Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Free Picks and Best Bets – NFC Championship

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on January 28th at 6:30pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his NFL Playoff betting analysis now!

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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Sunday, January 28	NFL Playoff Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:	Detroit Lions +7 vs San Francisco 49ers
Total:	50.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:	6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT
Arena:	Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
TV:	FOX

Lions vs 49ers Free Picks: Lions Divisional Round Takeaways

This game was all about the NFL draft! As someone who has now produced 43 NFL draft reports, I can tell you that building through the draft process, while not easy, can be quite rewarding when done right. The Lions had an above average draft in 2022, and killed the draft in 2023.

The stars of this game included QB Goff of course, who was part of the trade that enabled the Lions to begin their draft journey.

DE Hutchinson was from the 2022 draft, but here’s what they got in the 1st three rounds this past draft. RB Gibbs, used smartly during the season, totaled 114 scrimmage yards and a TD.

TE LaPorta, who had a massive year, added nine catches in this game coming off injury. Safety Branch, who was electric all season long, led the Lions in tackles in this game while expertly blitzing QB Mayfield. LB Jack Campbell generally contributes by helping to stop the run.

The Lions eventually solved Tampa’s blitz scheme while contributing four defensive sacks on their own. Moving forward, their defense still needs to play better vs. the pass.

I indicated that I expected the Lions to be more aggressive in this game and not sit on the lead like last week vs. the LA Rams. With a playoff win already under their belts, Detroit did just that.

Free Picks for the NFC Championship: 49ers Divisional Round Takeaways

It rained throughout the game, which seemed to have more of an effect on San Fran and QB Purdy than it did on Green Bay.

The Packers surprisingly exceeded expectations in several areas and in my opinion, they outplayed and outcoached the 49ers.

Aaron Jones (18-108) became the first RB in over 50 games to exceed the century mark on the 49ers in the ground game. QB Love had many WR’s come open vs. the 49ers secondary, which was expected.

As for the 49ers, the early exit for Deebo Samuel (shoulder) had an effect, as Deebo was going to be a big part of their game plan, as evidenced by the early play calling. Purdy, perhaps due to the weather, was to put it mildly, inaccurate, wildly missing his targets. Purdy was extremely lucky that Green Bay dropped a pick-six interception, and he could have had two more picks.

Green Bay made three “mistakes” in the final quarter. 1st came the missed field goal. 2nd was not calling a timeout prior to McCaffrey’s touchdown run, which cost them 30+ seconds. Finally, on 1st down, Love threw the interception across the field when throwing the ball away was the right thing to do.

San Fran should learn from this. Here are three more observations about the 49ers. Clock management at the end of the first half was atrocious.

I will spare you the details, but it could not have been any worse. Like with Baltimore and KC, San Fran recorded no defensive sacks.

This is a high-priced defensive line, with Chase Young added during the season. Finally, RB McCaffrey saved their season. His two touchdown runs were the result of broken tackles. He willed this team to the endzone.

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions:

The Lions will likely treat this game like it will be played in an arcade. To explain, the Lions have to believe that they will need to put up 30 or more points to win this game. That’s how I would approach this game, even if it turns out that their defense can slow down the 49ers.

Operating on that assumption, I believe Detroit will not be timid to test the 49er secondary. Jamison Williams had a solid game this past weekend and now the young WR might be tasked to have his biggest game on the biggest stage. My 1st thought is that Goff will attempt at least 40 passes.

Sure, if things are working, they will want to keep the San Fran offense off the field, but my game plan would be to pass the ball early to later set up the run and draw play.

For a reference point, longtime fans of the game can think Oakland Raiders football under John Madden way back in the day.

San Francisco needs to get Purdy in better rhythm early. For me, that means shorter and easier throws at 1st to build up confidence. Eventually they will need to get Aiyuk involved in the aerial game to stretch the field.

While the 49ers should have success against this defense, my very clear watch point is how Purdy and the 49er OL handle Detroit’s safety blitzes. If he misses wide open receivers, confidence goes down. Hit Aiyuk in stride and confidence goes up.

I do not know Deebo Samuels’s status but will assume for now he will play. Teamed with Aiyuk, this would be a coverage problem for the Lions.

The Betting Picks!

Without Samuel if seems that the 49ers are less explosive. Readers need to check his status carefully. A week ago, I suggested that the line on this matchup would be San Fran -7 or most likely -7.5.

With my updated Power Numbers, I now have San Fran as either -6.5 or a weak -7. I show no value at the current line, but I’ll be watching weather reports to determine if the total is worth acting upon. Rain last week curbed my enthusiasm for recommending San Fran’s team total over vs. the Packers.

If we get a clean track in this game, AND if we get Deebo Samuel in play, I may be recommending a play on OVER for this game. I’ll make that determination late in the week, so be sure to follow me for an update.

Lean: Over 50.5 Points Scored (If Samuel Plays and No Inclement Weather)

The Friday Inside Blitz podcast is at Noon, PST, with Cris and Ted. You can also catch me talking NFL with Jeff Dawson at 2:00 PM PST.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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