San Diego State Football Handicapping and Betting Advice for 2023

San Diego State Football Total Wins Expectations & 2023 Predictions:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Aztecs chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on San Diego State football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for San Diego State football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Aztecs this season.

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San Diego State Football Preview 2023: San Diego State Picks for Betting

San Diego State opened up their brand-new stadium last year and went 5-2, but games were closer than expected (0-4 vs. the spread when favored).

Despite playing in a conference that has few innovative offenses, the defensive numbers were unusually weak. While campaigning to join the PAC 12, San Diego State can’t afford to slip much in the Mountain West. Let’s see if they can fix some of last year’s numbers.

College Football WEEK 1 ULTIMATE Betting Guide Video

San Diego State Football Bottom Line: Total Wins Expected

Just 8-4 as a ceiling, with 6-6 just as plausible. I’m worried about the run to pass transition, and worried that the defense won’t return to past levels.

Don’t look now, but they could be an underdog in weeks 3-6, and may need to recover from a potential slower than usual start.

San Diego State Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

If I’m right about the numbers, then I’ll probably look to fade San Diego State football a bit more than follow. I have some good notes on their team sheet.

San Diego State Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

It “seems” like San Diego State is ready to transition to more of a passing offense. Ryan Lindley, a former QB here, is the new coordinator and there’s more trust in the aerial attack with current QB Mayden.

His upside is contingent on reducing his interception figure. The run game had a slight rebound a year ago (4.35), but overall yardage continued to regress.

I don’t think we’ll see much of a resurgence. After consecutive seasons allowing about 3.0 per carry, the run D “skied” to 4.2-138 in ’22.

All three DL depart, and there may be further regression. The back seven was average. Maybe the pass D% stays about 60%, but not only are five of their top six tacklers gone, but so are their top four sack specialists, including their leader at 10.5 sacks.

I’ll be charting each area on defense early and often. San Diego State football routinely puts up solid special team ratings. That should continue.

San Diego State 2023 Predictions, San Diego State Schedule:

Brady Hoke was not the Head Coach when Ohio beat San Diego State 27-0 in a 2018 bowl game. The “rematch” is at home. I find it fascinating games 3-4 are home to UCLA and at Oregon State.

While ultimately not affecting their PAC 12 resume, San Diego State wants to prove it can be competitive with bowl worthy PAC 12 teams. Look for extra effort in these two games.

Unlike some other Mountain West teams, San Diego State’s early schedule is loaded. Games 5-6 are vs. the presumed leaders of the conference, home to Boise and at Air Force.

All they need is a split to give themselves a decent shot at reaching the title game. San Diego State kicked a field goal with seven seconds left to beat underdog Hawaii. The rematch is on the Island. The last time they faced Utah St, the Aggies destroyed the Aztecs 46-13 in the ’21 (home) title game.

The rematch is at home again, this time in their new stadium. Maybe consecutive road games at Colorado State and San Jose State are tricky, but the Aztecs might be favored in both.

I’ll pre-check turnovers, the OL, and my projected defensive numbers vs. what has been achieved. If all goes well, the finale hosting Fresno will be meaningful. One of the most improbable NCAA losses took place in this game a year ago, and San Diego State is likely going to remember how that game ended.

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