New Orleans Bowl Best Bets: Jacksonville State vs. UL Lafayette Predictions – College Football 12/16
New Orleans Bowl Preview & Free Picks: Jacksonville State vs. UL Lafayette Best Bets
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on The New Orleans Bowl being played on December 16th, between Jacksonville State and UL Lafayette. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!
Rich Rodriguez has once again proved how valuable a coach he is. Projected to win about four games, the Gamecocks instead went 8-4, and got to this bowl game thanks to an insufficient number of “qualified” 6-6 teams.
UL Lafayette (ULL) struggled under the new staff, putting together back-to-back 6-6 seasons. They remain in their home state, but is that a positive, considering they lost playing in Shreveport a year ago? This might be an important game for the direction of their program – this The New Orleans Bowl.
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New Orleans Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Jacksonville State Preview
The Gamecocks did not play a particularly difficult schedule, but beat the teams they were expected to beat. The rush ratio was 4.85-2.8. ULL is a run-first team, so the real question is this? How reliable is Jacksonville State’s stated 2.8 per-carry rush defense? Will they perform in the The New Orleans Bowl?
Liberty ran 55-245, and well-coached New Mexico State ran 48-186. They didn’t face many other even average rush attacks, but the numbers indicate they still slightly outperformed expectations. While running on ULL may be slightly more difficult than expected, QB Webb had five games where he himself ran for over 100 yards.
My numbers project Webb to be about 50% when passing the ball, so Webb, and his deep RB unit needs to run the ball effectively to get their offense rolling.
Jacksonville State Defensive Numbers
The defensive numbers are decent, but not perfect, considering the competition. The sack ratio is a stout 36-15. ULL has the ability to rush opposing QB’s, so Webb staying out of trouble is important. PK Karajic was 14-20, going 4-8 from 40 yards on out. He is in the transfer portal! I’m not sure why he needs to enter the portal before 12/16, but 2023 is the first time we’re seeing money thrown at kids encouraging them to transfer.
I’ll leave my personal commentary on this out of the bowl previews. For handicapping purposes, this could affect the kicking game and the kickoff game in The New Orleans Bowl.
New Orleans Bowl Best Betting Predictions
New Orleans Bowl Picks: ULL Strengths and Weaknesses
ULL fell off the map in the run game in 2022, but the 2023 version (5.05 per carry) was closer to previous standards. Current QB Fields is not a run threat, so it’s the RB unit that has to contend with a decent Gamecock run defense.
Fields recently had a stat line of 29-39 for 282 yards vs. Sun Belt title holder Troy, and I project him to be efficient in this spot as well. One more note about the run game. Freshman Elijah Davis saw virtually no action all year, but ran 14-109 vs. UL Monroe in the finale. I won’t read into that much, as UL Monroe has a terrible run defense, but it could mean that he shares the load in this game.
ULL’s Defense – How Does it Look?
ULL’s run defense is slightly above average. Upon closer inspection, they slowed but DID NOT STOP most of the teams on their schedule in defending the rush. In the pass game, at least six options are available. This diversity is an asset with the Gamecocks unable to focus on any one player. Here’s a quite unusual (and disturbing?) stat.
Despite their 5.05-3.85 rush ratio, ULL has a negative 7:37 time of possession figure. For this game, ULL has to do better with their 3rd down defense (45% conversion rate). With a 32-23 sack ratio, ULL has an opportunity to get off the field on obvious passing downs.
Their own pass defense slipped from 57% in 2022 to 62% this season. Can this be fixed vs. a QB who is not a high % passer? In other stat news, ULL’s return game defense is outstanding. Their kicker was 13-14.
New Orleans Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Jacksonville State needs to run effectively to get the pass game going. Early down success is important in order to keep the chains moving. The pass rush will be important for both teams. If the Gamecocks can’t get to QB Fields then ULL will have success through the air.
If Webb and the run game gets slowed down then advantage ULL on 3rd down. The two mysteries are time of possession and the kicking game. If ULL can’t do better with its 3rd down defense then the Gamecocks will control the ball and clock. Conversely, what happens on 4th down, with a new kicker, and will Jacksonville State lose yardage on kickoffs?
New Orleans Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions
I see Jacksonville State as the more motivated team, playing in its 1st ever bowl game at this level. The rush data agrees, but not overwhelmingly. ULL has one negative bowl situation that is worth about a one-point downgrade.
With all that said, my Power Numbers say the odds should be slightly lower. The total on this game has been steadily rising.
The Pick:
I lean with Jacksonville State on moneyline and team totals due to their run game and motivation.
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