Leagues Cup Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – Round One Best Bets

Leagues Cup Betting Advice

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Leagues Cup predictions and picks around key round one matches including Inter Miami vs Cruz Azul and FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City.

Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read Nick’s betting preview now!

Leagues Cup Expert Predictions

The Leagues Cup is a new competition the pits every MLS and Liga MX team, 47 of them to be exact, into a World Cup-style tournament.

Fifteen groups of three teams will play matches against one another with the top-2 teams in each group moving on the knockout rounds where they will be joined be Los Angeles FC and UANL Tigres, the two most recent champions of each league who automatically progress to the knockout stage.

Both leagues will take an unprecedented month-long break in the middle of their seasons for this competition.

I fully expect all teams to take this tournament seriously as it’s their only match reps available to them during this time, and with all teams competing, there is no real advantage to any team when returning to league play, except maybe against those that make a deep run.

Inter Miami vs Cruz Azul | 7/21/23 | 8:00pm ET

Miami +115 | Draw +250 | Cruz Azul +210
Asian Handicap: Miami -0.25 | Total: 2.5

The biggest story, even bigger than this competition itself, is the expected debut of the greatest footballer we have ever seen. Nothing is official until lineups come out, but this is the match Miami has been expecting to debut Lionel Messi.

We don’t know if that means he will be in the starting XI or playing in a substitute role, but have no doubt, the anticipation for this match in South Beach is real.

Then of course there is Messi’s old Barcelona teammate Sergio Busquets who will also be available for this match as both team-up with former manager Tata Martino.

While there are certainly high expectations for this team going forward, it’s a lot to ask for those expectations to hit home immediately.

There is also no doubt that this line in public-inflated due to Messi likely making his debut. But it’s going to take some reps for Messi and company to gel together and I believe that’s what this tournament will allow for.

Messi aside, Miami has been dreadful this season. They have just five wins from 22 matches and are winless in their last 11 scoring a total of only ten goals while allowing 24.

Expected goal data is ugly also as Miami is averaging 0.95 xG while allowing 1.56 xGA which increases to 1.81 over those last 11. Miami has the fewest points in the league and the most losses with 14.

Cruz Azul is off to an 0-3 start to the Apertura season and while they are far from the cream of the crop of Liga MX, they aren’t the worst team in the league either. Combining the Clausura and Apertura seasons last year, Cruz Azul hauled in 48 points which ranked 9th in the league of 18 teams. They had a goal differential of -9 but xG showed a team closer to even at -2.4 xG.

What I like about Cruz Azul is that even though they aren’t a great side, they find a way to get on the scoresheet, even on the road.

Over their last 13 away, Cruz Azul have scored in all but three matches. With the way Miami isn’t scoring right now, one goal could be more than enough to grab at least a draw from this match and cash half our ticket.

Prediction: Cruz Azul +0.25 -120 DraftKings

CF Montreal vs UNAM Pumas | 7/22/23 | 7:30pm ET

CF Montreal +110 | Draw +240 | UNAM +225
Asian Handicap: Montreal -0.25 | Total: 2.5

We cashed on Montreal last week and I’ll go back to them this week, though on a Totals play.
Montreal has been a confusing team this season. One win and six losses to start the season.

Then they win seven of their next 11 matches with all seven wins coming with a clean sheet. The follow that up by going winless in their last four matches and without scoring a single goal until their 2-0 win over Charlotte last weekend.

All of Montreal’s success has come at home this season. They did lose back-to-back home matches by same 0-1 scoreline to Atlanta and NYCFC before beating Charlotte, but that snapped a run of six straight clean sheet wins. Their defense has been excellent at Saputo Stadium allowing only five goals in ten matches.

Pumas is not a strong defensive team. Last Clausura season combined with three matches so far this Apertura season has seen them allow 1.59 xGA per match, but Montreal is simply not a team that is likely to take advantage of that. They have been performing better of late though as they held their opponent to one goal in five of their last seven away matches.

The thing I do like about Pumas when considering the Under in this match is that they are not a strong offensive team either, especially away from home. Over their last 11 away matches they have been held scoreless four times while they have scored more than one goal just three times while averaging only 1.19 xG per match.

Montreal has proven they are a very good home team and I think also present decent value to win this match, but their defense has been so good allowing only 0.95 xGA at home, I just don’t see Pumas creating many chances on the road. Montreal is a long way from Mexico…

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -120 DraftKings

FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City | 7/23/23 | 7:30pm ET

Cincinnati -110 | Draw +255 | Kansas City +270
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 2.75

If FC Cincinnati carries over their form from league play, they have a very good shot at winning this competition. They sit atop the Eastern Conference with a whopping 51 points from 23 matches and they have been nearly perfect at home going 11-1-0 with a 24:8 goal differential. They are coming off a great win over a very good Nashville team winning 3-1 at home last weekend.

FC Cincinnati averages 1.63 xG per match at home, which surprisingly only ranks 10th in the league, but they have been great at converting their chances as they are scoring 2.0 goals per match.

They have been even better defensively allowing an average of just 0.87 xGA which ranks 5th in the league and once again have been outpacing that as they are only allowing an average of 0.67 actual goals.

Against the spread, FC Cincinnati is the best team in the MLS by a wide margin with a ridiculously profitable 17-3-3 record ATS including going 9-1-2 in the favorite role.

SKC set an MLS record to begin the season as they earned only three points through their first ten matches of the season, a new low for the league. However, they have played much better since with only four losses over their last 15 matches.

Their road record is why I feel very confident in fading them in this match though with just one win in 13 away this year as they own a -0.52 xG differential per match, averaging 1.00 xG while allowing 1.52. Only twice did they create more xG on the road than their opponent.

FC Cincinnati is so far ahead in the Eastern Conference that they can afford to go all in trying to win this tournament and I believe they will come out with a big win in this first match.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati Moneyline (or -0.5) -110 DraftKings