Week 18 NFL Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice: NFC Matchups

NFC Betting Advice For Week 18

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 18 betting preview providing possible picks and predictions across critical NFC matchups! What are his takeaways from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFC Betting Preview for Week 18

Another NFL season has come and gone. This once-a-year report previews every week 18 game. PART TWO COVERS THE NFC GAMES. Within each preview will be what’s at stake, what my metrics say, how I’m approaching handicapping the game, and some tidbits related to player milestones and potential incentives.

NOTE: All listings for the NFC games are in Divisional order, and not in order with regard to the official rotation.
NOTE: Under personal season performance, you will see what season win futures (and in-season futures) I had. Under the prop players section, you will see what I believe are the remaining relevant milestones left for various players. You will NOT see the methodology behind my season win plays, and will NOT see what player and team proposition plays I made prior to the season. If interested, you can always contact me via twitter.

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Cowboys vs Commaners

Situation: Dallas won in controversial fashion last Saturday night, and coupled with Philly’s loss to Arizona, the Cowboys now have the inside track at winning the NFC East. They win the East with a win in this game or a loss from Philly. Dallas has the tiebreaker over Detroit for the #2 seed. If they do not win the NFC East then they fall to the #5 seed and travel to play the champion of the NFC South Division. Washington’s bags have been packed for weeks, but Dallas is probably the only team that the Commanders would be excited to play and beat, so maybe we get a better effort out of them.

Metrics: Dallas figures to win the turnover battle. Running just 4.1 per carry, the Cowboys have underachieved in this metric. The host history in this series yields no edge. I have no last game or other situations that fit this game.

Decisions: I believe THIS IS THE ONE TEAM Washington would actually care about beating, but Sam Howell is too error-prone for my tastes. That’s what kept me off this team last week. If Brissett starts, I may try them, especially if the line reaches 14, however, if I see motivational issues at any time, I would be willing to fade this team, as last game home field is not an edge.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I had no season win plays on either team.

FYI: For prop players, Dak Prescott leads all QB’s with 32 touchdown passes. CeeDee Lamb is 66 yards behind Tyreek Hill and if this game is in hand, Dallas may try to pad his stats. RB Pollard needs 65 yards to reach 1,000. DB Bland leads the NFL with eight interceptions and will know before the game what happened with his one pursuer (Stone, Baltimore). For Washington, WR McLaurin needs 54 yards to reach 1,000 and I suspect this team will try to get him to that number.

Eagles vs Giants

Situation: The loss to Arizona wasn’t necessarily expected, but did put an exclamation point on the fact that the Eagles never played like a top five team all season long. They will be the 5th overall seed unless they win this road game and Dallas loses their road game at Washington. The Giants are out of the playoffs and have some critical roster decisions to make.

Metrics: Considering the NYG have one of the best turnover ratios, their current record could be even worse than what we see. To blame? How about 83 sacks allowed. What a disaster. The rest of the stat sheet between the two teams shows no edges, meaning Philly’s numbers are below seasonal expectations. The NYG hold two very strong last game indicators, but as it turns out, Philly matches it this year with a team specific positive indicator based on resent results, plus a lower-than-expected line.

Decisions: I wanted and might still want to take the NYG, but that requires the line to be higher. I’ll revisit closer to kickoff.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I easily won my UNDER season win total on the Giants.

FYI: For prop players, RB Barkley needs 84 yards to reach 1,000 yards rushing. That might be doable. QB Hurts needs 197 yards to reach 4,000 passing. Depending on this score, and the Dallas score, we’ll see what is possible.

Vikings vs Lions

Situation: Home to the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings inserted a new QB and promptly turned in another poor performance, falling 33-10. Now they need plenty of help to make the playoffs. They need to win this game, plus hope for losses from Green Bay, Seattle, and either a Tampa loss or a New Orleans loss. As things turned out last week, Detroit was just a two-point conversion away from a shot at the #1 overall seed. The Lions would need to win this game and hope both Dallas and Philly are upset in order to move up to the 2nd overall seed.

Metrics: QB Mullins gave away the first game just two weeks ago with a four-interception performance. Turnovers have destroyed this team all season long, and it’s not even close as compared to any other NFL team. Defensive coordinator Flores has done a pretty good job, but that 70% pass defense is the worst in the NFL. I do not have “elite” indicators for this matchup, but what I have favors the Lions (three small to medium indicators).

Decisions: Clearly the Lions want to erase the bad taste in their mouth from last week. They will weigh that with a determination as to how long to play their starters with the likely assumption that one of Philly or Dallas will win on Sunday. That’s likely why the line has dropped to -3. With equal turnovers, Minny was the better team two weeks ago, but I’m thinking of either laying the -3 (value), or just playing the Lions in the first half.

Personal Seasonal Performance: Last week’s results clinched my Minnesota UNDER season win ticket. I also cashed a couple of in-season NFC North tickets on the Lion’s (both at +100 odds).

FYI: For prop players, Rookie RB Gibbs needs 85 yards to reach 1,000. What are Detroit’s intentions for him in this game? WR St. Brown needs one touchdown to reach a total of ten. For the Vikings, DE Hunter has 15.5 sacks. This won’t come into play if Watt gets even one sack on Saturday. Rookie WR Addison needs one touchdown reception to reach ten. If you can trust Minny’s QB play, Justin Jefferson could be a big part of the offense as he needs 118 yards to reach 1,000.

Bears vs Packers

Situation: Chicago is playing inspired football, but will not make the playoffs this season. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Green Bay, but their upset win at Minnesota now enables the Packers to control their own destiny. Win and they are in. If they lose, they can still make the playoffs with losses by Minnesota, Seattle and either Tampa or New Orleans.

Metrics: Sacks against Justin Fields have slowed down, but Green Bay is at home and will be all out to sack him as they try to secure a playoff berth. If that doesn’t happen, look for Fields and the RB unit to do damage on the ground. It appears that Aaron Rodgers still owns part of the Bears. Despite playing strong football down the stretch, can we really take Chicago seriously if they can’t get over the hump? Most of my situations heavily favor the Packers, but the lingering negative indicator is all about delivering in “must win” games. Teams with Green Bay’s portfolio are 42.5% vs. the spread (sample size 215).

Decisions: I have more work and thought to do before reaching a decision for the straight play, but I like how Chicago is playing offensively right now, and coupled with the projected “decent but cold” weather, the OVER is in strong consideration.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I did not have season win plays on either team

FYI: For prop players, it’s a longshot, but QB Love is just two touchdown passes behind Dak Prescott and one behind Brock Purdy (who may not play much) for the NFL lead. Love also needs just 157 passing yards to reach 4,000.

Buccaneers vs Panthers

Situation: Tampa was unable to clinch the NFC South Division last week but gets another chance this week at 1-15 Carolina. If they lose, then the Bucs can still make the playoffs if Seattle loses and Green Bay loses or ties. Carolina is long gone.

Metrics: Tampa has a massive edge in sack ratio metrics. On paper, neither team will light up the board running the ball, at least not without a large number of carries. Tampa is favored on the road, yet carries a week 18 NFL indicator in their favor.

Decisions: Carolina is roster deficient and I can’t back them here. This is a likely NO PLAY.
Personal Seasonal Performance: Carolina UNDER their season win total was my 2nd biggest position. I lost my Tampa UNDER season win total, misjudging how much the veterans on this team would contribute.

FYI: For prop players, Byrce Young is 217 yards away from 3,000 through the air. RB White has 253 carries, but for just 915 yards. That’s terrible, but they’ll likely push to try and get him to 1,000. WR Evans (13) leads Tyreek Hill (12) in TD catches.

Falcons vs Saints

Situation: Somehow, these two teams are alive despite awful performances (including coaching miscues) throughout the season. The winner of this game has to hope that Tampa loses to Carolina. If that happens, the winner will host Dallas or Philly as the #4 seed. The Saints can make the playoffs even if Tampa loses, but they would need a win here, plus losses by Seattle and Green Bay. Other scenarios exist if certain games end in a tie, but that’s another story.

Metrics: Atlanta turns the ball over too much, and they may be 2nd to the Minnesota Vikings in games cost because of turnovers. The only other stat sheet nugget shows New Orleans underachieving running the ball, and they may have a less than 100% Alvin Kamara for this game. Taysom Hill had 81 scrimmage yards in their initial meeting, but as per usual, Dennis Allen tends to forget about him in most game plans. USE HIM! It’s no secret that in this matchup, the underdog thrives. As a host, the Saints are just under 50% straight-up in the series.

Decisions: I NEVER like taking the favorite in any New Orleans game. Blindly taking the dog in this game is a 62.5% proposition over a 72-game sample size. By Power Numbers, the line would be -4, which is where it was for a decent amount of time and was also the number I got (Atlanta +4). My current preference is Heinicke over Ridder but regardless, Atlanta by my indictors has a 68% cover probability if turnovers for this game come out equal.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I won with Atlanta season win totals UNDER, but part of the win was hedged in a middle try.

FYI: For prop players, the only player of note is Atlanta rookie RB Robinson, who needs 52 yards on the ground to reach 1,000.

Rams vs 49ers

Situation: Credit Sean McVay for getting this young team into the playoffs. They are likely going to be the 6th seed (not sure what the parameters are for possibly falling to the 7th seed). San Francisco has clinched the #1 overall seed. This game will most likely be more of a scrimmage, with both teams resting their starters for some or all of the game.

Metrics: Nothing much to report on the stat sheet, which is a tribute to what LA has done in 2023.

Decisions: This is an important game for Sam Darnold. As I write this on Tuesday, I do not know what his usage will be in the game. Clearly, he wants to prove he can run the offense if needed. RB McCaffrey will NOT play, but Deebo Samual wants to play, which I do NOT endorse for selfish reasons (I have some wiggle room, but have an outstanding MIDDLE opportunity). For LA, I’d rest Stafford and their bell cow RB, as they need to be fresh for the playoffs. If the line goes too low I would consider the 49ers, with my other lean being 2nd half UNDER, as these teams by the 3rd quarter will just want to shorten the game.

Personal Seasonal Performance: Hats off to LA for their performance. This was a deserved UNDER loss on my part.

FYI: For prop players, I doubt Brock Purdy will play all that much, but he sits one TD pass behind Dak Prescott for the NFL lead.

Seahawks vs Cardinals

Situation: Seattle is a very young team on both sides of the football and it showed at times throughout the year.  In a dead even game, playoff hopes were diminished with the loss hosting Pittsburgh, but there’s still a path open for them.  First, they must win this game.  If that happens, Seattle secures the #7 seed if Green Bay loses.  

Metrics: Neither team features a shutdown defense.  QB Kyler Murray has elevated Arizona’s offense.  Seattle has played well on the road, but not as a road favorite vs. the spread (they have some close wins on their road resume).  The good news is that they have played very well at this site!  

Decisions: There’s no question Arizona will be trying, so using Power Numbers is appropriate.  That could be the reason I may not play Seattle, as the line is too high.  I like their history (and confidence) at the site a little too much to pivot to Arizona.  It’s do or die for the Seahawks however, and coupled with Arizona’s improved offense, I will consider a play OVER the total.

Personal Seasonal Performance: Arizona was my TOP season win UNDER, right at the opener (5.5 wins), for various reasons.  

FYI: For prop players, Arizona RB Conner needs 110 yards to reach 1,000 on the ground.  The Cardinals may try to push for him to attain that milestone.  For Seattle, LB Bobby Wagner is in a four-person race to lead the NFL in total tackles.  The leader plays on Saturday night (Wagner trails by two), so he’ll know where things stand, although with Seattle focused on making the playoffs, this by itself is not going to affect motivation to be the #1 tackler.  Geno Smith sign

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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