NFL Playoffs Wildcard Round Predictions and Odds Jan 15-17
NFL Playoffs Wildcard Round Betting Preview
SportsMemo NFL handicapper JM Sports offers his NFL Playoffs Wildcard Round breakdown for January 15-17.
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Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
In the first match-up we see two teams that aren’t often in the headlines after the regular season, at
least in the past couple years. Las Vegas comes in covering 3 straight games, and an impressive 5-1 as an
underdog of more than three points. They are allowing just 274 YPG in the last four weeks (including a 440 yard
outing allowed last week against the Chargers), yet they are 2-12 in the turnover battle in the last five weeks. Las
Vegas is #6 in passing YPG and that is the issue Cincinnati has faced, sitting at #26 in terms of passing
YPG allowed. Las Vegas has struggled in the red zone, coming in at #27 in red zone percentage, and #22 in
goal-to-go percentage.
Underrated Bengals Defense
That on the other hand, is where Cincinnati defense gets it done, they may be #18 in red zone percentage, but they are #2 on defense in goal-to-go situations. Las Vegas does possess the defense that my prove to be difficult for Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase, posting the #6 defense in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed. Cincinnati is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four games, they may have a 4-4-1 against the spread record at home, but they are 4-2 against the spread off a straight up loss, and 3-0 off a loss as a dog. Cincinnati has put up points, enough points to help reach a 4-2-2 over/under record in the last eight, they also are +4 in the turnover battle in the last four, even though they have been sacked 23 times in the last six games.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4)
While Brady has taught us that Belichick wasn’t the only reason they were winning in New
England, but when you look at the team this year, you can’t say it was all Tom Brady, Belichick is a
coach that is hard to bet against. They have failed to cash in on three of the last four games, but they are 4-2 off a
straight up loss and 3-0 off a straight up loss as a favorite. They are out-gaining opponents by almost 85 YPG in the last eight, stemming from a rush game that has ran for over 5 YPC in the past 3 games. This is also the second time that these two teams have matched up, and New England is 1-2 against the spread against teams they have already played this year.
AFC East Rivalry Rematch
Buffalo has covered all three of their games against repeat opponents. Even though the Bills put up less then 30 points last week, but they are 5-2 following a game that they put up less then 30. New England and Buffalo have two of the most exciting defenses in the league this season. New England is #4 in YPG allowed and #5 in YPP allowed, while Buffalo takes the #1 spot in both those categories. New England has struggled against the rush, but they are the 2nd best defense in the league against the pass. They are #1 in INT%, #5 on 3rd down, #2 in the red zone & #4 in goal-to-go situations.
Buffalo posses the best defense in the league against the pass, but they are #17 in goal-to-go situations, a big drop from New England’s offensive ranking inside a goal-to-go situation. Regardless, this Bills defense can definitely play like one of the top teams as well, Josh Allen and the offense are #1 in YPG & YPP, on top of being the #1 passing offense, and clutch on 3rd down, 4th down, AND in the red zone. Now, these teams know each other well, they are meeting for the 3rd time this season, splitting the season series.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
Philadelphia’s offense is flying high, being one of the two best teams in the run game on offense, putting up big plays on 3rd down and in the red zone, when they truly matter. Philadelphia falls pretty much in the middle in their offensive stats, but they sit inside the top-10 on the defensive side. While they have struggled to get sacks and get back to the QB, they have limited the yardage by being a definitive top-10 defense against the rush, and definitely in the top half of defenses against the pass.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are again one of the top offenses in the league, putting up a #2 in YPG & #1 in passing YPG. They are #1 against the sack on the offensive side of the ball and they have limited turnovers. All the while, their defense is out there making a name for themselves yet again. Tampa Bay is in the top-10 in YPP, including #3 in rushing yards allowed & #4 in passing yards per attempt. Tampa is also a top-10 defense in the red zone, which has helped them achieve the #4 ranking in PPG differential, outscoring opponents by over 9 PPG, and out-gaining opponents by almost 75 YPG.
Tampa Bay Tries to Limit Mistakes
The two teams matched up in Week 6, Tampa Bay took the win by 6 points, but they failed to cover the 7 point spread on Philadelphia’s home field. Philadelphia put up just 16 first downs & just 213 yards, that was arguably Tampa’s best defensive game, held them to one more yard than their season low of 212. Tampa Bay committed seven penalties for 120 yards, which is the 2nd most penalties in a game, and the most penalty yards in a single game, this season. If Tampa can limit the penalties, and play like they did in week 6, they should be able to cover this spread.
San Fransisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
San Fransisco has quietly raised their way to the top of the leader boards in a few of theses statistics. This team had some major question marks to start out the year, but now they are #1 in the league in yards per play, along with being the #1 team in passing yards per attempt and red zone percentage. San Fransisco has risen their way up to #7 in the rushing game, with the help of Samuel, and they are in the top-12 for passing yards per game. The team has struggled in the INT% category, with more picks than most teams would like, but they are still putting up just over 25 PPG.
Their defense is even scarier, #3 in YPG allowed, #7 in rushing YPG allowed, #6 in passing YPG allowed, #3 in sack percentage and #7 in goal-to-go situations. They can come at you in basically any situation and hold the advantage. Dallas may be the hardest offense that this team is going to face this year, with as many weapons as any other team, and sitting atop the charts in YPG. They are #9 in rushing yards allowed per game, and top-2 in the passing YPG category. Dallas is #8 in INT%, #6 in sack % and they are 6th in the red zone (#2 in goal-to-go situations). Dallas’s defense on the other hand has had some question marks, but they have been able to step up in some key situations.
49ers Poised for an Upset
San Fransisco has covered three out of their last four games and eight out of the last 11. Which could be helped by the fact that San Fransisco is out-gaining their opponents by almost 153 YPG in the last four. Holding four straight opponents under the 280 yard marker, forcing 4 turnovers and sacking the quarterback 15 times in that four game stretch. Dallas started the year off by covering seven straight games, but since that mark ended, they are 6-4 against the spread. They are also 5-3 against the spread at home, but they are 5-2 against the spread after putting up 30 or more points this season. Dallas has also put up over 424 YPG in their last three games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Pittsburgh is looking to make one last run with Big Ben, but will they be able to get it done in Arrowhead? Pittsburgh is struggling on the offenses side of the ball, sitting in the bottom 3rd of most statistical offensive categories. Although Big Ben has protected the ball well and the team is #6 in INT% on offense, the defense has been a huge difference maker, with TJ Watt and the defensive line sitting at #2 in sack% in the league on defense, and the secondary that is #9 in passing yards allowed, and shutting down teams in goal-to-go situations, and the best team in the league covering against it. Kansas City sits atop most of the offense stat lists, but their defense started hot at the beginning of the year, but the defense has taken a few steps back.
Steelers Stall Early in Games
Pittsburgh has covered three out of their last four games, but they are just .500 against the spread (4-4) away from Heinz field. They have also struggled early, they have failed to cover six out of the last eight games in the first quarter, and failing to cover seven out of the last nine games in the first half. Pittsburgh has produced 20 or less first downs in seven straight games, while Kansas City has only been held under 20 first downs in two games all season. Pittsburgh has forced nine turnovers in the last four, and gotten 25 sacks in the last six games. Kansas City has lost back-to-back games against the spread, but they have covered four straight games at home.
Kansas City is averaging over 410 YPG in the last five, and they have dominated the turnover battle, they have forced at least one turnover in 11 of the last 12 games, which includes 21 forced turnovers in the last nine games (while they have turned the ball over just six times in the last nine). Kansas City has jumped out hot and just continued to pile on in their recent games, they are 10-2 against the spread in the firs quarter of the last 12 games, and they have covered in seven of their last nine games.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Arizona & Los Angeles both, have an explosive pass game and both are ranked in the top-10 in passing yards per game and top-10 in yards per attempt. The difference is Arizona has a major rush game as well, with the two headed monster coming out of the backfield, sitting in the top-10 in rushing yards per game too. Kyler Murray has avoided throwing the INT’s (#9 in the NFL in INT%), and they have been capitalizing on 3rd of 4th down (top-10 in both).
Matt Stafford has played with an offense immensely different from what he is accustomed to in the recent years, but he is sitting at #28 and has handed the ball to the other team more than the Rams would care for. Their defense has been the saving grace, they are #5 against the run game, they are top-10 in INT% (regardless of what Kyler Murray does) and they are top-5 in sack%. While Los Angeles has struggled to stop teams on 3rd & 4th down, they have been hard to penetrate in the red zone.
Cardinals Seeing Road Success
This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams this year, and they split the season series. While these teams know each other well, Arizona may have a slight edge seeing as they are 8-1 against the spread on the road this season, and they are 6-0 as an underdog (covering those 6 games by an average total of 19 PPG). Los Angeles comes in off back-to-back against the spread losses, and they are just 2-4 at home, they have only covered 30% of their 10 games as a favorite and they have committed eight turnovers in the last four weeks.
Interesting NFL Playoff Facts
Teams have only met for the 3rd time 24 times since 2001 prior to this season. This year we have two match-ups, with Arizona/Los Angeles and New England/Buffalo. The away team has the advantage straight up, winning 13-11, the favorite is 14-10, and as a home favorite, the teams are 11-10 straight up. When it comes to stats against the spread, the away team is 16-8 in the third meeting, the underdog is 15-9 and an away underdog is 14-7 against the spread.
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NFL Playoffs Wildcard Round Stat Sheet
NFL handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports put together a weekly NFL stat sheet that features game logs and key statistical notes for each team. Don’t place a bet on Monday’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns clash before diving into this FREE download.
NFL Opening Line Report | Week 18 Preview
The NFL Playoffs are upon us. Professional handicappers Andy Lang, Matt Josephs and Andrew McInnis break down the NFL Wild Card slate from a prop betting perspective, with a focus on NFL player props, DFS recommendations and fantasy football plays to help you enjoy the football action from a different angle.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Wildcard games from your desktop or phone.
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