Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview December 15-17

Serie A Match Betting Preview for December 15-17

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his December 15-17 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Genoa vs Juventus and Bologna vs Roma. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Genoa vs Juventus | Friday December 15 | 2:45pm ET

Genoa +360 | Draw +220 | Juventus -125
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.5 | Total: 2.0

This has vintage Juve win written all over it. They have been nothing short of fantastic defensively all season with their one blemish that four-goal lapse against Sassuolo, which of course was their only loss on the season as well.

In their 14 other matches, Juve has allowed a total of just five goals while keeping nine clean sheets including against Napoli, Milan and Atalanta while also holding the best offense in the league, Inter, to one goal on only 0.7 xG.

For the season, they are allowing only 0.76 xGA per match and over their last ten, that drops even further to 0.67. Perhaps most impressively is that they have allowed an average of just 1.7 shots on target in those ten matches with six of those allowing one or less!

Meanwhile, Genoa average a league-low 2.7 shots on target per match. Of course, that doesn’t bode well for facing Juventus here. They average less than 1.0 xG per match, just 0.92 and have scored only five goals over their last eight matches.

What makes that even worse, is their last six opponents reads like this: Monza, Empoli, Frosinone, Verona, Cagliari and Salernitana. All six of those teams ranks in the bottom nine of the league in defensive xGA with Monza leading the group at 1.53. Again, compare that to Juventus, who rank 2nd in the league at 0.76.

Genoa did beat Juve here last year, but that was a broken Juventus side. Before that, Juve had won ten of the previous 12. Expect that trend to return.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus Moneyline -125

Shop both the ML and -0.5 handicap as both are the same bet.

Lecce vs Frosinone | Saturday December 16 | 9:00am ET

Lecce +100 | Draw +225 | Frosinone +255
Asian Handicap: Lecce -0.5 | Total: 2.25

I’ll start with Frosinone as I have fallen in love with them and seem to have a pretty good read on their matches. Here’s the main thing you need to know about Frosinone.

Their defense is not good. I say that as they are coming off a clean sheet vs Torino, but that was only their second of the season with the other coming back on Matchday 3 vs Udinese. Otherwise, they have conceded in their other 13 matches this season, including each of their last six on the road.

However, for a “bad team” they find the net often as they have been blanked only four times this season with a couple of those coming against Inter and Roma, two of the top four defenses in the league.

For Lecce, they got off to that fast start this season going unbeaten in their first five matches, scoring eight goals. They then struggled, losing four of their next six matches, scoring a total of just three goals as the schedule got tough with matches against Napoli, Juventus and Roma during that stretch.

They are now on a four-match draw run both scoring and conceding in all four as the competition has eased with matches against Empoli, Bologna and Verona in their last three. As much as I like Frosinone, you can lump them into that category of weaker teams.

Over Lecce’s last five matches, they have averaged 1.47 xG per match while their opponents have averaged 2.03 xGA. That has been the story of the season for them, as they have allowed a league-high 1.92 xGA per match.

On that note, Frosinone is not much better, allowing 1.68, the 5th most in the league. Bottom line, we have two bad defenses facing one another in a match both will believe they can win.

Serie A Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes -125

Shop both the ML and handicap of -0.5 as both are the same bet.

Bologna vs Roma | Sunday December 17 | 12:00pm ET

Bologna +135 | Draw +190 | Roma +215
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.25 | Total: 2.0

Immediate reaction looking at this matchup on the board? Under. Take the Under. What’s the price? Well, it opened at 2.25, but that disappeared quickly and now it sits and an even 2.0 which speaks to what the books expect in this match. A tight and tough battle.

However, with a total set at 2.0, there are just so many scenarios that this match could end exactly on two goals so to get 2.5, you have to pair it with something to keep the price in line, and personally, I like Bologna not to lose this match.

First, let’s start with the total. Bologna allows only 0.99 xGA per match while Roma allows exactly 1.0. Bologna has allowed two goals on three occasions, and never more than two, as 12 of 15 opponents they have held to one goal or less including six clean sheets. At home, after allowing two goals to AC Milan in their opener, they have allowed a total of just two goals in their next six matches combined.

Roma has similar numbers, though they opened the season a little shaky, conceding two goals in each of their first three matches and then four goals to Genoa in Matchday six. However, since then, they have conceded a total of six goals in nine matches and never more than one in any match, a run that includes Inter and Lazio.

Additionally, each of the last five meetings between these sides has finished with one goal or fewer.
Finally, Bologna is just a tough team to beat. They have only two losses on the season, losing their opener to Milan, and since just one loss in their next 14 matches to Fiorentina. That includes draws with Juventus, Napoli and Inter.

Meanwhile, Roma struggle to grab wins away from Rome with just two on the season coming against Cagliari and Sassuolo.

They also have losses to Verona and Genoa plus draws with Torino and Lazio. According to xG, Bologna is better than all those teams as they sit 6th in xP (expected points) on the season.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna Double Chance + Under 1.5 Goals