Minnesota Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Minnesota Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Golden Gophers chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Minnesota football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Minnesota football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Gophers this season.

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Minnesota Football Preview 2023: Minnesota Picks for Betting

P.J. Fleck rubs some people the wrong way, but he gets the most out of the talent at hand.  They are 18-8 since Covid 2020, and a decent 11-7 in Big Ten play.  There are lots of moving parts prior to 2023.  This assessment won’t be all that easy.

Minnesota Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

There’s been some coaching changes offensively, but I have no opinion on the overall impact.  Player-wise, the new starting QB has upside, but MUST be charted early and often. 

The pass percentage is a concern, and turnovers may spike, so this is why charting his progress is critical.  RB Ibrahim and his 20 rush TD’s are gone.  So is the #2 guy. 

Fleck has always fielded a stout run game, so let’s see how transfer RB Tyler (one of three guys from Fleck’s former school from further back Western Michigan) fares.  This is the 2^nd straight season Minnesota’s OL has lost plenty of OL talent. 

My 2023 projection of just 4.1 per carry is lower than any of their finishes under Fleck, and my number is lower going back even further than that.  Yes. I’ll pivot if wrong, but if correct, I might be ahead of the curve.  The run defense outperformed my 2022 projections.  I’m up again at 4.3 per carry, so let’s see if the Gophers can better the number again. 

I’ve also put their pass defense percentage projection (just) above 60%.  Minnesota reminds me a bit of Iowa, a fundamentally sound program, but I think the talent is not up to 2022’s level, although they do recruit well, which bodes well for longer term continuity. 

I would like to see better pass pressure, as 17 sacks (19 counting the bowl) is too low.  Their PK (15-18) transferred.  The projected starter has a big kickoff leg, but is an unknown otherwise.

Minnesota 2023 Predictions, Minnesota Schedule:

Minnesota’s schedule heats up this year, so if I’m right about some of their regression then Fleck will have a big coaching test on his hands. 

Facing a new coach (Nebraska) at home is a bit of a perk, so if they hold serve over pesky E Mich than the 1^st test will be at UNC on 9/16. 

I’ll pre-scout Minnesota’s run game vs. UNC’s run defense.  Even with a loss, 4-1 is entirely possible, as they could be double-digit favorites three times (-7 in the opener vs. Nebraska).  If there are two games Minnesota cares most about, it’s Michigan and at Iowa, games 6-7. 

There’s good news, as the Gophers have a week off between these two games.  I’d worry about a letdown after the Iowa game, but of course I will be charting Michigan State to see if their culture is such that they warrant a win shot. 

Games 9-10 could go either way, especially if there are flaws not only here, but with Illinois (QB, DB) and Purdue (new staff, etc.).  My pre-checks are QB play, my defensive projections vs. actual results, and close game kicking.  They close hosting Wisconsin.  They beat the Badgers last year, but remember, that game did not decide the Big 12 West, and there was an interim staff in place. 

I’ll pre-check how Wisconsin is doing on the road with the new staff, and the motivational aspect for both teams.

Minnesota Season Prediction – Bottom Line

The recruiting, coaching, and enthusiasm in this program are all above average.  We might see some signs that the offense and/or the defense undergoes growing pains, and with the tougher schedule that could mean 6-6. 

It’s tough to discard this team based on how hard they’ve recently competed, but on paper they have some holes to fill.

Minnesota Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Game one clues will let me know if they are vulnerable if too big a favorite the next week (Eastern Michigan).  If the data does show up in Minnesota’s favor I might take them at Iowa, but I’m also looking to possibly fade them the next week vs. Michigan State.  I’m neutral on November for now until I see in-season numbers.

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