Week 1 NFL Recap – Week 2 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 1

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 1 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 2 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL QB ‘s Couldn’t Just Turn on a Switch and Perform Week 1

NFL QB ‘s couldn’t just turn on a switch and perform Week 1. Joe Burrow put up 82 passing yards and was benched when the game was out of hand. Ryan Tannehill threw three picks.

Last year’s QB revelation, Geno Smith barely exceeded 100 yards (112) against what was expected to be a subpar LA Rams secondary.

Other QB’s put up pedestrian numbers even when their team won. What do I make of this? Not much, as the timing will come.

By Week 3 we should see numbers we are more accustomed to, but it’s something to think about if you wager on player props or participate in fantasy wagering.

Assessment of the Three Rookie Starters in Week 1

Anthony Richardson (Indy) performed above expectations. He will make bad throws and bad reads all season long due to his limited number of college starts (13), but his ability to extend plays makes him dangerous.

C.J. Stroud (Houston) also exceeded my expectation, especially given his 1st assignment was facing one of the most physical defenses around in Baltimore.

He took five sacks, but that I expected. If he shows the ability to limit interceptions then I think Houston will be competitive in more games than initially thought.

Young (Carolina) was not quite as good. Facing a defense that hardly ever gets to opposing QB’s, Young forced throws and completed 20 passes for only 147 yards.

Moving forward, we know his offensive line has issues, and the WR/TE units are weak. I think Young has the ability to get better even as a rookie, but the 1st test was one he did not pass.

Great Teams Exposed?

Okay, Minnesota was 13-4 in 2022, but smart handicappers knew they performed like a middle of the road team. Tampa is one of the more experienced teams in the NFL, but their ceiling is still low.

Early turnovers cost the Vikings, who probably should have won the game, but expect one-score games to even out this season.

It was easy to see that the Giants thrived a year ago thanks to better coaching, coupled with a solid draft class from their new GM. What was also easy to see was that their on-field personnel, especially defensively, was going to have issues with the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The splits just on pass D% were large last year. Dallas exposed this defense, and yes, also exposed their offensive line.

I think the NYG will be fine when not facing the upper echelon of the NFL thanks to another solid draft class, but beware when facing teams that are considered either strong offensively and/or bring a pass rush that could win vs. Daniel Jones and his offensive line.

Three Key Teams to Keep in Mind for Week 2

Denver started 2023 the way they ended 2022. Here’s what I wrote in my 2023 Denver preview: Bradley Chubb was traded after week eight. The sack ratio was 24-24 with him, and a disastrous 12-39 without him. Let that sink in.

Denver had ZERO defensive sacks on Sunday vs. a very average Vegas offensive line. The relationship between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson (27 completions, just 177 yards) is something to keep an eye on all season long.

The LA Rams played a near perfect game in a much-deserved win at Seattle. Perhaps Matthew Stafford is as healthy as he’s been in a few years? Is this a one-game outlier, or something to monitor moving forward?

Baltimore, not again? Will they ever stay healthy? RB Dobbins (Achilles) is a huge loss. Safety Marcus Williams (torn pec) will miss a few weeks.

Two OL starters, including their left tackle left game one and may miss some time. Lamar Jackson better stay healthy in 2023.

NFL Week 2 Key Betting Observations

Green Bay at Atlanta: Don’t look now, but one of these teams will start 2-0 and be full of confidence. For the Packers, Jordan Love looked poised, and the defense continues to get better. For Atlanta, it wasn’t pretty, but adding safety Jessie Bates in free agency may have been one of the best offseason signings of any team, and he already is paying dividends.

Kansas City at Jacksonville: As I write this, Chris Jones has ended his holdout. He was missed, but TE Kelce was missed even more.

Kansas City looked ordinary Week 1, but caught a break when the Chargers also lost. The Jaguars want to avenge last year’s playoff loss and regular season loss, which were both played on the road.

The defense has a few things to clean up. Facing Mahomes won’t be easy, but this is their opportunity to make an early statement and impact the race in the AFC.

I find it interesting that as of Monday afternoon, 11 of the 16 games for week two have lines of -3.5 points or less. This is another reminder to not overreact to what we just saw week one.

Tampa and the Rams may still finish with losing records. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are likely to be better than what they showed Week 1.

For most teams, I make observations about week one performance, including player usage, plus chart what new offensive and defensive coordinators are doing to see if tendencies from a year ago are different.

Beyond that, I try not to deviate from my expectations about each team until at least three, and usually four games have been played.

DO NOT forget to check the injury wire before making a wager this week. With players seeing less preseason action that ever, conditioning becomes a major issue.

In addition to Baltimore, Seattle could be down two offensive line starters, and other teams saw important players leave week one games early due to injury.

Hamstring injuries are the most prevalent this time of year, and although I am not a doctor, these injuries tend to linger for a couple of week or more.

Pay attention to who is practicing and who is not this week, and get to know who the back-up player would be in case a starter is not likely to play.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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