Noche UFC: Grasso vs Shevchenko Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 16

Noche UFC Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his Noche UFC predictions and picks for September 16 with Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko headlining the event in a women’s flyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

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Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko: Noche UFC Main Event

Saturday, September 16	Noche UFC Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alexa Grasso +140 vs Valentina Shevchenko -165
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -150 / Under +130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

Noche UFC Predictions

Josefine Knutsson -426 v MArnic Mann +326

I was confused when Knutsson didn’t get a UFC contract on Contender Series, but the MMA Gods were looking out for her as the UFC quickly put her in a fight where she was an underdog to Iasmin Lucindo, and then Lucindo pulled out so she becomes a big favorite over Marnic Mann, and I think she easily wins this fight.

She is a kickboxer style fighter with great cardio, and she should have her way on the feet with Mann who is not a strong fighter. She got knocked out on Contender Series last season by Bruna Brasil, and has won the rest of her fights against way lesser competition.

Her last fight was in the LFA where she lost the first round and came back to win the next two rounds in one of the most boring fights you’ll ever see as Mann leaned on her opponent against the cage for rounds two and three, and that opponent is 7-6. Knutsson is going to use her crisp kicks and strikes against Mann, and Mann does not have striking or counters that will worry Knutsson.

Mann’s style isn’t going to work against Knutsson who has great movement, and she will be able to do way more damage than Mann will be able to give out.

Knutsson isn’t a finisher, but she’ll have the chance as she piles up damage against Mann. I’ll take Knutsson to win, but sprinkling her to win by finish isn’t a bad bet as well.

Charlie Campbell -400 v Alex Reyes +300

It’s a miracle that Reyes is even walking, let alone fighting. He hasn’t fought in six years due to a spine infection that was so bad, doctors told him he may never walk or hold his kids again. He fought through that and is fighting Campbell, and I have no idea what to expect from Reyes in this fight.

He has had one UFC fight and that was a short-notice fight that he moved up a weight class to take, and he got knocked out by a knee shot in the first round. Before that fight, he had won seven fights in a row by finish, but I can’t take him to win this fight.

Charlie Campbell lost an insane fight on Contender Series where he rocked his opponent Chris Duncan, and Duncan was almost finished until he threw a hail mary punch that knocked out Campbell.

Campbell went on to win a grappling match, and in June knocked out Josh Streacker in CFFC in two minutes. Campbell has really good power, and he’s fought nine times since Reye’s last fight.

Just walking into the cage is a victory for Reyes, but he’s 36 years old and probably not in the shape that Campbell is. Campbell has big time power, and I see him knocking out Reyes.

Tracy Cortez -125 v Jasmine Jasudavicius +105

This is great match making as the odds show how close this fight will be, and this fight will probably come down to who will win the wrestling and ground game.

Both are very strong in this area as Cortez is coming of a nice win over Melissa Gatto where she won the wrestling battle, and Jasudavicius is coming off a dominating win over Miranda Maverick where she won the wrestling battle.

With the odds being so close, the value is on Jasudavicius, and I’ll lean slightly towards her to win. She’ll have a height and reach advantage, and I believe she’ll have better control when the fight goes to the ground.

The best way to bet this fight is to play the fight to go the distance I believe, and that’s how I’ll wager on it.

Edgar Chairez -220 v Daniel Lacerda +185

Daniel Lacerda is terrible, and I’m surprised he’s getting another fight. He’s 0-4 in the UFC, and he’s been finished in all four fights. He’s sloppy everywhere and just isn’t a UFC caliber fighter.

Edgar Chairez got to face Tatsura Taira in his UFC debut unfortunately, and he was dominated on the ground, but Taira does that to everyone.

Chairez showed toughness by not getting finished, but we didn’t get to see much of his offense. His fight before his UFC debut will live in infamy as he submitted his opponent and the ref did not realize his opponent was unconscious which resulted in a serious injury.

However, before that Chairez’s striking looked solid as did his movement on the feet. He holds his hands a bit low for my liking, but Lacerda hasn’t shown the ability to take advantage of it. Lacerda is a complete fade, Chairez should win this fight, probably by finish.

Roman Kopylov -275 v Josh Fremd +235

I’m a Kopylov fan, and I am stunned the fight is only -275. Fremd has won two fights in a row, but against the bottom of the barrell fighters in Jamie Pickett and Sedriques Dumas.

Before that, he lost to Tresean Gore and Anthony Hernandez, and I don’t think he has the standup game to compete with Kopylov.

Kopylov is getting better and better every fight, and he’s knocked out his last three opponents. Fremd will be trying to get the fight to the ground, but Kopylov can stuff takedowns and he can handle himself on the ground so I don’t see Fremd’s big advantage there.

On the feet, it’s Kopylov with the huge advantage and I think he lands enough damage early to take away Fremd’s ability to shoot, and Kopylov gets the finish or a dominate win by decision.

Lupita Godinez -450 v Elise Reed +350

Loopy Godinez has an extensive background in wrestling, but apparently, she and her team don’t care as she’s abandoned the wrestling and now she’s a striker.

She’s won her last two fights against Ducote and Calvillo, and if she chooses to strike for all three rounds she’ll have success against Elise Reed, but the fight will be close. Reed has terrible takedown defense, and a pretty good standup game so Godinez will have no problem wrestling and dominating on the ground if she wants.

Reed won her last fight against Jinh Yu Frey, but Frey was able to get a couple takedowns and she was able to hold Reed down for a few minutes, but Reed was better on the feet.

I worry about betting on this fight because of Godinez’s strategy lately. She lost against Angela Hill because she wouldn’t wrestle, and Reed is capable of winning a three-round stand-up battle.

I’ll side with Godinez to win this fight as she has more weapons and better cardio late in the fight, but I won’t be betting on it or putting it in a parlay.

Fernando Padilla -241 v Kyle Nelson +206

Fernando Padilla had a great debut as he knocked out Julian Erosa, and I was amazed at how much better he looked in his debut than his previous fights in smaller promotions.

He is tall, and rangy and showed surprising power in his last fight, but I wish the fight would’ve lasted longer so I could’ve seen more of his game.

Kyle Nelson is coming off a win against Blake Bilder where Bilder just handed him a win by showing 0 fight IQ. Nelson is 2-4 in the UFC, and he doesn’t do one thing particularly well.

He doesn’t throw a lot of volume, he tires out easily as the fight goes on, and he’ll shoot in on fighters to push them against the fence where he won’t do much with them.

That being said, he’s a veteran and Padilla is still young and I haven’t seen enough of him to lay this price. From a betting perspective, this is a pass for me, and I would recommend not putting Padilla in parlays as we haven’t seen enough of him against UFC competition to see how his cardio will hold up.

Daniel Zellhuber -256 v Christos Giagos +216

I’m a Daniel Zellhuber fan, and we cashed betting on him in his last fight against Vannata, and I like him to win again here. He’s 24 years old so we’re seeing him improve with each fight, and I like all of his tools.

He’s tall, but he has really good power, and his long legs give him a big weapon that he knows how to use.

He showed his accurate punches and knees in the first round against Vannata (I still can’t believe the ref didn’t stop the fight), and he cruised to an easy victory.

He shows great patience for a 24 year old, and his clinch game is really good as he delivers fantastic knees to the body in close.

Raul Rosas Jr -555 v Terrance Mitchell +405

This is a great spot for Rosas to rebound after suffering his first loss in his last time out. Rosas got too excited in the first round and gassed himself trying to get the finish, and had no energy in rounds two and three and loss by decision.

He won’t make that mistake again, and his grappling and submissions should be too much for Terrance Mitchell. Mitchell comes from the Alaskan fight scene which is notorious for shady fights, and in Mitchell’s UFC debut he got ground and pounded out in the first round.

He doesn’t cardio or good striking, and his ground game isn’t very good either. Rosas will definitely try and get this to the ground quick, and once on the ground he’ll dominate.

Rosas is young and made a big mistake in his last fight, but him and his team will rectify that, and I would expect a much more patient performance from him. This should be a showcase fight for him to get back on the winning track.

Kevin Holland -105 v Jack Della Maddalena -115

Jack Maddalena is undefeated in the UFC, but he got a scare in his last fight against short notice replacement Bassil Hafez who was able to take Maddalena down and avoid the elite boxing of Maddalena.

Kevin Holland is coming off a great win against Chiesa in July where we quickly submitted Chiesa in the first round, and if he implements his wrestling and submission game, he might win pretty easily on the ground.

However, Holland is an interesting fighter who sometimes would rather lose a fight if it’s a fun challenge as opposed to winning (Stephen Thompson), but his last two fights he’s looked dialed in and focused on the win.

Jack will win a boxing style match, but I see Holland looking to take this to the ground and test Maddalena’s ground game. I’ll lean Holland as he does a great job of not absorbing a huge shot to the chin, and Maddalena’s last fight had some big red flags for how limited he can be.

Noche UFC Event: Alexa Grasso +140 v Valentina Shevchenko -165

Alexa Grasso shocked Valentina Shevchenko when she submitted the Champ in March, and she comes in as the underdog here and I think Grasso wins again.

Grasso won the first round on the feet, and then Shevchenko won the next two rounds. In round four, Schevchenko went for a spinning attack and Grasso caught her back and immediately grabbed the rear naked choke getting the win.

I think we’re seeing from Shevchenko what we’ve seen from Kamaru Usman, and from Israel Adesanya in his loss to Sean Strickland, and that’s just fatigue from a lot of wear and tear as Champions.

Usman looked bad after his loss, and Adesanya looked like a shell of himself, and Shevchenko hasn’t looked like her dominant self in her last two fights, and she’s a 35 year old fighter who has fought the best of the best for a while, and the stress and physical toll may have caught up to her.

She hasn’t lost in six years, and I think it’s going to be too tough for her to get motivated to win back the title, similar to Usman.

Grasso was able to do damage to Shevchenko on the feet, and the advantage that Shevchenko had was her takedowns, but she couldn’t do a lot of damage on the ground.

If Grasso can stuff an early takedown or two, it could demoralize Shevchenko and lead to Grasso pulling away on the feet.

There’s no doubt that Grasso has been working on takedown defense, and I think she edges out a win by decision. All good things come to an end, and I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end of a legendary careeer for Valentina Shevchenko.

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