La Liga Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview December 8-10

Betting Preview for La Liga Matches December 8-10

WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his December 8-10 La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Valencia vs Getafe and Real Madrid vs Betis. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!

Valencia vs Getafe | Friday December 8 | 3:00pm ET

Valencia +195 | Getafe +170 | Draw +195

It’s been a winless run of three straight games now for Valencia heading into this game who seemed to have steadied the ship after back-to-back losses against Real Sociedad and Betis earlier in the season, but who now find themselves back in mid-table after securing just one point from a possible nine across recent matchups.

The good news for Los Ches however is that those three games came against some of the best teams in LaLiga, namely the top two teams in the league Real Madrid and Girona, as well as a better-than-advertised Celta Vigo side also who just refused to go away two weeks ago.

For Getafe, they find themselves level on points with Valencia in the league table after winning back-to-back games at home, and remain one of only four teams on the season so far, the others being Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, and Betis, yet to lose a single game at home all year.

That strong home presence for the Azulones hasn’t been lost in this series either, with Getafe winning four of their last five head-to-head meetings against Valencia inside the Coliseum.

In terms of data, Getafe has been strong defensively at home this season, sitting top ten in defensive xGA and top two in terms of goals allowed from open play as well.

The big caveat for this game is that both teams rank very similarly in terms of the drop-off in form from home/road this year, with Getafe seeing a -0.94 xGD/90 minutes slump in their numbers from what they’ve managed at home this season, while Valencia have seen an even greater -1.00 xGD/90 minutes decline, and that appears to be a pivotal point here given the books are finding it very hard to separate the two teams currently.

Valencia has been a fantastic bet at home this year, smashing the likes of Atletico Madrid 3-0, but on the road they’ve been far less impressive, winning just one of their eight games on the season so far and sitting with the league’s 7th worst defensive xGA rating also, facts we just can’t ignore ahead of this one.

Take Getafe at a solid pick ‘em price on Friday to get the home win and cover against Valencia.

La Liga Prediction: Getafe PK [+0] (-120)

Real Madrid vs Betis | Saturday December 9 | 10:15am ET

Real Madrid -125 | Betis +330 | Draw +285

Surging Real Betis host a Real Madrid side on Saturday afternoon that currently occupies the top spot in the table on goal difference after securing a 2-0 home win against relegation-battling Granada last time out.

Betis meanwhile continue to surge up the LaLiga table, owning the league’s joint 3rd best form rating over their last five starts (2.20 PPG), along with posting an even better 2.67 PPG generated across their last five starts at home (2nd in the league overall).

With Real Madrid facing a trip over to Germany on Tuesday night to take on a Union Berlin team desperate for at least a Europa League spot this season, Saturday’s game could present somewhat of a banana skin for Los Blancos, and it’s no surprise to see this line filter down from an opener of -0.75 on the away side earlier in the week, to the -0.5 mark on display currently.

Betis’ major strength this year has been on the defensive end, boasting a backline that has allowed a phenomenal 0.29 GAPG at home this year, by far and away the best mark out of any team in the league this season. That’s backed up by the data also, with Betis owning LaLiga’s #2 rated defensive xGA numbers this year as well.

It’s hard to ignore those sorts of impressive statistics, even with Madrid potentially mailing it in on Tuesday night in a game they simply don’t need to show up in against Union Berlin given the fact they’ve already secured top spot in the group.

We’re going to take the home side in this one to generate at least a draw here on Saturday, a feat they’ve pulled off in two of their last three meetings against Real Madrid, and get to the window with a +0.5 ticket on Betis this weekend.

La Liga Prediction: Betis +0.5 (+105)

Girona vs Barcelona | Sunday December 10 | 3:00pm ET

Girona +480 | Barcelona -200 | Draw +375

Two of the top three teams in the league clash in the Catalonian derby on Sunday as Barcelona looks to secure their third straight win at home after suffering their only loss of the campaign so far in this venue back in late October against Real Madrid.

For Girona, it’s been more of the same this season, winning six of their last seven games outright in LaLiga after a slip-up against Real Madrid two months ago also, a result that many felt at the time could potentially halt Girona’s hot start to their league campaign.

That just hasn’t been the case, however, with the Gironistes ranking as the league’s best team over their last ten starts in the form table, amassing a pretty incredible 2.50 PPG on average.

Girona has also proven to be a real thorn in Barcelona’s side over the last couple of seasons as well, coming out with a positive result in both of their recent trips here (albeit at an even stronger Camp Nou), so they won’t be phased in the slightest about taking on their closest neighbors on Sunday.

For Barcelona, a draw in midweek against bottom-of-the-table Group H side Royal Antwerp would be enough to see them progress in top spot in their Champions League group, so expect them to give this one full focus on Sunday in a massive derby game at the top of the table.

That said, there’s no way we could back Barcelona here given how strong Girona has been this season, especially considering the fact that they not only remain unbeaten away from home this year, but also own a pretty substantial +0.41 xGD/90 bump on their road numbers as well.

The Over looks like another strong runner in this game, with Girona owning LaLiga’s #1 scoring offense this season, while Barcelona owns the league’s #1 offensive xG rating, so expect goals aplenty in this one come Sunday evening.

Girona +1 on the handicap and the Over 3 goals both look like extremely viable plays in this one given the data on both teams, so we’re happy to back either one at current market prices this weekend.

La Liga Prediction: Girona +1 (+100) / Over 3 (-125)