Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M Free Picks: Texas Bowl Predictions, Best Bets 12/27

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas A&M Aggies Best Bets: Texas Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky rustles up some expert picks on The Texas Bowl being played on December 27th, between Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Almost no one liked Oklahoma State’s chances to go bowling.  I was on the OVER (6 and 6.5 wins) because I loved the schedule layout, the easier opponents, and the staff continuity.  The Cowboys clearly used games 1-3 for experimentation purposes, but after that, they found the right QB/RB combination and thrived. 

Conversely, I went UNDER A&M’s season win total of 8.5/8.  Readers may remember my seasonal preview where I cautioned fans of this team to be patient, seeing 2024 as the year they would peak, with a clear top 15 possibility.  No one is patient in the SEC.  A&M is the poster child for change in college football.

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Texas Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Oklahoma State Overview

Oklahoma State used three QB’s and three RB’s to start the season in an interesting, and actually quite impressive way to determine who they would turn to once Big 12 play commenced.  I’d say they made the right choice, as in Big 12 play, QB Bowman passed for 60%, albeit with just a 13-11 touchdown to interception ratio, while RB Gordon (just 19 carries games 1-3) ran 239-1,505, 6.3 per carry, with 18 rushing touchdowns (20 total). 

That’s an average of 26 carries per game.  Unless he surprises and does not play, it’s all systems go for the offense, which will only be without one of its top four targets.  If this was a regular season game, I would project trouble for the Cowboys, at least in terms of finding a perfect offensive rhythm.  A&M, as you will see below, will not be the same team for this bowl game. 

Most handicappers had the Cowboys regressing talentwise this season, and that showed up defensively.  I projected a 4.5 run defense and 60% pass defense, numbers generally worse than in past seasons.  Oklahoma State allowed 4.8 per carry and nearly 61% through the air. 

The run defense will be challenged in this game, but maybe with the backup QB, the Cowboys with all the extra bowl practices can field a decent pass defense.  There was no consistency in 2023, with four outings at 50% or less, and another four at 65% or much worse.  It’s also worth noting that their pass yards allowed per completion was way too high.  The sack ratio was 25-13.  Kicking was 26-32, suggesting that drives stalled in the red zone.  

Texas Bowl Picks: Texas A&M Is Missing Folks..

Looking at the season, A&M’s numbers were decent.  While they were just 1-5 vs. bowl teams (costing Fisher his job), losses were close, by six to Alabama, seven at Tennessee, and three at Mississippi.  It doesn’t matter that they were building for 2024, as now the roster has been shredded. 

The offense underperformed, with a too low (for them) 4.15 yards-per-carry, but three QB’s did produce a 64.7% figure, with 24 pass touchdowns.  A skeleton staff will coach this bowl game, with the outgoing defensive coordinator staying on just for this game to be the main man.  Offensively, five starters are confirmed out.  3^rd string QB Jaylen Henderson was 36-54 vs. LSU and Mississippi State, with a 4-1 ratio, showing some mobility. 

These two defenses were not great, but maybe Oklahoma State’s defense is only a modest step up in class.  I think he is not much of a downgrade, but what concerns me is what coaches are left offensively to guide him.  All three RB’s remain, so the obvious game plan would be to feature the run vs. the suspect Cowboy defense.  I’m projecting 4.0 per carry in this spot, but more is possible. 

A&M will be missing its top two WR’s and at least two starting OL.  The WR’s will be missed, as both were capable of breaking long gainers.  The OL allowed 28 sacks, but at least they face a modest Cowboy pass rush.  Defensively, A&M will be without three starting DL, their top LB, and at least three starting DB’s. 

By my count, A&M will have one quality starter at each line of defense, with the rest of the unit former role players for the most part.  I’m not sure how the unit will perform overall, but I suspect a drop from the 3.6 per carry allowed, 58% pass defense, and 42 sacks achieved. 

Like Oklahoma State, A&M settled for too many field goal attempts (23-32).  During the season this team only allowed seven rushing TD’s.  What will happen now?  With so many defections, their already substandard kick return defense could be even more vulnerable.  A&M had a solid + penalty ratio, but I can’t see that being an edge here with all the new starters. 

Texas Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

 Can Oklahoma State fully establish the run?  If so, Bowman can pass on his terms.  If not, he has been prone to turnovers.  Which team can finish drives?  I believe the Cowboys will still yield yards defensively, but can A&M’s younger, less impactful WR’s achieve success inside the twenty, and can the revamped OL open rush holes? 

A&M’s sack production may be less than usual.  Can the young, raw DB’s hold up without such pressure?  Does A&M even want to be here?

Texas Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

At full strength (which is laughable here, and throughout this bowl season), A&M has a 10.5 Power Number edge and a point stat analysis edge (barely), but would NOT have been the rush pick.  T

he line has started to go below three points now.  If forced to make a play, I would LEAN A&M, but as we’ve seen, teams without motivation (Syracuse, especially without their QB), can be bad bowl bets. 

I think A&M runs well enough in this game to give them a chance, but I’ll probably pass on a play, because I can’t trust at least seven new defensive starters to contain Gordon and the Cowboy’s offense. 

The Pick: Texas Bowl Prediction!

Consider Oklahoma State WR Presley OVER his receiving yardage.

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