Week 5 NFL Recap – Week 6 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 5

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 5 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 6 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 5

For this week, I’ll list my biggest risers and fallers according to my opening 2023 NFL Power Ratings, plus share some “Did You Know” nuggets, and close with one upcoming game that caught my early attention.

Like many long-time handicappers, I set opening Power Numbers for each team. I have three components that I use for assessing value on any particular game.

Power Rating differences of 2.5 points or more (my numbers vs. the spread) constitute a Power Play. The other components I use are technical/metric matchup analysis, and situational analysis.

We’re now five weeks into the season. Here’s my list of the top Power Rating risers and fallers.

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NFL Power Rating Risers

San Francisco 49ers: My opening Power Number took into account SF’s injury and player turnover issues, but was still among the top tier of teams. SF is 5-0, winning four of those games by 18 or more points.

Brock Purdy is playing like he never was hurt, and Christian McCaffrey is simply the MVP through week five. No one scripts opening drives better. SF is now four rating points better than my opening number and is my #1 team in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins: Miami has assembled a roster that is the fastest I’ve ever seen. If Tua stays healthy this offense can be lethal all season long. Even with the week four loss at Buffalo, they have gained four rating points over my openers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I wasn’t alone in thinking Tampa was in trouble heading into the season but through four games, this team has not only achieved a 3-1 record, but has done so with a metric stat sheet that does not appear to be smoke and mirrors.

Yes, they got lucky (+3 turnovers) in the opener at Minnesota, but the Bucs have a 12-4 sack ratio, an improved overall defense, and in Baker Mayfield, a leader who fits what Tampa tries to do offensively. It may not continue all season long, but for now they have improved by three Power Rating points.

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud has been amazing, leading Houston to my 4th largest Power Number change.

That still puts them in the bottom part of the league, but it’s clear that they are far more competitive than most thought they would be.

NFL Power Rating Fallers

New York Giants: Even before playing Miami, the NYG figured to be at the top of this list. Their slow 1st half starts are well documented. QB Daniel Jones has always had an internal clock issue, and his OL isn’t helping matters. In total, the NYG have been sacked 30 times. They are tied for last overall in my Power Ratings, and are six points off their openers.

Cincinnati Bengals: The win at Arizona helped, but the Bengals are still four points lower than where I opened them. The bye week is coming up after Sunday. If Joe Burrow gets healthy, I expect this team to become much more competitive. The pass defense has been fine. The run game needs to improve.

Chicago Bears: The win over Washington helped, but even modest expectations are not being met. The pass defense is awful and the sack ratio is at -13. They broke out of a last place tie in my Power Numbers, but remain just 29th overall.

New England Patriots: Like Chicago, they’ve lost three Power Points from my modest opening number. The Patriots have scored just three points the past two games, and are last in the NFL with 55 points in five games. With no spark on offense and in the locker room, it won’t be easy to turn this around.

NOTES: The New York Jets are down 4.5 Power Points, but that’s understandable with Aaron Rodgers gone. Carolina and Denver are next on the list of Power Rating fallers.

NFL Random Facts Through Week 5

The New York Giants had a +3 turnover ratio vs. Miami last week AND a pick-six, yet still were never a threat in the loss to Miami last week.

New England has a -8 turnover ratio. Bill Belichick hates turnovers, and his team is almost always on the plus side of things.

Speaking of turnovers, the Minnesota Vikings have had a negative turnover ratio in EVERY game this season. All four of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. Each turnover is worth 3.5 points in the NFL (Minnesota is -8 overall).

Rinse and repeat. Atlanta has five defensive sacks in five games. The league average with a 17-game schedule is 40, and this year, the average is likely to be around 44!

Atlanta had 18 sacks in 2021 and 21 sacks a year ago. They’ve been in the bottom three in at least the last four years. This week they host Washington, a team who has allowed 29 sacks. I will never take this team seriously until they address this issue.

Random Thought: Is RB Henry (Tennessee) being phased out? He had just 13 carries last week in a close game vs. the Colts. This team might look quite different in 2024.

NFL Week 6 Game of the Week – Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have no recollection as to when the Lions have ever been this high in my Power Ratings. They are tied for 6th at present with the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles.

The sack ratio is stout, and that OL is just as proficient at opening run holes. The biggest early change has been their run defense.

Standing at 5.2 per carry (146 yards per game) allowed in 2022, the current numbers are night and day better at 3.3 per carry allowed, and just over 68 yards per game.

Tampa Bay has allowed just four sacks in four games, and has a +7 turnover ratio. This team has veteran leadership throughout the defense and it shows up on game day. They also have two solid WR’s in Godwin and Evans.

Both teams lead their respective Divisions. They last played in 2020. Detroit is favored by three points as of this writing.

Early Game Keys: Can Baker Mayfield have success through the air? It’s unlikely that Tampa will have much success running the ball, which could make the task tougher.

Will QB Goff continue to have a clean pocket? It’s been my opinion that to rattle Goff you have to get the inside pass rush going, one that gets right into his face. The outside pass rush is not good enough, as Goff processes quickly.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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