UFC Fight Night Vegas: Luque vs Dos Anjos Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 12

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night Vegas predictions and picks for August 12 with Rafael Dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Rafael Dos Anjos vs Vicente Luque: UFC Fight Night Vegas Main Event

Saturday, August 12	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Rafael Dos Anjos -120 vs Vicente Luque +100
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over +115 / Under -145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Martin Buday -210 v Josh Parisian +170

This is one of those fights that bettors should just stay away from as Buday should win, but -210 in a fight like this is too steep.

Buday should be better on the feet with the crisper striking and better movement, but in his last fight against Jake Collier he was pushed up against the fence a big, and at the end of round one, was on the ground with Collier on top.

That being said, he’s good in the clinch with knees and uppercuts, and against Josh Parisian it should be enough to win.

Parisian is slow with his strikes, and we saw in his last fight against Jamal Pogues that he can be taken down and controlled. Buday is 12-1 while Parisian is 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents. I won’t be betting on this fight, but Buday should win.

Luana Santos -140 v Juliana Miller +115

Juliana Miller won her UFC debut against Brogan Walker, but that win is not impressive based on how bad Walker is. In her next fight, she got absolutely dominated by Veronica Hardy who was 1-4 in the UFC.

Miller is too raw for this level and she has absolutely no striking game, and we saw a more athletic Hardy control her the entire fight.

Santos is making her UFC debut and is the rightful favorite as her striking is much better than Miller’s, and Santos has a judo background and she showed two fights ago she can take an opponent down and keep her there for the duration of rounds.

Miller would have to have an immense level of improvement to win here and I don’t see it. Santos at -140 seems like a bargain price to me.

Marcus McGhee -400 v JP Buys

McGhee comes in as a big favorite here, and I don’t mind taking him as a parlay piece. McGhee got the call-up from LFA and got the round two submission against Journey Newson in his debut and he showed solid striking offense, a great pace, good pressure and a great overall skill set.

I don’t see him going far in the UFC, but he should have success against guys like Newson and Buys. Buys is 0-3 in the UFC and this is probably his last fight if/when he loses.

Buys is weak on the feet with striking and defense and in his last fight, Cody Durden absolutely ran through him in one minute.

McGhee’s pressure will certainly overwhelm Buys and my guess is McGhee gets the finish before it goes to the judges. Buys just doesn’t have the skill to fight in the UFC, I see no path to victory for him, and I expect this to be the last time we see him in the UFC.

Francis Marshall -200 v Isaac Dulgarian +160

I bet on Marshall in his last fight against Gomis where he lost a split decision, but Marshall almost got the finish on the ground when he finally committed to wrestling Gomis.

He looked very tentative in the first round, and it cost him. I still love his skill set as he has power in his strikes when he decides to let loose, and he can take opponents down and finish like he almost did against Gomis. Dulgarian is coming in from the FAC, and he comes full speed ahead the second the fight starts.

All five of his fights have ended before the three-minute mark, but Marshall is a massive step up in competition.

We’ve never seen the cardio of Dulgarian, and if he starts as fast as he normally does and he doesn’t get the finish early, Marshall will wear him down and get the finish eventually in rounds two or three.

I like Marshall to win, but his being tentative last fight makes me nervous, but he may not have time to be tentative as Dulgarian will probably rush him from the start. Wait until props come out and take this fight to avoid going the distance, and maybe parlay it with McGhee.

Jaqueline Amorim -275 v Montserrat Ruiz +210

This is a pretty big line on Amorim, and I don’t really understand why. Ruiz lost in 35 seconds to Amanda Lemos’s last fight, but before that beat Cheyanne Villesma with some pretty impressive pressure and energy which resulted in Amorim taking Villesma down several times and winning rounds.

Amorim looks good on the feet, but she lost her debut to Sam Hughes when Hughes took her down and controlled her in rounds two and three.

On the feet, Amorim is more polished, but Ruiz showed she can make a fight dirty and she can win on the ground, and with that being how Hughes beat Amorim there’s no way I would lay -275 on Jacqueline.

I think Ruiz is a live dog here if she gets it to the ground, don’t be surprised if Ruiz wins with her takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three. A sprinkle on the underdog is the only way to bet on this fight.

Josh Fremd -300 v Jamie Pickett +240

This feels like Pickett’s last fight in the UFC as he’s 2-5 in the UFC and on a three-fight losing streak. Fremd lost a tough debut to Fluffy Hernandez and then was beating Tresean Gore in his next fight before Gore pulled one of the most insane guillotine chokes I’ve ever seen, but he rebounded nicely to get the submission win over Sedriques Dumas the next fight.

Fremd will no doubt try to get this fight on the ground where he’ll have a big advantage, and he’ll probably win by submission as Pickett has been submitted by Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus recently.

Pickett will desperately need to keep this on the feet and hope to land a huge strike, but he has no wins by finish in the UFC so that is unlikely. Take Fremd to win, probably inside the distance.

Khalil Rountree -225 v Chris Daukaus +175

Betting against a Daukaus in the UFC has been very profitable, and I’ll do it again here. Chris has lost three in a row, getting finished early in all of them, and don’t be surprised if Rountree makes it four in a row.

Rountree has been inconsistent in his UFC fights, but he’s won three straight, including a close split decision win against Dustin Jacoby last fight.

His striking should be way more powerful and effective and this is another fight on this card where someone has lost three straight and will probably lose their 4th in a row en route to being cut from the UFC. Daukus has no upside, and I expect him to get finished again.

Tafon Nchukwi -140 v AJ Dobson +120

Both guys are coming off two straight losses, and this fight is too close to call for me. Both guys are fairly low volume on the feet and they don’t offer up much upside on the ground so I see this being a close fight on the feet where we could easily be in a split decision situation.

Because they are so low volume I would like some overs in this fight as neither fighter has a finish in the UFC.

This is not a great fight, and it’s certainly not a great fight to bet on so I’ll say dog or pass on this fight, but this fight to start round two certainly has my attention.

Iasmin Lucindo -175 v Polyana Viana +145

Lucindo has looked good in her two fights in the UFC, although in her last fight, she dominated Brogan Walker but didn’t get the finish then we find out they’re best friends so I would expect her to come out much more aggressive unless we find out her and Viana are BFF’s.

Lucindo can be a dynamic striker, and although Viana finished her last fight, I don’t think she can keep up with Lucindo’s striking, and on top of that Lucindo has the takedowns and wrestling in her back pocket.

She has the power advantage, and I think she shows it off here en route to a victory. The price feels about right on this fight so -175 might sound like a lot, but it’s fair.

Hakeem Dawodu -250 v Cub Swanson +200

I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end for Cub Swanson as the 39-year-old is coming off a really bad loss to Jonathan Martinez where Martinez finished him with painful leg kicks.

Before that though, Martinez was winning on the ground and with punches and Swanson just looked a bit old and slow. He’s won three out of his last five fights, but the caliber of competition in those fights is not near what Dawodu is.

Hakeem is a solid technical fighter with good strikes and movement, and although he lost his last fight he had a brutal weight cut, and Julian Erosa fought the best fight of his career in that one.

Dawodu should be a faster and more effective striker as Swanson lunges in way too much on his strikes, and he leaves himself open to counterstrikes. Swanson has a lot of damage on his body, and Dawodu will surely use his leg kicks as Martinez did.

Swanson’s cardio has been getting worse and worse and Hakeem will have the advantage in that department as well.

The first round might be close, but Dawodu will pull away in the second and third if it makes it that far. The price is steep, but it’s a parlay piece I can get behind as Swanson might be singing his Swan Song soon.

UFC Fight Night Nashville Main Event: Rafael Dos Anjos -120 vs Vicente Luque +100

Interesting main event that should be pretty close, and I really think this comes down to can Dos Anjos implement his wrestling game.

If he can close the distance and get Luque into clinch and takedown situations, he should be able to do what Belal Muhammad did to Luque which was avoid Luque’s strikes and then take him down to win rounds.

Geoff Neal used his striking to piece Luque apart on the feet en route to a KO win, but I don’t think Do Anjos has that kind of performance in him.

In his last fight, Dos Anjos got handed a gift in fighting Bryan Barbarena who has no takedown defense or ground which resulted in an easy win, but this will be much tougher.

This is a really hard fight to predict, but I’ll give a slight edge to Luque as I think he’ll be a bit better on the feet which will make takedowns tougher for Dos Anjos the longer the fight goes.

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