3M Open Predictions, Free Picks and Odds July 27-30
3M Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the 3M Open teeing off from TPC Twin Cities just outside of Minneapolis, Minnesota. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the 3M Open starting July 27!
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| 3M Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 27-30 |
| Where: | TPC Twin Cities outside Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Defending Champ: | Tony Finau |
| Current Favorite: | Cameron Young (+1400 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel & CBS |
3M Open Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)
The Course & Field – TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
From Nick Borrman:
As quickly as the major season came, it has now moved on as the TOUR turns the final corner with the Playoffs looming in just two weeks’ time. These next two tournaments, beginning this week in Minnesota, represent the player’s final chance to earn points and make the Top-70 which is the cutoff for this year’s playoffs.
With most of the big names absent this week following The Open Championship, this is a rather weak field event as only eight of the world’s Top-40 are in attendance. That should allow for quite a few names to contend and possibly lift the title as we have seen at this event in the past. Tony Finau won as the favorite last year, but in only its 5th edition as a tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule, longshots of over 100-1 odds had won each of the three previous editions, so don’t be afraid to venture down the oddsboard this week.
TPC Twin Cities plays as a par 71 and measures over 7,400 yards. Water is in play on 15 of 18 holes, so although the course plays easy in the sense that the winning score will likely push toward 20-under par, players must be careful to avoid the lakes. Distance off the tee will likely be an important factor as three of the four winners here can be classified as bombers in Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau. Rough could also be penalizing as it reaches heights of 4”. Greens are rather large at an average of over 6,500 square feet and will push 13 on the stimpmeter, much different than we saw last week at Royal Liverpool.
The most notable hole here is the par 5 finishing hole. It played as the most difficult par 5 on TOUR last year, one of only three par 5s that averaged over par for the entirety of a tournament. You can bet on that hole having a big impact on the winner of this tournament come Sunday.
As always, I’ll wrap with the weather, but there isn’t much to report on. Wind will not be a factor and there is only a slight chance of a shower this week as high pressure engulfs much of the Midwest. The tournament will kick off in some heat as highs reach the mid 90s on Thursday before cooling to the mid 80s by the weekend.
3M Open Predictions
The field is mixed with those that played at The Open Championship and those that didn’t. Even further, those that contended for four days versus those that didn’t make the weekend at Royal Liverpool. While the short turnaround could be a factor this week, just make sure you aren’t putting all your eggs into any one basket of those different scenarios.
3M Open Outright Winner
Sepp Straka +2800 (BetMGM)
Hard not to want to get some money on the guy who finished 1st and T2 in his last two starts. Straka won the John Deere Classic three weeks ago and followed that up by finishing joint runner-up last week at The Open Championship. Straka gained nearly 9.0 strokes on approach last week and was able to convert putts along the way gaining over 3.5 strokes putting as well.
That combination has proven to be the winning one for Straka who gained 2.8 strokes on approach at the John Deere Classic but had an even hotter putter at over 6.0 strokes gained putting.
Straka has been great off the tee this year. While he isn’t the longest hitter on TOUR, he still can poke it out there and has a nice combination of both distance and accuracy. He has gained strokes off the tee in nine straight events and when he combines that with either a solid iron game or putting, he contends as he did with a T7 at the PGA Championship and a T16 at the Memorial in two other recent strong finishes. He also had a T5 at The Honda Classic back in February.
The question is whether he will be able to come back to the US and be at his best after the short turnaround from contending at Royal Liverpool. That may end up being just the little piece that keeps him from winning, but I would be surprised if we don’t have a Sunday sweat with Straka this week.
3M Open Leaderboard Finish
Adam Hadwin Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +210 (Bet365)
Hadwin has made several big splashes this season and at an event that he has had similar success at before, I like him to do it again this week.
Some of Hadwin’s finishes this year include a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he lost to Rickie Fowler in a playoff. He also has six other Top-20 finishes including: T12 RBC Canadian Open, T13 THE PLAYERS, T10 WM Phoenix Open, T18 The American Express, T7 Houston Open and T10 Shriners Children’s Open.
He had ridden hot iron play, putting or both to those strong finishes and in his most recent at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he combined to gain nearly 11.0 SG putting + approach.
Hadwin has also played in this event in three of the four years of its existence, making the cut in all three with close finishes of solo 4th in 2019 and T6 in 2021.
Finally, opposite of Straka, he did not play at all last week and helps to round our portfolio to include guys that will be 100% fresh this week.
3M Open Favorite to Fade
Justin Thomas +2500
This is probably the safest ‘fade’ bet of the top players as Thomas is simply not in good form and there is no doubt in my mind that he wouldn’t be playing this week if he didn’t have to. JT currently sits 75th in the FedexCup standings and this year with only the Top-70 making the first event, he is obviously in need of some points.
The reason Thomas is in this predicament is that it simply hasn’t been a good year for him. In 18 official starts this season, Thomas has just two Top-10 finishes and only two additional Top-20s. Since attempting to defend his PGA Championship in May, he has been particularly poor with only one finish inside the Top-60 in seven starts to go along with four MCs.
You are paying the price on JT this week purely on his name, and while admittedly, this is longer odds than we would normally see for him in a field like this, it still isn’t in the ballpark of what I want to pay on a guy who is in poor form.
3M Betting Preview From WagerTalk Extra!
Tune in later as Nick Borrman and Andy Lang collaborate on WagerTalk Extra to give their individual 3M Open betting predictions and picks before this event tees off on Thursday. Get their outright winner plays, golfers to fade and even DFS options to take advantage of.
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