The American Express Free Picks, Predictions and DFS Lineup Jan 18-21

The American Express Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the The American Express teeing off from Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and La Quinta Country Club in Palm Springs, California. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding the The American Express starting January 18th!

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The American Express	The American Express Betting Notes
When:	January 18-21
Where:	Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and La Quinta Country Club in Palm Springs, California
Defending Champ:	Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+800 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel

The American Express Course: The Playing Field

This week’s tournament is a strange tournament as they decided to add a bunch of weird things into one tourney.

First off, it’s a Pro-Am so expect the rounds to take a long time to play. Second, it’s played at three different courses.

Third, the cut isn’t made til after Saturday’s round. It’s a strange tourney, but it’s a really solid field this week with players like Justin Thomas, Minwoo Lee, Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger making their first start of 2024.

It will also feature the first two winners of 2024…Chris Kirk and Grayson Murray…congrats if you predicted that 🙂

The American Express Course: Waialae Country Club

Stadium Course will have two rounds, including the last round on Sunday. It won’t be windy this week so the course is fairly easy compared to other courses on tour, but probably the toughest of the week.

Water is in play on 7 holes, but the winner of the tournament will have to shoot -12 or better over two rounds on this course in my opinion.

Tournament Course will have one round. Probably the second hardest course they’ll play this week, but it’s still easy. There are 5 holes with water in play, but with no wind in the forecast, the winner will have to shoot -5 at least on this course.

La Quinta will have one round, and is the easiest course they’ll play this week. There are 7 holes with water in it, but the greens are easy to putt on, and the rough is easy to hit out of. I won’t be surprised if we see a -9 or -10 on this course, and the winner will have to shoot -6 at least here.

When the wind isn’t present, this tournament gives up some of the lowest scores of the year, and there won’t be any wind so the winner will probably shoot -25 or better, so once again…anyone with a hot putter will be near the top.

The American Express: Total Strokes Gained Last 6 Months

1. Scottie Scheffler +2.87 

2. Patrick Cantlay +2.25 

3. Xander Schauffele +2.20 

4. Sungjae Im +1.50 

5. Rickie Fowler +1.42 

6. Jason Day +1.37 

7. Tony Finau +1.33 

8. Wyndham Clark +1.26 

9. Eric Cole +1.25 

10. Sam Burns +1.23

The American Express: Players That Can Trip You Up

Scottie Scheffler – He’s the highest priced favorite by a wide margin, and I’m sure he’s going to have a big week, but he hasn’t finished top 10 here in three straight tournaments here, and he’s one of the worst putters in the field this week.

Whoever wins is going to have to be lights out with the putter for all four rounds, and Scheffler is -0.47 strokes gained putting the last 6 months.

He played really good at The Sentry, but he’s going to need to finish Top 2 to return value at this price, and I don’t trust his putting over four rounds.

Chris Kirk – This could be a let down spot for Chris Kirk who won The Sentry, and then finished 18th last week, but last week was a weak field, and his numbers at The Sentry were crazy.

He was +1.11 putting at The Sentry, and last week that dropped to -0.70, and around the green he was +1.05 at The Sentry, and last week he was -0.80. It’s a better field this week than last week, and I feel like this could be a big letdown spot after a win and an 18th in Hawaii.

Tom Kim – He finished 6th here last year, but he was terrible at The Sentry and I can’t invest him as the 5th highest favorite in this field.

He won the Shriners in the fall, but his putting was dismal at -1.12 at The Sentry, and while I don’t expect his putting to be that bad, if he struggles again he’s going to be nowhere close to returning value.

The American Express: DraftKings Darlings

Nicolas Echavarria $6500

This price seems pretty low for a guy who’s made the cut two weeks in a row, and last week he played well for the first three rounds, and then had a bad 4th round, but he’s +0.77 strokes gained putting the last two weeks, and at an easy course, putting will be the most important stat. He doesn’t hit the ball far off the tee, but you don’t need to here. At $6500, it’s worth the play that he makes the cut and gets us weekend points.

Patton Kizzire $7000

He was a great Draftkings Darling last week as he finished 13th, and he plays well at this tournament as he’s finished 53rd, 22nd, and 11th the last 3 years here. He made 5 cuts in a row in the fall, and then a solid finish last week so this feels like a great price on him.

Erik Van Rooyen $7500

Erik Van Rooyen has been playing good golf recently as he won the World Wide Tech Championship in the fall, and had three top 30 finishes before that. He finished 22nd at the Sentry and made the cut last week, and he finished 6th last year at this tournament.

Final Lineup: Nicolas Echavarria, Patton Kizzire, Erik Van Rooyen, Eric Cole $8800, JT  Poston $9100, Xander Schauffele $10,900

The American Express: Additional Betting Notes

-No golfer in this field has finished top 10 the last two years in a row -The last 3 months, Wyndham Clar is negative strokes gained tee to green, approach, around the green and putting.
-The last 3 months, Cameron davis is negative strokes gained tee to green, spproach and around the green, but +1.31 putting…#1 in the field.
-Sungjae Im has played here 5 years in a row, and has finished 18th or better in all 5 tourneys.

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