UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 18

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for November 18th with Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headlining the event in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 5:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, November 18	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -120 / Under +100)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 5:00pm ET / 2:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Lucas Alexander -310 v Jeka Saragih +230

There aren’t many fighters I could be lower on than Saragih. His last fight was against Jubli, and he was an embarrassment.

He came out making faces at Jubli, putting his hands behind his back, and just acting very unprofessional. Then he got taken down and beaten up for the rest of the fight until he was finished in the 2nd round.

Saragih hasn’t faced the best competition on his road to the UFC and it looked like when he had a step up in competition, he was out of his league.

He has a lot of finishes on his resume, but none of them against fighters who are UFC caliber. I see no upside on him, and if he performs like that in this one he’ll get finished again.

Lucas Alexander got finished in his UFC debut by Brito (no shame in that), but responded by beating Steven Peterson by decision in his next fight.

Alexander displayed good leg kicks and plenty of volume on the feet, and while he didn’t get the finish he did do plenty of damage to Stevenson. Alexander should beat Saragih in this one, he’s a fine parlay piece.

Charles Johnson -102 v Rafael Estevam -118

I’m not a Charles Johnson fan as I don’t think he has good offense, and he’s 2-3 in the UFC with his two wins being against bad opponents.

His striking is decent, volume on the feet is decent, but he keeps getting taken down in fights, and losing big chunks of the fight while on the ground, and Estevam is a guy who loves takedowns.

Estevam hasn’t fought since last years Contenter Series where he won by taking his opponent down with ease and getting the round two ground and pound win.

I’ve faded Johnson the last two fights and cashed on both, and my only worry is that Johnson has good cardio so if Estevam doesn’t finish and he tires himself out, Johnson will have energy in the third round.

I’ll still take Estevam to win because of his takedown and ground control, but since I haven’t seen him in a while I’ll be passing on this fight. If you’re a live bettor, and you see Estevam get tired in the second, Johnson is worth a look on a live bet.

Jose Johnson -205 v Chad Anheliger +170

Jose Johnson has shown bad takedown defense in his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. He was able to win on Contender Series as his opponent did no damage on the ground, but Johnson was being controlled for a majority of the fight.

He makes his UFC debut and Blackshear controls him immediately, and wins by a rare twister submission.

Just not good performances from Johnson against his toughest opponents. The question is, can Chad Anheliger take advantage of that weakness? Absolutely not.

Heliger has 0 takedowns in his last three fights, and in fact he’s been taken down 11 times in those fights so Johnson’s biggest weakness is something Heliger can’t exploit.

Heliger stands and strikes, but I think Johnson has the advantage there as Heliger’s striking isn’t amazing.

He got the KO of Jesse Strader two fights ago, but Strader lost two UFC fights and isn’t in the UFC anymore, and the KO came in round 3 when Strader gasses and Heliger was behind on the scorecards going into that round.

His next fight he got pretty much dominated by Alateng, and I think Johnson can do the same here.

The price feels right so I’m not sure there’s a ton of value, but I don’t think Heliger is very good and Johnson should win the striking battle.

Jonathan Pearce -155 v Joanderson Brito +130

This will be a great test for Brito who has three first round finishes in his last three fights, but the last fight that went past the first round he lost by decision to Bill Algeo.

In that fight Brito had good control time in round one, but Algeo came on as the round went on, and Brito just didn’t have much left in the gas tank and Algeo damaged him up en route to a solid win.

The recipe is the same here for Pearce. Survive the early onslaught from Brito, let him gas and win rounds two and three, and Pearce can absolutely do that.

He’s won five fights in a row, and all of them have been in round two or later. He has good striking, he has a good ground game, I actually think this -155 is a solid price. Pearce has more weapons, he’s well-rounded and he has the better cardio. Pearce is the pick in this one.

Mick Parkin -340 v Caio Machado +270

This heavyweight fight is going to feature two big guys who will be exhausted by the end of the first round if there isn’t a finish.

Parkin won against Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut so you can make the case he’s got a bit more experience than Machado, and Machado is coming off a decision win on Contender Series in a less than exciting fight.

Don’t bet on this fight. These guys aren’t very good, the price is insane, there’s really not much else to this fight. Stay away.

Lucie Pudilova +112 v Ailin Perez -142

Lucie Padilova is coming off a split decision loss to Joselyn Edwards in one of the worst decision of the year as she clearly won the first two rounds. She got takedowns, controlled Edwards and did damage.

I thought it was a really good fight for her, and the judges took away a win from her. This is Pudilova’s second stint in the UFC so she’s faced really good competition, and has good takedowns, pretty good striking and good cardio.

She’s also going to be the bigger fighter, and that’s big because Perez likes to get into the clinch, wrestle and get it to the ground.

She’s coming off a dominant win against Ashlee Evans-Smith, but Smith is terrible and probably done fighting in the UFC. I’m a big fan of Perez, but she got finished by Stephanie Egger, and not being able to finish Evans-Smith was bad.

This fight should have lots of action, and it will be fun to watch, but I think Pudilova will be too much over three rounds. I’ll take the underdog here.

Nikolas Motta -142 v Trey Ogden +120

This is a tough fight to handicap. Motta knocked out Cameron VanCamp in round one two fights ago, but VanCamp is not a UFC caliber fighter and has been cut.

In the previous fight, Jim Miller melted Motta in the second round as Motta started off strong, and then got tired and knocked out. In Motta’s last fight against Manuel Torres he took a vicious elbow to the chin early in round one and was knocked out instantly.

So I’ve seen Motta beat a really bad opponent, and then get knocked out by two good opponents. Trey Ogden doesn’t impress me a ton as he was pieced apart on the feet against Bahamondes, however he did beat Daniel Zellhuber before that and he lost a close split decision to Jordan Leavitt before that.

I just don’t see the power from Ogden, which is too bad because Motta’s striking defense is terrible. Ogden has some submission finishes before he joined the UFC, maybe he gets back to trying to work submissions on Motta, but it appears Motta will have the early power advantage, and Ogden will have the cardio advantage.

This fight is a stay away, but the value is definitely in the plus money on Ogden as I don’t trust Motta at all.

Chris Duncan -125 v Cesar Almeida +105

I really like Duncan in this fight as he’s the better MMA fighter. Cesar Almeida is coming off an upset win on Contender Series against Lucas Fernando, but it wasn’t a dominating performance.

Fernando looked like he just froze in the spotlight, and had a terrible performance as he couldn’t get his takedowns and he absolutely gassed on the feet.

Almeida has a kickboxing background, but did show some good defense on the takedowns, but I didn’t think Almeida’s striking was all that impressivle.

Duncan is coming off a loss to Petrosyan where Petrosyan did what he normally does which is wear down his opponent on the feet and sneak out the last couple rounds.

Duncan has a unique striking style with crazy stances and attacks, and sometimes they’re effective, and sometimes they make him look really bad.

That was Duncan’s first career loss and I think he’ll be better because of it. I’m guessing he’s more focused and dialed in, and this is a pretty big step down in competition. I think the price is fair, and I’m not very high on Almeida so I like Duncan to win this one.

Uros Medic -245 v Jonny Parsons +200

This one should be exciting. Both guys love to brawl, and we’ll see plenty of haymakers in this one. I like Parsons at +200 here as these are two guys who hunt for knockouts so Parsons absolutely has a punchers chance, but also Medic eats a lot of punches.

He got dropped several times by Semelsberger before winning by KO in the third, and before that he knocked out Omar Morales, but Morales has lost three straight by KO so I see Medic knocking out guys without great chins.

Parsons will eat shots, and he showed his power by knocking out Danny Roberts. Parsons doesn’t look polished in the ring, but he’s super tough with a lot of power in his strikes, which is a recipe for an upset here. I’ll take Parsons to get the upset by KO.

Amanda Ribas -298 v Luana Pinheiro +230

I have a feeling Pinheiro gets humbled in this matchup as it’s quite the step up in competition, and I just don’t see the ability of Pinheiro to compete against the best.

She’s 11-1, but her UFC wins are a win from an illegal up kick against Randa Markos, a decision against Sam Hughes who was 5-3 at the time, and a close split decision win against The Karate Hottie (Michelle Waterson-Gomez) who has now lost 6 out of 7.

Amanda Ribas is fighting the best in this division, and he recent losses are to Katlyn Chookagian and Maycee Barber, and the Barber fight was one of the most amazing women’s fights, an absolute bloody war in the octagon.

Pinheiro doesn’t have the power to scare Ribas, and her stance and offense isn’t crisp. Ribas’s striking will land early and often and be way too much for Pinheiro. Ribas ML is a nice parlay piece.

Payton Talbott -525 v Nick Aguirre +400

Talbott is a prospect with a very high ceiling who is coming off a really nice win on Contender Series against a quality opponent.

Talbott is tall, and he has good jabs with those long arms that have good power behind them. He’s athletic on the feet and his cardio is great. In his last fight he showed good clinch and wrestling defense which helped him set up his strikes.

His weakness is his striking defense which needs a ton of work, but I don’t see Nick Aguirre as the guy to take advantage.

Aguirre got dominated by Dan Argueta in his UFC debut, and before his debut he really hadn’t fought anyone good as the combined record of his 7 opponents was 8-6.

I didn’t get to see much of Aguirre’s offense because Argueta was on top of him most of the fight, but what I did see wasn’t impressive.

Talbott is the real deal, but this price is insane for a debutant. I guess Talbott is a parlay piece as I expect his striking to piece apart Aguirre, but I won’t lay this price so it’s a stay away from a betting perspective.

Chase Hooper -245 v Jordan Leavitt +200

Chase Hooper looked great in his last fight as he moved up a weight division, and he talked about how much better his camp was without the brutal weight cut and it paid off as he got a decisive win over Nick Fiore.

This is great matchmaking as both these guys are unorthodox fighters, and on the feet this should be interesting as Jordan Leavitt has power, especially in the clinch, and Hooper showed improved striking last fight so I see both fighters landing successfully on the feet.

Hooper is known for his ground game so Leavitt will certainly try and keep it on the feet, but Leavitt can handle his own on the ground so I don’t see a Hooper submission win.

This fight is really tough to handicap as Hooper really looked much better in the new weight class, and I always think Leavitt is undervalued so this fight is a dog or pass situation. I won’t bet this fight, but I think Leavitt +200 is a great price.

Michael Morales -278 v Jake Matthews +225

Michael Morales keeps passing all the tests as he rises up the rankings in the UFC, and he can be tough to bet on because he’s young and the books are putting him at a big favorite, and you’re having to bet on him with the assumption that he keeps making improvements in between fights.

He beat Max Griffin by decision, and it was a solid win as Griffin tried to clinch and Morales was able to stuff and separate which let him land his punches at range which is his best weapon.

I think Jake Matthews is pretty similar to Max Griffin, and I’m not high on Matthews at all. He beat Darrius Flowers last fight, but Flowers was a last minute debutant who was in over his head.

Before that, Matthews lost to Semelsberger which is not a good look. Morales has the better striking, and Matthews will try and wrestle and get it to the ground, but Morales showed he has added solid takedown defense to his arsenal so I don’t see Matthews having much success.

Morales is low volume, but his strikes are accurate and powerful and that will propel him to the win here.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brendan Allen -430 vs Paul Craig +330

Interesting fight as both Allen and Craig are known for their ground games, but their striking has been on display in their last couple fights.

Paul Craig used his new striking to beat Andre Munizon the feet and eventually getting the ground and pound finish, and Brendan Allen caught Bruno Silva on the chin in his last fight and jumped on him to get the win on the ground as well.

Brendan Allen was getting lit up before he turned the tables on Allen, but I still don’t think Craig has the striking to KO or get Allen in trouble. Allen’s striking is much better.

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