Houston Cougars Football Predictions, Best Bets, Wins Total, Expert College Football Handicapper Tips

Houston Cougars Football Betting Predictions 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Houston Cougars’ chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on the Houston Cougars in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Houston Cougars football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Houston Cougars this season.

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Houston Cougars Football Preview 2023: Houston Best Bets, Expert Picks

Dana Holgorsen once coached in the Big 12.  He was 61-41 at West Virginia before curiously leaving for this job. 

Houston itself was once part of the old Southwest Conference.  Welcome back Dana, and welcome back to the Cougars.

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Houston Cougars Football Predictions: Strengths, Weaknesses, Improvements, Declines

QB Tune is gone, taking his nearly 12,000 passing yards with him.  Also gone is their lead RB (transfer) and star WR (NFL). 

There’s still decent talent at RB and WR, and QB Donovan Smith comes over from Texas Tech.  Holgorsen’s offense is user friendly, so I expect only a modest drop, although due to the tougher schedule the rush projection moves down to 4.15 per carry (4.85 in ’22).  OL performance checks seem like a constant theme in the Big 12. 

The newcomers must be vetted out early in the season.  The point defense was rated 111^th, and that includes allowing just 16 points in their bowl win over Louisiana.  Sack production is likely to drop, but I’ll be watching the pass D%, which was far worse in 2022 at over 63%.  Eight of their top nine tacklers are gone. 

The DC has done a credible job here defending the run but 2023 could be a challenge.  Kicking was erratic in ’22.  There’s competition for the job now, but it’s between two inexperienced prospects.

Houston Cougars Football Schedule: Which Games Will They Win?

UTSA is the toughest non-conference foe, and last year’s overtime win was a very exciting game.  That’s the home opener.  An old Southwest Conference rivalry renews when they host TCU 9/16.  How vulnerable is TCU off their fantastic 2022 season? 

Houston and Texas Tech have played four times over the past five seasons, including last year’s 33-30 overtime win for Texas Tech at their place.  The rematch, this time in a conference game is also at their place.  Houston is 21-12 ATS recently off rest. 

On 10/12 they will host West Virginia, Holgorsen’s former team (Thursday Night).  That gives them an extra two days before hosting Texas, who will have even more time off.  There have been years in the past where a Holgorsen coached team regresses later in the season.  Can Houston stay motivated in road games at Kansas St and Baylor?  Up next are home games vs. Cincy and OK St.  The season closes with a game at UCF, who has fared well vs. the Cougars the last few seasons.

Houston Cougars Football Bottom Line: Total Wins Expected Expert Pick

 A 4-2 start could turn into 4-5, and if so, then Houston will need to go 2-1 hosting Cincy and Oklahoma St and closing at UCF to become bowl eligible. 

It seems like all the new schools will be fighting for bowl eligibility but not fighting for a spot in the Big 12 title game.  But this is about the long term, and the league could be wide open once Texas and Oklahoma leave.

Houston Cougars Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

My tip here last year was a rousing success, but overall, I was only 2-2 in their games, plus a bowl win. 

I’m looking for now at a 60-40 fade portfolio, and it will be more if Houston is not a rush pick as the season rolls along (28-12 ATS in that role).

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