Fiesta Bowl Best Bets : Oregon vs Liberty Best Bets, Massive Predictions 1/1

Oregon Ducks vs Liberty Flames Best Bets : Fiesta Bowl Analysis & Massive Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some wild betting picks on The Fiesta Bowl being played on January 1st, between Liberty and Oregon. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Oregon scored 31 points or more in all 13 games.  36-33 and 34-31 losses to Washington knocked them out of the final four.  Liberty had one of the easiest schedules I’ve ever seen in the NCAA.  They ran the table to get this bowl invite. 

Their challenge will be to prove they belong on the same field as a Power Five team.  Power Five teams have fallen before in this type of game during the bowl season, but this seems like quite a tall task for the Flames.  Let’s take a further look into this matchup.

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Fiesta Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Oregon Offense

Oregon is one of the more well-balanced teams we’ve seen over the past several years.  They ran 6.15 per carry and QB Nix passed for an incredible 77%, with an unheard of 40-3 touchdown to interception ratio. 

Nix will play in this game, and likely be unstoppable, but his NFL-bound WR Troy Franklin (1,383 yards, 14 touchdowns) will not play.  Keep an eye on Tez Johnson, who is a solid 2^nd option as there are reports he may not play. 

Word to the wise: You have to stay on top of things this bowl season.  We saw Minnesota’s fine RB play after missing five weeks (a surprise) and he ran for 200+ yards in the win over Bowling Green, whose own RB did not play.  On Thursday, Arizona’s elite WR due played, and dominated as I expected, facing Oklahoma.  In more good news, stout RB Irving plans to play.  He’s a threat every time he touches the ball.

Duck Defense

There have been times where Oregon’s defense has let them down, but hiring Dan Lanning from the SEC has given them more of a presence on this side of the ball.  After allowing 4.6 per carry in Lanning’s initial season, Oregon allowed just 3.7 per carry this year. 

The near 65% pass defense also improved, down to 60%, which is no small feat when considering the QB talent the PAC 12 had this season.  Last year’s sack ratio was 16-14.  This year?  How about a fantastic 30-5 ratio!  Kicking was down, at 11-17.

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Fiesta Bowl Picks: Is Liberty Any Good?

Liberty matched Oregon’s rushing figures at 6.15 per carry as the new staff (from Coastal Carolina) lived up to their solid reputation.  I’ll talk schedule disparity later on, but suffice to say that averaging 303 rush yards per game is fantastic. 

QB Salter is highly experienced, and his ratio was 31-5.  I would have liked to see more than “just” 61% vs. the level of competition faced, but he’s a dual threat, rushing for 1,064 yards and nearly a seven yards-per-carry average. 

He has two extremely efficient RB’s and a decent array of pass-catching targets.  All, or almost all of their offensive starters will play in this game.  Liberty scored 31 or more points in every game.  The concern lies on the defensive side of the ball.  They allowed 24 or mor points eight times to far inferior teams.  They thrived on takeaways, with 21 defensive interceptions. 

The overall numbers were decent (3.9 allowed per carry, just under 58% passing), but Oregon’s offense will be on another level.  Two defensive starters may miss the game, which is not a dealbreaker, but isn’t ideal either. 

Overall, Liberty allowed 26 pass TD’s, which is high for a 13-0 team.  Time of possession was stout, at +7:25, and that is the path that Liberty must take to make this game interesting.  Kicking was not good, at 9-14.  The sack ratio was 25-9, which is not bad as the new staff made things better in pass protection (39 sacks allowed in 2022).  

Fiesta Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Most of my keys are on the Liberty side of things.  They absolutely have to win time of possession on their own terms.  Time of possession figures can be skewed if Oregon takes 90 seconds to score.  Liberty must consistently move the chains on offense and limit Oregon’s splash plays. 

Given their kicking game, it would be a confidence builder if that first field goal attempt is successful.  QB Salter must keep the Ducks off balance.  Can Liberty continue to created turnovers with pass interceptions?  If not, does Oregon score at will?

Fiesta Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

We’ve seen so many bowl games in this bowl season be decided by who is the more motivated team.  Opt-outs are changing (and ruining) the spirit of the bowl season.  I don’t think that applies to this game because Bo Nix is a different type of QB, and he is completely team-oriented.  Instead, this game is all about how much strength of schedule matters. 

I’ve NEVER seen a schedule as soft as what Liberty has, with not one team faced showing even an ounce of defensive ability.  I like Liberty’s offense and that might be their path to staying with the Ducks.

The Pick: Fiesta Bowl Expert Betting Recommendation!

The line opened Oregon -15.5 with a total of 65.5 points, implying Oregon would score in excess of 40 points. 

Tread carefully, but with the number now about 42 points my recommendation is still to consider Oregon’s team total OVER.  I’d also consider going over for longest pass TD and for some WR’s and RB’s (longest pass reception and longest run).  

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