Orange Bowl Free Picks : Florida State vs Georgia Best Bets, #1 Predictions 12/30

Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Bulldogs Best Bets: Orange Bowl Analysis & Massive Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers huge betting picks on The Orange Bowl being played on December 30th, between Florida State and Georgia. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Florida State (FSU) ran the table, going 13-0.  Their reward: A NO vote to the NCAA final four.  Two-time NCAA title holder Georgia was 12-0 until losing to Alabama by only three points!  Their reward: A NO vote to the NCAA final four. 

Neither team wants to be here, but one team is going to be massively more affected than the other.  This game is impossible to handicap.

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Orange Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Florida State Overview

Offensively, FSU ran 5.2 per carry, and QB Travis was solid.  Missing this game will be their top two QB’s, top two RB’s, top two WR’s and their strong TE option.  If you want a silver lining, their OL was not affected nearly as much.  QB Glenn takes over. 

He was 8-21 for 55 yards vs. Louisville’s sound defense in the ACC title game.  The good news is that he now knows he’ll be the starter, and gets valuable practice time.  The bad news is that facing Georgia’s defense is not the ideal opponent to be facing.  The leading RB left had 190 yards, at just 3.8 per carry. 

The leading WR left had twelve receptions.  Six of their top fifteen tacklers are gone, including their elite edge rusher.  The only area relatively unaffected (we think) would be LB.  Three guys who got into the opposing team’s backfield do remain. 

To my knowledge, FSU’s fine PK is active (18-20).  So is their kick returner.  Assume that their 45-24 sack ratio and 47% pass defense edges will disappear.

Orange Bowl Video Picks

Orange Bowl Picks: Georgia Strengths and Weaknesses

 QB Beck has stated he WILL play in this game.  His worst performance was 65%.  The top two RB’s are available.  Edwards and Milton shared the load, and combined for 27 rushing TD’s.  Elite TE Brock Bowers will not play. 

In my world only about 5-7 NCAA players have legitimate reasons to sit out a 2023 bowl game.  Bowers would be one of the 5-7 guys.  There’s decent, but not spectacular WR talent.  This is clearly not the Georgia defense of the past few seasons.  The run defense “slumped” to 4.1 allowed per carry (3.0 average past four seasons). 

The pass defense remained steady, averaging 56%, almost the same as the previous four seasons.  I suspect this defense will have a huge edge in every area except “perhaps” the pass rush (29 Georgia defensive sacks). 

Even that could tilt in Georgia’s favor depending on how FSU’s QB looks in the pocket.  Georgia comes into this game with a +6:38 time of possession edge.  It could get ugly.  Their 3^rd down offensive success rate is extremely high (55%).  Their return defense is more than solid.  The OL allowed just 12 sacks.  Kicking was good at 21-25.

Orange Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

There’s no Marvin Harrison for Georgia to defend in this game.  All Georgia has to do is prevent the splash offensive or special team play, as it sure would appear that FSU will be less than fluid offensively.  Expect trick plays, but FSU must convert at least one of these plays to stay in range. 

The only other pathway for FSU is to find a RB to “expose” the so-called softer Georgia rush defense.  At least a few FSU players who had success getting to the QB (with pressures) are scheduled to play.  Maybe they can make a big play on a key down.

Orange Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

Motivation matters.  FSU has NONE.  Let’s look at the bowl results thus far. 

I wrote going in that Syracuse, with the exception of QB Shrader, had a severe lack of motivation, while South Florida was thrilled to play the game.  When Shrader opted out, it became a bloodbath.  In Duke’s situation (loss of Head Coach, staff), most of their starting defensive players opted to play even though they were leaving the program through the portal. 

That was a real surprise.  James Madison was at a coaching and personnel disadvantage, and facing a disciplined Military school was not the best formula for success.  As I write this, Tulane, down their coach, QB, and several other players, seem to be no match for a motivated Virginia Tech team. 

I’m not giving the 17.5 points in this game, which might even tick higher as the list of FSU no-shows grows, but there’s just no way to recommend FSU.  This is a sad day for college football, and for the bowl system.

The Pick: Orange Bowl Prediction!

PASS, but consider the UNDER for the second half IF you can find a shop that offers second half totals prior to the start of the game.  Remember, if this is indeed a rout, Georgia starters will not play the full game.

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