Cotton Bowl Best Bets : Missouri vs Ohio State Free Picks, Predictions 12/29

Missouri Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Best Bets: Cotton Bowl Predictions & Analysis

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky cottons up some free picks on The Cotton Bowl being played on December 29th, between Missouri and Ohio State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top free picks and best bets here.

Ohio State lost just once, but it knocked them out of the final four.  Losing 30-24 AT Michigan usually is not a disqualifying factor, but like Georgia and undefeated Florida State, they were left behind.  What a fantastic season for the Missouri Tigers. 

They had some close calls, but finished 10-2, losing only to LSU and Georgia.  It’s big boy time in the bowl season, with two top tier programs in the Cotton Bowl, but at least for the Buckeyes, it may not be big enough for them to have all hands on deck.

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Cotton Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Ohio State Analysis

 If this was 2024, both teams would be in the expanded playoffs.  It’s not, and Ohio State in particular will have players missing from this game.  The new QB is Devin Brown, who did not have a pass attempt the final six games of the season. 

It’s likely that the top three RB’s will miss this game.  Ohio State recruits extremely well, but this will be a stiff test for the untested replacements.  I do not expect elite WR Marvin Harrison to play.  If he shocks us and does play, I would expect it would be for only a short time.  TE Stover will also sit out, but WR Egbuka is expected to play. 

He emerged in 2022 but was injured and clearly less than 100% this season.  I endorse his playing in this game, which could elevate his draft stock.  I haven’t seen any OL opt-outs, but as we’ve noticed all bowl season, stay tuned.

Ohio State’s Defense Was Great… Except for ONE Game…

The Ohio State defense, expertly coached, was a top tier unit until they faced Michigan.  In games 1-11 they allowed 102 points!  The run defense was sound in all games except for Rutgers, and the pass defense was solid as well. 

Teams ended up completing 187 passes for a measly 1,769 yards!  It looks like some starters will opt-out, but there’s hope a majority will play in this game.  That’s important, because as noted below, Missouri has plenty of offensive playmakers. 

Kicking was solid as usual at 15-18.  The sack ratio slumped to 22-19.

Cotton Bowl Picks: Missouri Analysis To Make Your Best Bets

Missouri’s rush ratio improved, but was not lights-out great.  That can be a bit misleading, as RB Schrader ran for 1,499 yards and 13 touchdowns. 

His last five games saw him with a stat line of 133-841-6.3 per carry.  It’s completely unknown as of this writing (12/26) who will suit up defensively for Ohio State.  For now, my projection is 25-125.  QB Cook was on the injury report more than anyone else in college, but played nearly every snap. 

He completed over 66%, with a 20-6 ratio.  Not many teams passed effectively on Ohio State but I like Cook’s chances to have a decent game.  Luther Burden is a future first round draft pick.  Two other WR’s add depth, and I like their TE, who may fly a bit under the radar in this matchup.  Based on the sack numbers, Cook should have time to locate his targets. 

Ten of twelve opponents passed for 60% or more on the Tigers.  They will face a raw QB in this game, so maybe that improves.  Despite modest rush defensive numbers, the Tigers only allowed eight rushing TD’s.  They’ll face a largely untested backfield, so maybe that continues. 

Missouri enjoyed a slightly random +7 fumble advantage.  Kicking was 24-30.  Mevis has a big leg, and is full of confidence (sometimes too much so).  The overall sack ratio was 35-20.  

Cotton Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

How motivated will Ohio State be?  Missouri’s defense is decent, but not spectacular.  Can Devin Brown and the raw RB’s find success?  I don’t see it as a guarantee that WR Burden will be automatically successful, but the Tigers have a workhorse RB that has to be stopped.  If that doesn’t happen, does Burden beat the defense up top? 

Cotton Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

We’ve seen some lightly used QB’s have bowl success, but a larger majority fail.  Devin Brown has a tall task ahead of him, yet some of the Ohio State faithful wanted more from their starter (McCord). 

This line has flipped back and forth, and Ohio State is currently the small favorite.  That’s somewhat understandable, especially if Ohio State has additional game time opt-outs.  Once Harrison is announced out (90% chance), then Missouri may once again be favored.

The Pick: Cotton Bowl Prediction!

 Are all the opt-outs worth ten points?  Perhaps, but I think we’ll see a better-than-expected defensive showing from the Buckeyes.  It may take an extra turnover or two to get this done, but I’ll take a small stance with Ohio State, hoping Brown stays out of trouble.

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