understand. Give me Andrew Kittredge (1.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), Pete Fairbanks (3.48 ERA), Collin McHugh (1.40 ERA), Drew Rasmussen (3.09 ERA), and the others.

The others beginning with Ryan Thompson (2.38 ERA/injured list), Matt Wisler (1.98 ERA/injured list), and closing with J.P. Feyereisen (2.42 ERA/injured list).

Finn Factor ALCS winner: Tampa Bay Rays in six

MLB First Pitch

In this episode of WagerTalk’s First Pitch, our panel of professional bettors preview Tuesday’s American League Playoff showdown between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Yankees have opened as small road favorites in Boston, with the total sitting at 8 runs. Join Drew Martin, Dave Cokin and Steve Merril for First Pitch as we preview tonight’s MLB playoff clash from a betting perspective.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the American League playoff moneylines, runlines, team totals, first five lines and so much more from your desktop or phone.

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