Iowa vs Penn State Picks, Predictions and Odds (Oct 9)

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions

WagerTalk college football handicapper Adam Trigger offers his Iowa vs Penn State Big Ten betting preview. At the time of posting, the Hawkeyes are a -1.5 home favorite over the Nittany Lions with the total sitting at 41 points.

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Iowa vs Penn State Betting Preview

The football weekend is well underway thanks to a couple of weeknight plays but I’ll start filling the card out with plays for Saturday and we will start in the Big Ten with the biggest game in College Football this week when the #3 Iowa Hawkeyes take on the #4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.

I took it on the chin betting against Iowa last week as Maryland turned the ball over seven times in what ended up being a 51-14 mauling by Iowa but I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes being a top 3 team in college football. Iowa’s defense is outstanding but the Hawkeyes offense has been pedestrian and sooner or later Iowa is going to run into a team that takes care of the football and the Hawkeyes aren’t going to be able to pad their numbers with defensive scores. Iowa is taking the ball away from their opponents at such an alarming rate there’s just no way the Hawkeyes can sustain what they have done to this point defensively. Penn State is one of the elite teams in college football this season, the Nittany Lions have turned the ball over just three times this year and are a very solid +6 in turnover margin. Penn State has proven they can play mistake free football and they have done it against quality teams like Wisconsin and Auburn. Iowa’s offense hasn’t moved the ball consistently, Penn State isn’t going to gift the Hawkeyes points and I think that is going to make it extremely difficult for Iowa to win here.

Iowa enters play with one of the worst passing offenses in the country led by quarterback Spencer Petras who is a game manager more than anything. Petras is your typical Iowa quarterback, he rarely makes mistakes and he’s there to hand the ball off and facilitate an Iowa rushing attack that isn’t as good this year as it’s been in years past. Iowa averages 320 yards of total offense per game which is a dismal 109th out of 130 FBS teams. Penn State ranks third nationally in scoring defense, the Nittany Lions shut out Indiana last time out and have held their opponent under 300 yards of total offense in back-to-back games. Many will view this as a step up for Penn State but Wisconsin, Indiana and Auburn all have more productive offenses than Iowa does this season. Penn State allowed 10, 0 and 20 points to those three teams respectively, I think there’s a good chance the Nittany Lions hold Iowa to 20 or less here and if they do I fully expect this to be a Penn State win.

Penn State’s biggest issue offensively has been their ability to run the ball but it’s unlikely any team is going to have any real success running the ball against Iowa. What Penn State does have is a quarterback in Sean Clifford with the ability to make plays and if he makes his throws, and keeps mistakes at a minimum, I think the Nittany Lions will be able to move the ball enough to have the upper hand here. Maryland had receivers open last week, the problem for the Terrapins was for every good play they made there was an ill advised throw on another down from Taulia Tagovailoa and five of them were picked off. Maryland’s backup threw the sixth interception and there’s just no way for any team to overcome that many mistakes in one game. Clifford doesn’t need to take chances like Tagovailoa did because Penn State has a defense capable of going stop for stop with Iowa here. There’s no reason for Clifford to throw into coverage and if Iowa isn’t forcing turnover after turnover the Iowa offense is likely not finding themselves in a short field where it’s far easier to score. I think Penn State is going to be content playing the field position game here because Iowa hasn’t shown the ability to sustain drives, I think that keeps the Nittany Lions out of turning it over and I don’t think Iowa can beat an elite team without the defense providing some of the offense like they have been all season.

I didn’t have Iowa in my Top 20 coming into the season so I’m just not buying them as the #3 team in the country here. I do, on the other hand, think Penn State is elite and the Nittany Lions have managed to go 5-0 and knock off two ranked teams despite being awful on third down so far this season. The reason for that is Penn State hasn’t run the ball well but I have that as somewhat of a moot point since there really isn’t a team out there that’s going to be able to run it consistently on Iowa. This game is about Clifford’s ability to make plays but, more importantly, protect the football. If Clifford does that Penn State wins and we have the added bonus of getting a free point to work with in a game that’s likely close and should be a pick. Play on Penn State +1.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units).

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— Adam Trigger (@TopFlightSI) October 7, 2021

Iowa vs Penn State Analysis from The GoldSheet

This game features two of the stingiest defenses in the country. Penn State is allowing just 12 points per game (No. 3 in the nation) while Iowa is at 11.6 (No. 2). There is a revenge motive for Nittany Lions, who were beaten 41-21 by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last season, giving up five sacks as Sean Clifford threw a pair of interceptions. including a pick-six, and Penn State wound up on the wrong end of the turnover count (-3). With two great defenses, we will side with team we perceive to have edges on offense and potentially in motivation. Penn State’s Clifford has completed 67-percent of his passes this year. On the other hand, Iowa’s Spencer Petras has been less productive and less effective, completing 59-percent with a 16-6 TD-interception ratio in his career. The Nittany Lion receiver trio of Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert Smith appear more able to stretch the field than do the top receivers for the Hawkeyes. These two teams have combined to go 8-2 to the under this season, and it would’ve been 9-1 save for the final garbage time TD that Villanova hung on Penn State.

Iowa vs Penn State Betting Notes

WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Rob Veno and Tony Finn offer their Iowa vs Penn State betting preview. The last two games in Iowa City have come down to one score in the fourth quarter. Can we expect another Big Ten thriller on Saturday?

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