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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Monday, July 31

Orioles at Blue Jays Prediction

ORIOLES (+125) at BLUE JAYS (-145), 7:07 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Taking two of three from the Yankees over the weekend helped Baltimore improve the AL’s best record to 64-41, increasing their lead in baseball’s toughest division to 1.5 games.

Another AL East side is up is next as the Orioles visit third-place Toronto and find themselves as an underdog in the first of a four-game set before they return to Camden Yards for series against the Mets and Astros.

The Blue Jays failed to sweep the Angels on Sunday, suffering a 3-2 loss in 10 innings. They’ll continue a seven-game homestand looking to trim a 5.5-game deficit in the AL East behind Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91 ERA), who is 5-1 over his last six decisions since June began.

Toronto Is 7-4 in his starts within that span and Bassitt has allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts, completing six innings in four of those outings.

Despite that success, it’s worth knowing that Bassitt’s last loss came in Baltimore on June 13, where he was roughed up for eight runs on 11 hits over three innings, giving up home runs to Adam Frazier, Ryan O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson in an 11-6 loss. The Orioles are 5-1 against Toronto this season.

Current Orioles are batting .371 (13-for-35) against Bassitt with those aforementioned three home runs. Henderson and Adley Rutschman have each gone 2-for-3 against him.

Veteran Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68) dominated Toronto in the first series between these teams up at Rodgers Centre back on May 19, allowing a single run on five hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win. Gibson struggled some from late June to mid-July but has put together a pair of quality starts in his last two outings.

The veteran is 6-2 over his career against the Jays over 12 career starts (4.46 ERA, 3-1 in Toronto). Current Blue Jays are batting .272 against Gibson, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4-for-9) and Danny Jansen (6-for-10) boasting eye-popping numbers. Matt Chapman (2-for-18) and George Springer (3-for-19) have struggled.

THE PLAY – Blue Jays Player Prop Pick

This is a big series, and I think we’ll see Vladdy Jr. step up and set a tone. He’s hit five home runs in July and has hit safely in six of his last eight games, including going 2-for-4 in Sunday’s loss to L.A. Given his solid history against Gibson, I like the over on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s hits + runs + RBIs.

Reds at Cubs Prediction

REDS (+105) at CUBS (-125), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8

A huge series in the NL Central begins at Wrigley Field as the surging Cubs look to slice into a four-game deficit in the division against the first-place Reds, which took a half-game lead over the Brewers thanks to Sunday’s 9-0 blowout of the Dodgers coupled with a Brewers loss in Atlanta.

All three contenders could make moves prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline to strengthen their squads, and Chicago made news on Sunday in announcing that it would not move Cody Bellinger, essentially signaling that the team is in it to win it.

No team is hotter than the Cubs, who have won eight of their last nine games despite having their lengthy hitting streak snapped in Sunday’s 3-0 loss in St. Louis, which prevented them from a third straight series sweep.

They’re opening a seven-game homestand on Monday in which they’ll host the Reds for four games and the Braves for three more, so this is a crucial week as they look to continue a strong run. Ace Marcus Stroman (10-7, 3.51) takes the ball against Cincinnati, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.

Stroman has had a dreadful July (7.99 ERA), pitching as well as he has for most of the season only once in his five starts. He’s seeing the Reds for the first time this season and has dominated current members of their lineup, who are collectively 6-for-32 (.188).

However, he hasn’t seen young batters like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain or Spencer Steer, who have emerged as key catalysts. Stroman has been sharper at Wrigley than on the road, holding opponents to a .183 batting average.

He’ll be opposed by rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (6-2, 1.90), who has surrendered more than three runs in only one of his 10 big league starts, four of which have come against the Brewers.

Abbott comes in with a streak of 16 consecutive scoreless innings and will be seeing the Cubs for the first time. He’s got a WHIP of 0.96 and is 4-1 on the road so far.

THE PLAY – Reds at Cubs F5 Bet

Stroman should have an edge against most Cincy hitters who will be seeing him for the first time and has been much better at home than on the road, offering up a window for him to improve on his recent form. Abbott has been lights out and should settle in well against a Cubs lineup that is fairly mediocre against left-handed pitching. Ride the first-five under on 4.5 runs in what could wind up being a pitcher’s duel.

Guardians at Astros Prediction

GUARDIANS (+160) at ASTROS (-190), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Both of these teams enter the week in second place, either a half-game or full game behind the teams they’re chasing in their respective AL divisions.

Cleveland opened its current seven-game road trip with a four-game split in Chicago by beating the White Sox 5-0 on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid. Houston, despite a 17-3 rout of the Rays on Saturday night, dropped two of three over the weekend and is just 3-3 on their current homestand, which culminates with this series.

The Astros are a heavy favorite against a team that they dropped two of three against when the teams played at Progressive Field from June 9-11. Both are 6-4 over their last 10 games.

Noah Syndergaard (1-4, 7.16) makes his Guardians debut against rookie J.P. France (6-3, 2.87) in a series opener in which the host Astros are heavily favored.

Syndergaard was acquired last Wednesday in exchange for SS Amed Rosario in the hopes that he can rediscover his previous form to aid a rotation that has been besieged by injuries. He was in the minor leagues working on a rehab assignment after a blister issue and hasn’t pitched in the bigs June 7.

The veteran is 1-0 over two career starts against the Astros, but has never worked inside Minute Maid Park. France has been brilliant since June began, allowing three or fewer runs in nine straight starts and working at least six innings in eight of those, racking up the quality starts.

That includes a working 6.2 frames in a 6-4 win in Cleveland on June 10 in which he struck out six hitters and threw a season-high 105 pitches. Jose Ramirez went 2-for-4 against France but no Guardians batter managed an extra-base hit in that first meeting.

THE PLAY – Guardians Player Prop Pick

While there are a lot of variables in the mix regarding Syndergaard, the visitors have a fighting chance because I see their star stepping up and delivering in this matchup. Ramirez hit a pair of home runs against the White Sox on Sunday and has hit safely in five of six games, getting hot at the right time. Ride Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

Padres at Rockies Prediction

PADRES (-210) at ROCKIES (+175), 8:40 p.m. ET, Total: 11.5

The Padres have to start making their Wild Card push immediately, so sweeping the Rangers over the weekend was a fantastic development, especially since it followed up a disappointing series against Pittsburgh.

The Dodgers come into San Diego for four games this weekend, but a trip to Denver is up next for the Padres, so it’s important they not look ahead and take care of business here.

The Rockies just lost two of three to the A’s in a battle of the two worst teams in their respective leagues. Colorado avoided a sweep with a 2-0 win on Sunday, utilizing its bullpen extensively, which could hurt them here.

Lefty Austin Gomber (8-8, 5.83) gets the ball and has been exceptionally sharp over his last six starts,, surrendering two or fewer earned runs in five of those outings. Given the fact his ERA stood at 7.25 before this current run, Gomber’s 180 has come out of nowhere.

This will be his third start against the Padres, who have defeated him twice. He’s got a 9.00 ERA over 10 innings against San Diego, whose hitters are batting .333 against the left-hander.

We’ll see how they fare against the new and improved version, but catalyst Ha-Seong Kim (6-for-12, 5 doubles) potentially missing Monday’s game after suffering a jammed shoulder on Sunday would be a tough break.

Seth Lugo (4-5, 3.62) has been decent for the Padres but is still one of the weaker links in the Padres’ rotation, although he did match a season-high in pitching seven innings last time out against the Pirates in a game he lost due to a lack of run support.

Originally, his longest outing came against the Rockies, who he defeated 3-1 on April 2, surrendering a single run on four hits over seven frames. Current Colorado hitters are a combined 3-for-27 (.111) against Lugo, with catcher Elias Diaz managing two of the hits. San Diego is 4-3 against Colorado this season.

THE PLAY – Padres Player Prop Pick

Kim’s potential absence throws a wrench into things for San Diego, so keep an eye out for the visiting lineup to be unveiled, but there is another player we’re expecting to see thrive. Xander Bogaerts, who is 3-for-6 with a homer against Gomber, has hit safely in 10 of 11 games, raising his batting average to .265. Ride Xander Bogaerts to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

Red Sox at Mariners Prediction

RED SOX (+115) at MARINERS (-135), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 8

These teams are on the outside looking in the AL Wild Card picture at the moment but are separated by just two games and well within striking distance of the Astros and Blue Jays, currently the two teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

That makes this a humongous series in the Pacific Northwest, as the Red Sox continue a road trip that opened with a 1-2 showing in San Francisco. All three games were decided by a single run, so Boston’s bullpen may be taxed as the team hits Seattle.

That makes it vital that Nick Pivetta (7-5, 4.11) give them a few more innings than he’s been able to in recent starts, although he’s been in excellent form in July, sporting a 1.29 ERA and 33:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio this month.

He’s been coming out of the bullpen or operating as the bulk guy behind an opener exclusively since beating the Mariners 9-4 on May 16, so him getting the start gives you a glimpse as to where Joey Cora feels his bullpen is.

Boston won two of three against the M’s back in mid-May, winning the last two games by a combined margin of 21-7. Current Seattle hitters are just 14-for-60 against Pivetta, with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and star Julio Rodriguez coming in a combined 5-for-32 (.156).

All-Star George Kirby (9-8, 3.49) is looking to bounce back from a rough start against the Twins on July 25, who got to him for five runs on nine hits over four frames.

Kirby also struggled in his first start coming out of the break in getting roughed up by Detroit but had rebounded against Minnesota by pitching seven scoreless frames and striking out 10 batters in a masterful effort, so he’s been all over the place this month.

This will be an important start for him, and he’ll be looking to replicate his success from May 15, when he helped beat Boston 10-1 by pitching into the seventh inning, striking out six and allowing a single run.

Rafael Devers (4-for-8, 1 HR, 1 double) has been a thorn in Kirby’s side, while Alex Verdugo (3-for-9) has had success against him. All other Boston hitters are a combined 3-for-15 against Kirby, who is a solid 6-3 in Seattle.

THE PLAY – Red Sox at Mariners F5 ML Pick

Pivetta hasn’t started a game in a while, so there may be an adjustment in play for him, particularly on the road. Kirby should bounce back from getting roughed up by the Twins, so ride Seattle (-130) on the first-five money line to hold a lead entering the sixth, which also covers us with a push if the teams are tied.

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