Virginia Football Predictions, How To Bet on Virginia in 2023

Virginia Football Football Predictions, Total Wins Expected, Handicapping Tips:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Cavaliers chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Virginia football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Virginia football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Cavaliers this season.

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Virginia Football Preview 2023: Virginia Picks for Betting

You don’t lose a top tier coach and get better.  Bronco Mendenhall said he needed a break and I understood, as I wrote in this spot a year ago.  With colleges poaching other schools for top athletic talent (portal) and boosters stepping up to pay athletes disproportionally at various schools (NIL), college football is changing in a bad way. 

It was fade city in 2022, as losing Mendenhall proved to be costly.  Virginia finished 1-6 in the ACC before tragedy sadly ended their season.  In today’s world of college football, a big fall from grace can happen overnight.

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Virginia Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH, Strengths and Weaknesses

The coordinators remain for a second season, and there’s a decent amount of returning talent, but Virginia saw all-ACC starters at LB and CB transfer. 

On the surface, the defense looked fine, but a closer look shows four of their seven ACC opponents scored 31 or more points, although the pass defense percentage was not awful.  The defense produced 30 sacks a year ago and they have enough returning talent to be at that figure again in 2023. 

Offensively, the run offense dropped as I suspected it would, but the pass attack faltered, even with their QB and top three WR’s returning. 

The issue was that the OL returned zero starters, which is often a recipe for regression.  For 2023, the RB depth chart looks better but WR and QB spots are different, and the OL looks average.  It was a surprise to see Virginia finish -9 in turnover margin. 

Maybe that improves, but the new QB is from Monmouth, and must be charted.  I recommend charting sacks allowed (33 last year in just nine lined games, and the OL lost players to the portal), RB Kobe Pace (nice numbers at Clemson) and winning on the road (1-3 a year ago).  The point offense also needs to rise.

Virginia 2023 Predictions, Virginia Schedule: How Hard is the Schedule?

After facing a relatively soft schedule in 2022, Virginia has amped up its non-conference slate.  The goal is 3-1, but even 2-2 requires a split of James Madison and at Maryland. 

Their initial ACC game is at home vs. NC State on a Friday.  A win gives them a fighting shot of at least 3-3, with a game at Boston College up next.  Games 7-8 are at UNC and at Miami. 

They went 0-2 hosting these teams in 2022, losing by a combined total of five points.  A split is the likely best-case scenario, with the Miami game one that they could sneak up and win. 

If Virginia gets to 4-4, then 6-6 is clearly possible.  The final 3^rd of the season is home to Georgia Tech (good history), at Louisville, home to Duke (good history) and home to Virginia Tech.  The Virginia Tech game might be emotional, considering the tragic circumstances which caused the game to be cancelled a year ago.

Virginia Football Bottom Line: Total Wins Future Pick

The start figures to be slow, as this team breaks in new players at key offensive positions, but much of the pacing in the conference schedule is decent.  If the stat sheet holds up in September, then Virginia might surprise a few folks down the stretch.  Right now, they look like a favorite only about three times, which doesn’t translate readily into wins. 

I think this could be 2-6, and overall, perhaps about 4-8.  I’ll know by early October if Virginia’s new players are able to outperform their early projections.

Virginia Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

I’m in no hurry to back this team, and that will remain the case if the offense does not improve.  I’ll watch early home/road splits, and routinely check my stat projections against early results.

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