Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Free Picks and Best Bets – AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on January 28th at 3:00pm ET. What should you look at from a betting perspective? Get his NFL Playoff betting analysis now!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Sunday, January 28	NFL Playoff Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:	Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
Total:	44.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:	3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
TV:	CBS

Chiefs vs Ravens Free Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Round Takeaways

I could write a book about this, but I’ll try to be brief. Buffalo’s game plan was superb at the start, as they kept Josh Allen out of harm’s way by utilizing his legs, and RB Cook’s legs to attack KC’s run D weakness.

Mahomes also looked sharp early on, but was kept off the field in the 3rd quarter with Buffalo’s clock stretching drives.

The game took a left turn on Buffalo’s failed fake punt attempt. For the Bills, they went away from what worked as Josh Allen was charged to throw deep against KC’s strong secondary. Their late drive to tie or win the game was mismanaged, and the missed field goal was a killer.

For KC, putting the ball in Hardeman’s hands near the goal line wasn’t ideal, although it’s a little bit random that the touchback rule came into play at the goal line.

Point of Concern with Kansas City’s Offense

What I didn’t like was how KC’s offense got out of rhythm once they got the ball back. Kelce and WR Rice were not a big part of the final quarter.

The star of the game was easily RB Pacheco. I noted that he runs angry. He ran 15-97, and KC moves on to the AFC final. One final KC note. KC’s defense produced zero sacks.

Chiefs vs Ravens Predictions: Baltimore Ravens Divisional Round Takeaways

Baltimore’s defense came to play, as evidenced by holding the Texan’s to just three offensive points, but the real story was how Todd Monken and the Raven’s offense delivered a second half knockout punch.

Houston barely saw the field in the second half, as Baltimore controlled clock with a 24-0 shutout after the game was tied at the half. This is exactly why Monken was hired.

I projected Lamar Jackson to hit 70% (21-30) in this game, and he bettered that by going 16-22. Houston was held to 213 total yards, but in a surprise, Baltimore had no defensive sacks (60 during the regular season).

I was right about Justice Hill taking carries away from Gus Edwards, which actually gives Baltimore versatility in the run game.

The one surprise? Odell Beckham was not more involved offensively. He had just one reception, and just the one target.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction

Baltimore is built to run the ball to set up the pass and KC is built more to defend the pass. We often talk about 3rd down conversion rates (and 3rd down stop rates) but my initial thought is that 1st down will be the important down when Baltimore’s offense is on the field.

I believe Kansas City wants to force Lamar Jackson to throw on their terms, and I also believe they want to see if Lamar is up to the challenge. Based on how they fared vs. both Houston and Buffalo, the Chiefs better be prepared to stop the run game.

With that in mind, the play-action pass success rate might help determine how effective Baltimore’s offense will be.

Neither defense recorded a sack this past weekend. Mahomes will continue to utilize TE Kelce and WR Rice, which should come as no surprise.

Additionally, RB Pacheco will be tasked once again to pick up the tough yards.

The PICK

The line on this game opened Baltimore -3 but is trending toward -3.5. My updated Power Numbers show -3 to be too low. The Pat Mahomes/Andy Reid combination is tough to bet against, but Baltimore -3 has some value.

Lean: Baltimore Ravens -3

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