Free MLB Picks Today – 5 MLB Games Predictions for 7/18/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, July 18

Brewers at Phillies Prediction

BREWERS (+175) at PHILLIES (-210), 6:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9.5

 After walking off the Padres on Sunday to win a series of last season’s NLCS rematch 3-1, which included sweeping a doubleheader, Philadelphia looks to maintain its momentum after going 23-9 before the All-Star break to get back into the thick of the Wild Card race. Ace Aaron Nola (8-6, 4.39 ERA) gets the ball after falling to Miami in his last start, surrendering a season-worst three home runs for the second time this season. He’s struck out 18 and walked only one batter in two starts this month, so he has pitched pretty well outside of a few mistakes. Over his career, Nola is 5-1 in 10 starts against Milwaukee with a 2.28 ERA, which is highest winning percentage (.833) against opponents where he’s registered at least five decisions. He didn’t give up a run in 15 innings against the Crew last season. Most current Brewers have struggled against Nola, although Christian Yelich has gone 10-for-30 with a home run.

Milwaukee grabbed the NL Central lead by sweeping the Reds over the weekend and is 10 games over .500 for the first time this season. Despite a team batting average of just .232, the Brewers find themselves in great shape with 68 games remaining, although their remaining July schedule is incredibly tough. Julio Teheran (2-3, 3.64) has a WHIP of 1.01 and has really helped bail out the Crew in helping overcome injuries to would-be starters Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby while resuscitating his career. However, Teheran has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 13 runs in 11.2 innings. The Colombian veteran righty has been lit up by Bryce Harper (19-for-47, 9 HR, 21 RBI), Trea Turner (10-for-25, 1 HR)and Kyle Schwarber (5-for-12, 1 HR) throughout his career, which doesn’t bode well for Milwaukee in this series opener.

THE PLAY – Phillies Player Prop Pick: 

Harper is on a 5-game hitting streak, hitting7-for-14 in that span with three doubles and a home run. He’s been locked in and has owned Teheran, so take your pick and back the over on Harper’s hits + runs + RBI prop or total bases prop.

Padres at Blue Jays Prediction

PADRES (-110) at BLUE JAYS (-110), 7:07 p.m. ET, Total: 9
 Along with AL East counterparts Baltimore and Boston, Toronto is among baseball’s hottest teams with wins in eight of 10. The run has the Jays on the right side of the Wild Card chase, but realistically, postseason hopes hinge on former ace Alek Manoah (2-7, 5.91) getting right. After getting sent down to A-ball to work on mechanics for a month, Manoah allowed just one run in six innings against Detroit, striking out eight and walking none. If he can return to his 2022 form, that’s a game-changer. The big names in the Padres lineup will test him. Manoah is 0-4 with an 8.68 ERA at home, so fans aren’t likely to be patient if he struggles early.
San Diego has been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments and needs to get going sooner than later to avoid seeing its season slip away. Joe Musgrove (8-2, 3.29) is 3-1 on the road this season and has fared well in interleague matchups. He’s 6-0 since the beginning of June and has an 0.69 ERA in two starts this month. Musgrove has only given up more than two earned once in his last nine starts, making him one of baseball’s hottest pitchers.

THE PLAY – Padres at Blue Jays Prediction F5 Bet: 

I’d keep the bullpens out of this, but since Musgrove has been lights out and Manoah still has a lot to prove, a first-five moneyline wager on the Padres is advisable.

White Sox at Mets Prediction

WHITE SOX (+100) at METS (-120), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9
 This looks like a live ‘dog situation given the pitching matchup. After slumping through mediocrity over the first two months, Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.45) has settled in and looked like his usual self since June began, giving up two or fewer earned runs in six of seven outings. He’s struck out 48 while walking just 13 batters since June began, lowering his ERA by over a half-run. The one caveat to riding Giolito in Queens is that his home/road splits are drastic, with him sporting a 2.44 ERA and .188 opponents’ batting average in Chicago and a much uglier 4.71 ERA and .264 OBA on the road. Current Mets are hitting a collective .218 against him, although Francisco Lindor (6-for-18) has fared well and owns half of the team’s hits against the Sox ace.
The disappointing Mets are right there with the Padres at the top of the list of teams that must have a great second half. They snapped a four-game losing streak by avoiding a sweep at home with a 2-1 win over the Dodgers on Sunday. Carlos Carrasco (3-3, 5.16) has had an injury-riddled season but has New York cautiously optimistic that he’s turned the corner since he’s coming off his best start, blanking Arizona on three hits over eight innings in Phoenix on July 6. “Cookie” Carrasco hadn’t worked more than five innings since May 31 and still has a home ERA of 7.23, so this is a massive game for him. Only four White Sox have ever faced the 36-year-old Venezuelan righty, but Tim Anderson, Elvis Andrus, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Benintendi are a combined 23-for-67 (.343) against Carrasco, slugging .567 with three homers and sporting a .929 OPS. All four should be in Tuesday night’s lineup.

THE PLAY – White Sox at Mets Prediction F5 Bet: 

Carrasco may certainly be on the upswing, but betting the Sox in the first five innings given Giolito’s form seems like a best bet. Taking the bullpens out of is ideal. Ride the F5 moneyline with Chicago.

Diamondbacks at Braves Prediction

DIAMONDBACKS (+170) at BRAVES (-200), 7:20 p.m. ET, Total: 10
Atlanta lost its first series coming out of the break. It was the first time it had dropped one of those since May 29-31. Bryce Elder (7-2, 2.97) will look to prevent the Braves from losing three straight games for the first time since May 12-14. The 2023 All-Star is coming off his worst start of the season, pitching just 3.1 innings and giving up seven runs, walking four while striking out none. He wasn’t called on to work in Seattle, so Atlanta’s ERA leader should be well-rested in this bounce-back spot. Atlanta won two of three when these teams played in Phoenix in early June but Elder didn’t pitch. Eddie Rosario stole the show in that series, hitting three homers, driving in seven and finishing 6-for-13 over the three games, winning the finale on a grand slam with two outs in the top of the ninth. His status for this game is unknown since he was removed from Sunday’s loss to the White Sox due to hamstring tightness.
The Diamondbacks are a heavy underdog in part because Zach Davies (1-5, 6.37) takes the bump first. He also didn’t pitch when these teams met in June but Arizona has lost six consecutive times when he’s gone out there. Davies has been hit hard in most of those setbacks and hasn’t won since June 7. He missed seven weeks with an oblique injury, so the veteran may ultimately find his form in the season’s second half, but right now, he’s pitching through it. Of all Braves, Marcell Ozuna has feasted on Davies most, going 10-for-26 against him with a pair of doubles.

THE PLAY – Braves Player Prop Pick: 

He’s not the biggest name on the Braves, so there’s value in backing the over on Ozuna’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

Rays at Rangers Prediction

RAYS (+120) at RANGERS (-140), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5-9
These AL division leaders squared off on Monday to open the series. Texas rallied from a 2-0 deficit after five innings thanks to a 2-run homer from Ezequiel Duran and a wild pitch bringing home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. The Rays are now an underdog in the second game of the series and in jeopardy of losing three straight games since their rookie starter Taj Bradley (5-5, 5.43) has been hit hard after a strong start. He’s got good poise an excellent fastball but teams have figured out his repertoire lately and have scored four or more runs against him in three straight games.
All-Star Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 2.83) gets the ball for Texas and has been a driving force on the mound for a team that lost Jacob deGrom in exasperating fashion early in the season. Eovaldi pitched a scoreless inning despite giving up two hits in the All-Star Game and struggled in Boston in a 10-6 loss on July 6. He’s been great most of the season but has surrendered three or more runs in four of his last six starts after giving up three or more in just four of his first dozen outings. Current Rays are hitting just .224 against him over the course of their careers.

THE PLAY – Rays at Rangers Total Bet: 

Bradley gave up five runs (four earned) when he first ran into the Rangers on June 10, while Eovaldi was touched up for four runs in 6.1 innings in an 8-4 win in that same game. Ride the full-gameover between these AL Division leaders.

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